Amazing HOF future.

[dps]

yea just look at the end of the 96 season ..

Maddux was 30 and had 165 wins
Glavine was 30 with just 139 wins
Clemens was a 33 year old with 192 wins who was solid but injury prone ans just 40-39 in that last 4 yers
Johnson was already 32 and had just 104 wins


Most people here would ave assumed those guys were long shots at best at making 300, yet they all did, and obviously two topped 350.

Bill James did his first attempt at modifying Favorite Toy for pitchers about that time (maybe a year or so later, don't know if he's modified the formula since, but suspect that he has) and the best candidates were Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Smolz, all of whom showed a chance in the 20-25% range. James' take was that that probably meant that most likely, 1 of the 4 would likley make it and the others likely wouldn't.

Of course, it turned out that 3 of the 4 got to 300. I don't know if that's a sign of a flaw in that version of the formula, or just a matter of overcoming the odds. But it illustrates my earlier point which HGM alluded to--the odds were against all 4 of them as individuals, but in favor of at least 1 of them making it.

[Ninetyfourgoali]

I'll bet you $50 that there's at least 2 pitchers active in the majors this year who eventually get to 300 wins, not counting Johnson (who I'm think might be done). (And we'll probably have to wait about 20 years to find out for sure, but that's OK--I don't mind waiting to collect.)

Mussina still has a chance, at least, though I don't think he'll make it. Some of the other guys who currently have 200+ wins I suppose might make it if they last as long as Ryan did, but the best bets are younger pitchers who are not anywhere near that yet. Johan Santana is 28, and is already up to 89 wins, and C.C. Sabathia is 2 years younger and has 6 more wins. Do you really want to argue that it's not possible for either of those guys to make it to 300 wins? And if neither of them do it, maybe Roy Halladay or Dontrell Willis will, or maybe Ben Sheets. Or maybe some kid who's in his first season, and will end the year 2-3 with an ERA of 6.49 (Santana's marks his first season). While the odds will be strongly against any individual pitcher we might look at making it, there are enough pitchers who have a bit of a chance that the cumulative odds are that someone will do it.

lol

[MichelleWie]

uote:
I'll bet you $50 that there's at least 2 pitchers active in the majors this year who eventually get to 300 wins, not counting Johnson (who I'm think might be done). (And we'll probably have to wait about 20 years to find out for sure, but that's OK--I don't mind waiting to collect.)

Mussina still has a chance, at least, though I don't think he'll make it. Some of the other guys who currently have 200+ wins I suppose might make it if they last as long as Ryan did, but the best bets are younger pitchers who are not anywhere near that yet. Johan Santana is 28, and is already up to 89 wins, and C.C. Sabathia is 2 years younger and has 6 more wins. Do you really want to argue that it's not possible for either of those guys to make it to 300 wins? And if neither of them do it, maybe Roy Halladay or Dontrell Willis will, or maybe Ben Sheets. Or maybe some kid who's in his first season, and will end the year 2-3 with an ERA of 6.49 (Santana's marks his first season). While the odds will be strongly against any individual pitcher we might look at making it, there are enough pitchers who have a bit of a chance that the cumulative odds are that someone will do it.

I hope CC and Ben both get their. Even though it's unlikely. ( Especialy for Sheets) To go off on a tangent here, I Have never agreed with the fact that CC is universally loved and Sheets is universally hated in Brewer land. I can make a very good case for Sheets being the best pitcher in Brewers history. I love them both unconditionally . No hate for Ben here..

[SirKodiak]

I hope CC and Ben both get their. Even though it's unlikely. ( Especialy for Sheets) To go off on a tangent here, I Have never agreed with the fact that CC is universally loved and Sheets is universally hated in Brewer land. I can make a very good case for Sheets being the best pitcher in Brewers history. I love them both unconditionally . No hate for Ben here..

after Teddy Higuera, of course.

[HoustonGM]

I hope CC and Ben both get their. Even though it's unlikely. ( Especialy for Sheets) To go off on a tangent here, I Have never agreed with the fact that CC is universally loved and Sheets is universally hated in Brewer land. I can make a very good case for Sheets being the best pitcher in Brewers history. I love them both unconditionally . No hate for Ben here..

His only competition for that title is Teddy Higuera. I'd say it's a toss up and call it a tie. WAR has Higuera about 5 wins ahead - 28.3 to 23.8.

[MichelleWie]

after Teddy Higuera, of course.

I agree. I was just pointing out that a good case can be made for Sheets as well. Interesting that Higuera is one of most hated Brewers in history. Like Sheets he had the misfortune of getting hurt after signing a huge contract. The fans seemed to somehow think that the big contract was to blame. They totally ignore the innings he racked up early in his career. He also worked very hard to try an return to the majors. Unfortunately instead of his legacy being Greatest pitcher in franchise history it became biggest mistake in franchise history. Hopefully one day Teddy will get the recognition he deserves.