What is the best 1-2 ace combo in baseball?

[kenny1234]

Who are the guys you think don't belong on this poll? If that's what you're inferring. I tend to lean toward Burnett - Sabathia and Kershaw - Billingsley. I think Kershaw and Billingsley will be down the road, maybe even as soon as this year, but not just yet. And I really don't think Burnett is an ace pitcher at all, I don't even think he's a solid #2. I think he's a decent #2, but I think he's more of a really good #3, if that makes any sense. Sabathia, sure, if he holds up (which I think is a big question mark moving forward given the workload he's had in his career and the fact that he's never been in great shape), but not Burnett.

I wasn't really trying to get at that, but I'd say Kershaw/Billingsley don't belong at the top and neither does CC/Burnett. I guess an easy way to look through the list is to just look at all the pitchers who are strong Cy Young Candidates. I don't think I would call Burnett/Kershaw/Billingsley strong Cy Young Candidates.

Every projection that I've seen has the top two in the Yankees rotation as Sabathia and Vazquez - not Burnett. According to the CHONE projections, Lincecum and Cain are expected to combine for 97 runs better than replacement, while Sabathia and Vazquez combine for 103 runs better than replacement. In order, the contenders are:

Sabathia and Vazquez - 103 runs
Lincecum and Cain - 97 runs
Halladay and Hamels - 97 runs
Hernandez and Lee - 94 runs
Greinke and Meche - 89 runs
Beckett and Lackey - 84 runs
Verlander and Scherzer - 75 runs
Haren and Jackson - 75 runs (Haren/Webb is 74 runs)
Kershaw and Billingsley - 69 runs
Carpenter and Wainwright - 65 runs

[dickay]

vazquez is soooo underrated. He's not quite as good as he was last year....but he's a consistent horse who I would absolutely love to have had on the Sox. He was the Yankees biggest acquisition this year...not Granderson.

[kenny1234]

I think that CHONE is overrating Vazquez, but that people here are either forgetting him, or underrating him.

[HoustonGM]

Vazquez's problem has always been that his ERA has never matched up to his peripherals, probably due to his career split of .245/.291/.406 with no runners on and .273/.331/.441 with runners on. The peripherals finally did match his ERA in 2009 (and his men-on vs. bases empty stats were similar - 20 point OPS difference rather than the 70 point difference he shows for his career).

The questions surrounding him are twofold - 1) Has he finally figured out whatever it was that kept his ERA from matching his peripherals, or was he just lucky in 2009? and 2) How will moving from a slight pitcher's park in the National League to a hitter's park in the American League East affect him? He does have a career ERA half a run better in the NL than the AL.

[dickay]

career split of .245/.291/.406 with no runners on and .273/.331/.441 with runners on.

would that have something to do with a lack of clutchness

[HoustonGM]

would that have something to do with a lack of clutchness

Probably not. It probably has to do with his stuff not being as good out of the stretch. If better stuff out of the wind-up than the stretch is what we call "not clutch", then, sure.

[kenny1234]

Vazquez has the large split you indicate, which might be a reason that his career ERA is about 0.35 runs higher than his FIP. Felix Hernandez is another one with a huge split (OPS of 0.649 vs 0.736) favoring bases empty situations, but his ERA is actually slightly lower than his FIP.

My guess is that most of the difference between Vazquez and his peripherals has been a lack of luck.

[HoustonGM]

My guess is that most of the difference between Vazquez and his peripherals has been a lack of luck.

If he didn't do it on a consistent basis, I'd agree. Similar to Tom Glavine and Mark Buerhle, two guys who consistently best their FIP, I think there's something more than luck with Vazquez.

[haveacigar]

Might also be poor pitch selection out of the stretch.

[200tang]

Probably not. It probably has to do with his stuff not being as good out of the stretch. If better stuff out of the wind-up than the stretch is what we call "not clutch", then, sure.

beat me to it.

[mattynokes]

Vazquez won't even sniff last year's numbers. You don't need projections to see that he's an NL pitcher gets rocked in the AL. The Yanks can have fun with a 4.50 ERA, 9.0+ H/9, and 1.25 HR/9 pitcher.

[dickay]

Vazquez won't even sniff last year's numbers. You don't need projections to see that he's an NL pitcher gets rocked in the AL. The Yanks can have fun with a 4.50 ERA, 9.0+ H/9, and 1.25 HR/9 pitcher.

and his 200+ innings with 8-9 K/9 - 2BB/9. Not bad at all for a #4. I'm a Yankee hater who can see the brilliance in the signing.

[HoustonGM]

Projections put him around a 3.70 ERA.

[Jeffy25]

and his 200+ innings with 8-9 K/9 - 2BB/9. Not bad at all for a #4. I'm a Yankee hater who can see the brilliance in the trade.

[ragecage]

Ben Sheets and Justin Duchshereerereererererererer