PECOTA: A's will win the AL West

[Jeffy25]

...in 2013. Until then I'll watch AA and his staff go to work on fixing all the damage that's been done in the last 15 years of ineptitude, or I'll take them over in OOTP or Mogul and take my frustration out on the rest of the pixel league.

there ya go

[actionjackson]

We need to save this thread, so we can look back on how failtastic these predictions were.

The Mets are packed with All-Stars. Jarrod Washburn will put them over the hump and should give them the Wild Card. Think about it. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Santana, K-Rod, Castillo, even Francoeur... gasp!). A great defensive first baseman. Bounceback seasons from Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez. A strong bullpen. How could we not do good?

Well Mr. Grammar King, your team might do well, but under no circumstances will they do good.

[metsguy234]

Well Mr. Grammar King, your team might do well, but under no circumstances will they do good.

[Jeffy25]

Well Mr. Grammar King, your team might do well, but under no circumstances will they do good.

You get the Bingle star of the day.

[HoustonGM]

Also, how many pitchers now were the pitcher that will put the mets over the hump? Sheets, Pineiro, Garland...Rich Hill.... yeah, get back to me when the Mets actually sign a pitcher.

[metsguy234]

Also, how many pitchers now were the pitcher that will put the mets over the hump? Sheets, Pineiro, Garland...Rich Hill.... yeah, get back to me when the Mets actually sign a pitcher.

If Parnell was in the rotation it could work probably too.

[Jeffy25]

Also, how many pitchers now were the pitcher that will put the mets over the hump? Sheets, Pineiro, Garland...Rich Hill.... yeah, get back to me when the Mets actually sign a pitcher.

Personally, I am not impressed by J. Washburn.

The Mets could sign every player left on the open market, they still won't win more than 85 games.

[HoustonGM]

Personally, I am not impressed by J. Washburn.

That's because he's not impressive. He's a average to slightly below average pitcher that had a great half season courtesy of luck and Franklin Gutierrez.

[metsguy234]

Personally, I am not impressed by J. Washburn.

The Mets could sign every player left on the open market, they still won't win more than 85 games.

Lies

[HoustonGM]

And, also, remember, this is the first update. The projections on opening day will differ from these.

[200tang]

Even though the AL West is going to be tight and any projection is realistically possible, these are extremely confusing. By almost every projection I've seen, besides this one, the Angels are the favorites by about a win or two.

Wish I could find the article explaining why PECOTA is flawed, but I can't. I do know of all the projection systems last year it did the worst by far.

[metsguy234]

I had assumed the Mariners were locks.

[OregonDuck1989]

The AL West is probably the deepest division in baseball.

[HoustonGM]

Even though the AL West is going to be tight and any projection is realistically possible, these are extremely confusing. By almost every projection I've seen, besides this one, the Angels are the favorites by about a win or two.

Wish I could find the article explaining why PECOTA is flawed, but I can't. I do know of all the projection systems last year it did the worst by far.

I don't remember it being that way last time I saw a comparison of projection systems (don't know if that was this year or last year).

I had assumed the Mariners were locks.

Well, there's your problem. You're wrong.

[HoustonGM]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564 - from 2007