What is the best 1-2 ace combo in baseball?

[Red Sox Fan 734]

I voted for Beckett Lester, but realistically its Hernandez and Lee

[gRYFYN1]

I went with Hernandez/Lee. But i think it a true toss up between them and Cain/Lincecum.

[HoustonGM]

I think people are overrating Cain based on his 2009 ERA. Lincecum/Cain is certainly in the discussion, if only because Lincecum is so awesome, but Cain last year was fundamentally little different than the Cain of 2006-2008 - which is a very good pitcher but not a Cy Young contender. Cain's been remarkably consistent ever since entering the majors.

His tERA/FIP:

2005: 4.15/4.08
2006: 3.69/3.96
2007: 3.45/3.78
2008: 4.41/3.91
2009: 4.03/3.89

The difference between 2009 and 2007/2008? A BABIP of .268 (.284 and .304 in 2007/08) and a LOB% of 81.6% (72.9/75.3 07/08). Cain certainly has the talent to take a step up and enter the realm of "aces", but look past the likely unsustainable BABIP drop and LOB% spike, and he hasn't done that yet. Fundamentally, he's a 115-120ish ERA+ guy.

[dickay]

I think people are overrating Cain based on his 2009 ERA. Lincecum/Cain is certainly in the discussion, if only because Lincecum is so awesome, but Cain last year was fundamentally little different than the Cain of 2006-2008 - which is a very good pitcher but not a Cy Young contender. Cain's been remarkably consistent ever since entering the majors.

His tERA/FIP:

2005: 4.15/4.08
2006: 3.69/3.96
2007: 3.45/3.78
2008: 4.41/3.91
2009: 4.03/3.89

The difference between 2009 and 2007/2008? A BABIP of .268 (.284 and .304 in 2007/08) and a LOB% of 81.6% (72.9/75.3 07/08). Cain certainly has the talent to take a step up and enter the realm of "aces", but look past the likely unsustainable BABIP drop and LOB% spike, and he hasn't done that yet. Fundamentally, he's a 115-120ish ERA+ guy.

same could be said about king felix. he did have a monster 09, better than cain who also have a terrific year himself....but prior to that he was 115-120 era+ guy at best. both are very young.

[etothep]

someone get the popcorn ready

[HoustonGM]

same could be said about king felix. he did have a monster 09, better than cain who also have a terrific year himself....but prior to that he was 115-120 era+ guy at best. both are very young.

Felix was the much better prospect with a much better scouting profile. Furthermore, unlike Cain, his 2009 was a breakout season in more than just earned run average.

[TheNamelessPoet]

someone get the popcorn ready

+1 rofl

[Jeffy25]

haha, where is that lil smilie that is sitting there eating the popcorn?

I have it on my other computer.

[dickay]

Felix was the much better prospect with a much better scouting profile. Furthermore, unlike Cain, his 2009 was a breakout season in more than just earned run average.

the question didn't ask who was the better prospect (and Cain was a pretty damn good one too) it asked the best combo taking into account the past few seasons. Felix's 09 was better, but that was never disputed. You said what Cain was prior to 09, and I merely said the same could be said of Felix. Arguably, prior to 09...Cain was better.

If I had a choice no doubt Felix is better. I don't know why you are looking to argue that point. I'm just stating that prior to last year, Cain was very similar if not better than Felix as a whole.

So over the last few years...Lincecum > Lee....and Cain > or at least = King Felix. Felix 09 was special, superb. Cains was pretty damn good too. Even if one says Felix has been better than Cain over the past 3-4 years the difference doesn't offset Lincecum's advantage over Lee.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

I voted Lee-Hernandez, but them and Lincecum-Cain is basically 1 and 1a.

[HoustonGM]

the question didn't ask who was the better prospect (and Cain was a pretty damn good one too) it asked the best combo taking into account the past few seasons.

I'm aware. The fact that Felix was a better prospect lends more credence to his breakout season being "real", as well as for him being better going forward.

Felix's 09 was better, but that was never disputed. You said what Cain was prior to 09, and I merely said the same could be said of Felix. Arguably, prior to 09...Cain was better.

I know. My post was pointing out how , fundamentally, Cain's 2009 wasn't much different from each of his previous seasons, so, going forward, we should expect an ERA somewhere in the mid-3's. Felix, with similar pre-2009 seasons to Cain, isn't in the same boat as Cain because Felix's 2009 WAS fundamentally better than his previous seasons.

If I had a choice no doubt Felix is better. I don't know why you are looking to argue that point. I'm just stating that prior to last year, Cain was very similar if not better than Felix as a whole.

Okay. Let's spell this out.

1) I said people are overrating Cain because of his 2009 ERA, pointing out that, fundamentally, he wasn't a very different pitcher than he was previously. Therefore, going forward, he's likely to be the guy we saw previously - a very good pitcher, ERA+ around 115-120.

2) You said the same can be said of Felix.

3) I said no, because of Felix's superior pedigree and his breakout season being more "real" (ie. not just ERA).

If your post was solely intended to point out that pre-2009 Felix was similar or worse than pre-2009 Cain, um, okay, I have no idea why pointing that out would be necessary. However, since you highlighted my sentence about overrating Cain, I assumed the "same can be said" part meant that people are overrating Felix because of 2009 and that we should expect Felix to be more like he was pre-2009.

[HoustonGM]

So over the last few years...Lincecum > Lee....and Cain > or at least = King Felix. Felix 09 was special, superb. Cains was pretty damn good too. Even if one says Felix has been better than Cain over the past 3-4 years the difference doesn't offset Lincecum's advantage over Lee.

I'll play your game - the question didn't ask which combo has been the best over the past 3-4 years.

You're right, over the past 3-4 years, Lincecum/Cain have been better than Felix/Lee. Going forward, though, I see two Cy Young-caliber pitchers in Seattle, and a Cy Young-caliber pitcher and a very good pitcher in San Francisco.

[filihok]

I'll play your game - the question didn't ask which combo has been the best over the past 3-4 years.

Do your best

We are predicting which two will be the best in 2010.

While combining the past few years as well. What are the best 1-2

It was a Jeffy question, so I don't think anyone can be entirely sure what it meant

[filihok]

Okay. Let's spell this out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDy_BYouPxo

[dickay]

It was a Jeffy question, so I don't think anyone can be entirely sure what it meant

lmao...i was just thinking the same after looking at it again and seeing it asked two entirely different questions that somehow mesh.

1) who will be the best in 2010

2) while combining the last few years, who are the best 1-2?

'assuming' Felix pitches closer to his 09 form than prior, which should be expected...the answer to #1 is likely Seattle though its very close. The answer to #2 is also debatable but i'd gather than if looking only at #2 the majority would lean SF.