View Poll Results: Has Johan Santana peaked and is now on the downside of his career?

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  • Yes

    23 62.16%
  • No

    2 5.41%
  • remains to be seen, he could regain his form

    9 24.32%
  • what are you talking about? he is still as sharp as ever!

    3 8.11%
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Thread: Has Johan Santana peaked?

  1. #1
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    Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Meaning his best years are definitely behind him and we are unlikely to see him return to the dominance of his CY years?

    Year ERA+ WHIP SO/9 H/9 Age
    2009 131 1.212 7.9 8.4 30
    2008 166 1.148 7.9 7.9 29
    2007 129 1.073 9.7 7.5 28
    2006 161 0.997 9.4 7.2 27
    2005 155 0.971 9.2 7.0 26
    2004 182 0.921 10.5 6.2 25

    *Underlined years are CY winning seasons
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  2. #2
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    I would say he's still in his "peak" or prime of his career. No reason to think he couldn't have another stud Cy quality season. So I don't know how to answer this. I say yes, he's at the peak....but no, he hasn't started the decent

  3. #3
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    I don't think it's possible to say yet, but his SO/9 the past 2 years was 7.9 each year, while it was previously 9-11 every previous year. He dealt with arm issues last year so there could be other reasons why that happened, but I wouldn't expect him to put up the same dominance he did in Minnesota, although I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL year after year.

  4. #4
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by dickay View Post
    I would say he's still in his "peak" or prime of his career. No reason to think he couldn't have another stud Cy quality season. So I don't know how to answer this. I say yes, he's at the peak....but no, he hasn't started the decent
    option 4 maybe?
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  5. #5
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wassit3 View Post
    option 4 maybe?
    got ya

  6. #6
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.
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  7. #7
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG View Post
    I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.
    It would be great if we could poll MLB hitters and see what they thought wouldn't it? I am betting most would agree with what you said
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  8. #8
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

  9. #9
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonGM View Post
    I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.
    if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?
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  10. #10
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wassit3 View Post
    if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?
    I'd say his average ERA+ would fall between 120 and 140.

  11. #11
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by YEAH DAAAAWG View Post
    I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.
    agreed

    do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?
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  12. #12
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNamelessPoet View Post
    agreed

    do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?
    FIP, xFIP, tRA, DICE

  13. #13
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNamelessPoet View Post
    do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?
    Like FIP? It is on Fangraphs and Santana's 2007-2009 is over a half-run worse than 2004-2006 - so that would indicate that he might have peaked. The SO/9 that HGM mentioned is another clue.

  14. #14
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by kenny1234 View Post
    Like FIP? It is on Fangraphs and Santana's 2007-2009 is over a half-run worse than 2004-2006 - so that would indicate that he might have peaked. The SO/9 that HGM mentioned is another clue.
    *tang.

  15. #15
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    Re: Has Johan Santana peaked?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wassit3 View Post
    if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonGM View Post
    I'd say his average ERA+ would fall between 120 and 140.
    Agreed with HGM. There are very few players that I would comfortably forecast with an ERA+ above 140. Most likely Lincecum and Greinke, probably Halladay and Felix Hernandez. Beyond that, it is difficult to see people that I think have at least a 50/50 chance of ERA+ that high.

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