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Thread: Player Aging under tools options?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    Player Aging under tools options?

    Please explain the reversion to the mean?
    Quote Originally Posted by Biggles View Post
    You beat me twice yesterday. I've never been beaten in the postseason in different leagues by the same person on the same day.

    Relish this day..

  2. #2
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    Re: Player Aging under tools options?

    What setting would cause earlier retirements? Like Andrew Luck did.
    Quote Originally Posted by Biggles View Post
    You beat me twice yesterday. I've never been beaten in the postseason in different leagues by the same person on the same day.

    Relish this day..

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
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    64

    Re: Player Aging under tools options?

    If there was one, I doubt you would want to use it.
    I certainly wouldn't.

  4. #4
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    Re: Player Aging under tools options?

    Quote Originally Posted by eddieballgame View Post
    If there was one, I doubt you would want to use it.
    I certainly wouldn't.
    If players age quickly, there would be a younger league. No sure I wanted Luck as an example but he did just retire early of old age at 29.
    Quote Originally Posted by Biggles View Post
    You beat me twice yesterday. I've never been beaten in the postseason in different leagues by the same person on the same day.

    Relish this day..

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    64

    Re: Player Aging under tools options?

    Luck had bad luck per his injuries, sad ending to what could have been a Hall of Fame career.
    Last edited by eddieballgame; 08-28-2019 at 05:18 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    85

    Re: Player Aging under tools options?

    Reversion to the mean is forcing a reduction in ability of a player so that after a great season he will not have a second great season.

    Statistically, most players will have a poor season following an unusually good season. So Clay included an algorithm to insure that players "returned" to their mean.

    This was actually harmful since many players have repeat great seasons and reversion to the mean is a natural consequence of a probability simulation. For example, if a player has a season that has 1 chance in 10 of occuring, the odds of 2 consecutive such seasons is a little less than 1 in 100. Clay put in an option to disable the forced "return to mean" so that you can have players with consecutive great (above their norm) seasons.

  7. #7
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    Re: Player Aging under tools options?

    Quote Originally Posted by als View Post
    Reversion to the mean is forcing a reduction in ability of a player so that after a great season he will not have a second great season.

    Statistically, most players will have a poor season following an unusually good season. So Clay included an algorithm to insure that players "returned" to their mean.

    This was actually harmful since many players have repeat great seasons and reversion to the mean is a natural consequence of a probability simulation. For example, if a player has a season that has 1 chance in 10 of occuring, the odds of 2 consecutive such seasons is a little less than 1 in 100. Clay put in an option to disable the forced "return to mean" so that you can have players with consecutive great (above their norm) seasons.
    Thanks.
    Quote Originally Posted by Biggles View Post
    You beat me twice yesterday. I've never been beaten in the postseason in different leagues by the same person on the same day.

    Relish this day..

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