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Thread: Predictions for 2019 NFL Completion Percentage?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
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    Setec Astronomy
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    Predictions for 2019 NFL Completion Percentage?

    Question: What will the league-wide completion percentage be in the 2019-2020 season (and beyond)?

    Background info: The league-wide completion percentage for the last 13 seasons:

    2006: 62.0
    2007: 62.2
    2008: 62.3
    2009: 62.4
    2010: 62.5
    2011: 62.6
    2012: 62.7
    2013: 62.8
    2014: 63.1
    2015: 63.0
    2016: 63.0
    2017: 62.1
    2018: 64.9

    It stayed between 62.0% and 63.0% for 12 consecutive seasons and then catapulted up to 64.9% last year. Is this a statistical blip? A change in officiating? New offensive strategies? Something else?

    My instinct is that it will fall back somewhat -- to around 63-64%, because that's what stats tend to do. But I may be missing a much larger trend. Could it go even higher in 2019?

    Clay
    Clay Dreslough, Sports Mogul Inc.
    cjd at sportsmogul dot com / blog / twitter

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  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    41

    Re: Predictions for 2019 NFL Completion Percentage?

    I project 65.2 this year. I see improvements from sub 60 QB's Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson. Plus improvements by Flacco, Dalton, Rodgers and Garopolo versus Mullens. Offsetting regression by Brees, Cousins, Ben, Brady, Rivers, Manning/Jones.

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