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Thread: 90%

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    20

    90%

    Am I the only one having this problem?

    It's often seemed to me that when the game says that you have a 90% chance of scoring (or taking the next base), that the odds aren't really anywhere near that high. I was thinking it was really more like 50/50. I've kept track in the last few games, and the last eight times I tried to score with a 90% chance, I was thrown out 5 out of 8 times. I don't know if that's a problem with the game or if my team just has really lousy coaches.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    58

    Re: 90%

    It's a problem I've seen, also.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    167

    Re: 90%

    Well I've found with someone say an Omar Moreno back in the seventies who was a known base stealer back in the day, I've seen him not be able to steal home with a speed rating in the low 80s? How can that be? Was the catcher justthat much more accurate that day? Seemed kind of strange to me.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    1,188

    Re: 90%

    Quote Originally Posted by Joey_baseball View Post
    Well I've found with someone say an Omar Moreno back in the seventies who was a known base stealer back in the day, I've seen him not be able to steal home with a speed rating in the low 80s? How can that be? Was the catcher justthat much more accurate that day? Seemed kind of strange to me.
    The game is probably designed to reflect real life.

    Omar Moreno was a base stealer in his day, but he was never able to steal home. He tried just twice and was thrown out both times. Stealing home is a difficult thing to do. Many of the greatest base stealers of all time did not have much success stealing home.

    Lets take 10 of the best base stealers from the 1950's through the 1980's. Moreno, Lou Brock, Bert Campaneris, Maury Wills, Rickey Henderson, Ron Leflore, Tim Raines, Vince Coleman, Luis Aparicio, and Davey Lopes. Combined, they led their league in stolen bases more than 50 times. However, as a group they attempted 60 steals of home, and were successful just 17 times. So speed isn't the only factor when stealing home.

    A couple of players from the past that I recall had an ability to steal home were Jackie Robinson and Rod Carew. Checking the stats at B-Ref, Robinson stole home 19 times while being caught 12 times. Carew was 17 for 31. Neither was among the greatest base stealers in history. Carew never led his league or managed 50 steals in a season. Jackie did lead his league with somewhat low totals, with 37 being his career high.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    58

    Re: 90%

    Stealing bases in pitch by pitch is another issue entirely. Often see 90+ runners thrown out by 70s armed catchers on the opposing team while 70s runners often beat out catchers on the team I'm using in the 90s. Actually, in all categories the pbp seems to not be as realistic as it once was, batters with good eye ratings frequently going after very bad third strikes, pitchers with 90 control having a hard time getting the ball over the plate. It doesn't seem like the ratings mean much to the game anymore.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Republic of Georgia
    Posts
    12,804

    Re: 90%

    Probably just your sample size, only 8 opportunities.

    I was measuring in a game I was playing and got the following
    90% 67 opportunities, 5 outs, 93% success
    80% 19 opportunities, 1 out, 95% success
    70% 9 opportunities, 1 out, 90% success
    60% 4 opportunities, 3 outs, 25% success
    50% 9 opportunities, 7 outs, 22% success
    If we add your 3 for 8 to my 67 sample, we get 65/75 which is 89.3%. Almost exactly 90%

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    58

    Re: 90%

    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Probably just your sample size, only 8 opportunities.

    I was measuring in a game I was playing and got the following


    If we add your 3 for 8 to my 67 sample, we get 65/75 which is 89.3%. Almost exactly 90%
    Was that in the pitch by pitch mode? What level were you playing on? Mogul, manager coach or fan?

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