Runner on second frustrations

[Lex Logan]

Mogul '11, but I haven't seen anything to suggest any differences in '12: the situation is runner on second, first and third empty, 0 or 1 outs:

(1) Any right-handed batter is apt to strike out 25% of the time, regardless of his eye rating, the power rating or handedness of the pitcher, or what play is selected (bunt, hit to right side or swing away.) This is far higher than normal for almost all batters and pitchers, and seems to be hard-coded to ignore ratings.

(2) If "swing away" is selected, the runner will advance to third less than 25% of the time on grounders to first or second. The runner will usually advance if "hit to right side" is selected. The "hit to right side" should only affect the frequency of plays to the right, not what the baserunner does.

(3) I've never seen a baserunner tagged out (in Mogul) on a ball hit to second or first, so the runner ought to be advancing 100% of the time. Obviously there should be some risk but how often in real life does a first baseman fire it over to third and nail the runner?

(4) Has base coaching been added for these situations? Pretty frustrating to get a runner tagged out when you're down five runs, or stand like a statue in the ninth inning of a tie game.

(5) If you select "hit to right side" for a left-handed batter, it seems to increase the frequency of balls hit the other way (left side.) The runner is more likely to advance when a ball actually is hit to the right, but overall there is no net increase in the likelihood of advancing the runner from selecting the "hit to right side" option. The batter is also more likely to strike out. (All my comments are based on testing batters with an 80+ rating for this skill.)

(6) On fly balls to deep right, I've only once seen a chance of success as high as 80%. Since the break-even point is closer to 90%, my runners never advance to third on a fly. It doesn't matter how fast the runner is or how weak an arm the RF has, the odds are never good. I see the AI advance frequently and rarely see them thrown out. Not fair.

(7) There does not seem to be any effect of two outs on the likelihood of scoring in this or any other situation.

[Dyzalot]

(6) On fly balls to deep right, I've only once seen a chance of success as high as 80%. Since the break-even point is closer to 90%, my runners never advance to third on a fly. It doesn't matter how fast the runner is or how weak an arm the RF has, the odds are never good. I see the AI advance frequently and rarely see them thrown out. Not fair.

That may be the break even point with two outs but with only one out it is closer to 70%.

[mny12]

I too would like some control on if a guy attempts to score from second. Would add more excitement to play by play! And yes I feel the "odds" are stacked against me, even on 70%...

One other note about picking defenses, do you notice if there's a grounder with the infield in, you almost always throw the guy out at home? Not only is this rare, but usually never comes close because the fielder holds the runner and gets the out at first instead. I'll take it on defense but still a little unrealistic

[Lex Logan]

Dyzalot, you are correct, according to The Book (Table 10, Win Expectancy.) Bottom of the 4th, tie game, one out after the catch, home team winning % is .583 if the runner holds, .619 if he makes it to third, and .514 if he is thrown out. Using the formula safe*x + out*(1-x) = hold, re-arranging we find x = (hold - out)/(safe - out), so the break-even point "x" is .66 (if my math is correct.) Bottom of the 9th it drops to .57; if there are two outs after the catch x is .87 in the bottom of the 4th. So I should be taking a chance at 70% with only one out, but that still does not explain why I never see 90% and almost never 80% (only once in more than a thousand games.) Isn't the throw to third from deep right about the same distance as to home? And sometimes the fielder catches the ball with his back to the infield. There should be some 90% to 100% situations here. And my strong-armed RF's aren't throwing out 30% of the runners tagging up, either. They aren't throwing out 5%.

[Lex Logan]

One other note about picking defenses, do you notice if there's a grounder with the infield in, you almost always throw the guy out at home? Not only is this rare, but usually never comes close because the fielder holds the runner and gets the out at first instead. I'll take it on defense but still a little unrealistic

I've said before, we should have control of all baserunning situations where the third base coach would be involved. I hate calling "safety squeeze" with my pitcher, runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs and top of my order up, only to have the guy on 3rd tagged out at home. We really should have a sacrifice rather than squeeze option, but the point is the AI simply isn't up to making reasonable choices about when to take risks.

[Dyzalot]

Dyzalot, you are correct, according to The Book (Table 10, Win Expectancy.) Bottom of the 4th, tie game, one out after the catch, home team winning % is .583 if the runner holds, .619 if he makes it to third, and .514 if he is thrown out. Using the formula safe*x + out*(1-x) = hold, re-arranging we find x = (hold - out)/(safe - out), so the break-even point "x" is .66 (if my math is correct.) Bottom of the 9th it drops to .57; if there are two outs after the catch x is .87 in the bottom of the 4th. So I should be taking a chance at 70% with only one out, but that still does not explain why I never see 90% and almost never 80% (only once in more than a thousand games.) Isn't the throw to third from deep right about the same distance as to home? And sometimes the fielder catches the ball with his back to the infield. There should be some 90% to 100% situations here. And my strong-armed RF's aren't throwing out 30% of the runners tagging up, either. They aren't throwing out 5%.

Part of the justification for this could be that often runners on 2nd don't immediately tag up on deep flyballs and thus don't always get a good jump like they do on third. I do agree however that there should at least be some flyballs that are automatic tagups for anyone and the better runners with good decision making should get a boost in their success rate too at least as I understand the meaning of that rating.

[Lex Logan]

Part of the justification for this could be that often runners on 2nd don't immediately tag up on deep flyballs and thus don't always get a good jump like they do on third. I do agree however that there should at least be some flyballs that are automatic tagups for anyone and the better runners with good decision making should get a boost in their success rate too at least as I understand the meaning of that rating.

I don't understand -- deosn't everyone tag up and leave as soon as the ball is caught? If the runner stops halfway, unsure whether it will be caught, surely it's rare to retreat to the base, tag, and then try to advance. That's the problem with the "odds" for tagging at first -- normally, the runner does wait halfway, but then no one ever tries to advance if the ball is caught. To advance, the runner plans on tagging and waits or retreats to the base before the catch.

[Dyzalot]

I don't understand -- deosn't everyone tag up and leave as soon as the ball is caught? If the runner stops halfway, unsure whether it will be caught, surely it's rare to retreat to the base, tag, and then try to advance. That's the problem with the "odds" for tagging at first -- normally, the runner does wait halfway, but then no one ever tries to advance if the ball is caught. To advance, the runner plans on tagging and waits or retreats to the base before the catch.

If you ever watch a game there are often times on deep balls or drives in the gap where a runner on 2nd might play it 1/3 to 1/2 of the way. Either way though they have to make a decision at some point as to whether the ball will be caught and if they can safely tag to third. A runner on third only has to decide if he can make it as they are almost always staying at the bag on any flyball that they would possibly tag on. And yes, I have seen many times where a player on second is returning to second to tag after the ball has been caught and still goes to third.