real peak years

[klousia]

I seem to remember that the stat freak types say the peak years for baseball players is 27-32... is this correct?

[goldfinger77]

27 is usually considered THE peak year, so 26-29 is usually considered the prime of a player's career. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule. See: Steve Finley, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Martinez, Luis Gonzalez, Barry freakin Bonds, etc.

[sportsnut]

You'll have to excuse Bonds, since he didn't have the money for his steroids...erm, I mean "peak", until just recently

[Clay Dreslough]

I think Bill James did work pegging the average peak at 26-29, noting that more players decline after 30 than you might realize. BUT, this research is old, and doesn't include data from Bonds' career etc.

In Baseball Mogul, a player's peak usually falls between 26 and 31.

Clay

[klousia]

thanks Clay

[goldfinger77]

What's amazing about Bonds is the fact that he's been so good that he probably single-handedly skews the data. Unbelievable.

[RotoChamp2]

Originally posted by Clay Dreslough
I think Bill James did work pegging the average peak at 26-29, noting that more players decline after 30 than you might realize. BUT, this research is old, and doesn't include data from Bonds' career etc.

In Baseball Mogul, a player's peak usually falls between 26 and 31.

Clay

Indeed, Bill James did do some work on this topic. Here's an outtake from an interview with James back in April, 2003:

From Baseballmusings.com
Baseball Musings: There are a number of players who are having phenomenal success late in their careers. Barry Bonds and Randy Johnson stand out. Do players still peak at 27 has the peak age gone up? If not, do peak years stretch longer than the 25-27 year time frame?

Bill James: It was 25-29, not 25-27. Players still peak at 27, and are declining with the same frequency that they always did (actually, there is some slight evidence that the rate of decline from aging is INCREASING.) Bonds was born in 1964--but so was Will Clark, Jose Canseco, Dwight Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, Ozzie Guillen, Roberto Kelly, Luis Polonia, Jeff King, Pete Incaviglia, Mike McFarlane, Bobby Witt, Jose Lind, Mitch Williams, Rob Dibble, Joe Magrane, Billy Ripken, Greg Hibbard, Kevin Reimer and Doug Strange. Bonds is simply not typical of the group.

Randy Johnson was born in 1963, but so were Paul O'Neill, Ken Caminiti, Lenny Dykstra, Cecil Fielder, Lance Johnson, Mike Greenwell, Mariano Duncan, Kal Daniels, Shane Mack, Chris Bosio, Mike Devereaux, Eric Plunk, Matt Nokes, Norm Charlton, Jim Leyritz, Bruce Ruffin, Bobby Thigpen, Daryl Boston, Jose Guzman, Pat Borders, Jeff Treadway, Scott Bankhead, Mark Carreon, Dale Sveum, John Cangelosi, Doug Henry, Felix Fermin, Dwight Smith, Damon Berryhill, Todd Benzinger and Sam Horn. The fact that ONE of them is still playing the best ball of his career does not make this in any way representative of the group.

[klousia]

Very nice information thanks very much.
Also very nice that Mogul comes so close to reality.

[Clay Dreslough]

Well I read the same James research when I wrote Mogul.

However, the recent Baseball Research Journal from SABR has an article on aging that seems to me to indicate that the peak age for those players with 20-year careers (all of whom are at least very good players) is more like 30 than 27. Players with shorter careers tend to peak at a younger age.

And Bonds isn't the only example of a post-30 power surge.

An interesting question is whether really talented players tend to age more slowly. Or whether it's just that players that happen to age more slowly end up having better careers.

Clay

[snapsjp]

I think it is the latter
You have two types of player
Superstars who will last maybe a couple of years on top (G. Vaughn)

And then those who have been steady for a long time and have shown little decline (Maddux)

[Paul Drye]

Originally posted by Clay Dreslough
And Bonds isn't the only example of a post-30 power surge.

He's one of the very few, though. From WWII to about 1990 there were a grand total of two players who hit more career homers after age 30 than before (Hank Aaron and Darrell Evans). And in Aaron's case, there was a serious park effect skew because he moved from a big park in Milwaukee to Fulton County Stadium.

It's become somewhat more common since then (Palmeiro and Bonds qualify now, and there may be a couple of others) but we're still talking about a handful of players as compared to something like a couple hundred genuine stars since 1945 who couldn't do it.

[boomboom]

Originally posted by boomboom
well the game realizes that he is 40(41) years old....if the steriod injected Bonds was normal like the rest of us humans his peak should have had two peaks. One at 27 (athletic Ablility) and one at around 32 (experience) peak.

And he had one at 36-39....

His peaks were:

age 28-1993- this is where is should level out....
age 31-1996- this should be the end of his peak...a slow decline..which is what happened. then all the sudden, he peaked again....

my guess is that in 1998- 1999, Bonds went on steriods when he was rehabing.....

then in 1999- in 143 games he hit 49 homeruns......

and for some reason, his wrist got faster....which it should have slowed down....for example if we look at the peak of what Barry did...in bold are the years of where his peak happened.
YEAR age OPS
1992- 27 - 1080
1993- 28 - 1135
1994- 29 - 1073
1995- 30 - 1008
1996- 31 - 1076 (should have been his last great year
1997- 32 - 1031
1998- 33 - 1047
1999- 34- 1006
2000- 35- 1128(2nd best season ever at age 35 up to this point)
2001- 36- 1378(shattered any record that year at 36)
2002- 37- 1381( still peaking????)
2003- 38- 1278 (at 38, 3rd best season up to this point.)
2004- 39- 1421 (best season at age 39)

this is why Barry Bonds isnt real...if he never used steriods, he would have finished the last years of his career at sub 1000 OPS...instead at age 36, he should have put numbers up like that of age 34...with age 35 being his last big year....
age 39, he would have been washed up....maybe even going for his 3,000 hit...(not being walked as much)

This is why Barry Bonds get traded for some crappy players...I think the code is correct of what Barry is worth...if he were normal.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bondsba01.shtml