Has Johan Santana peaked?

[Wassit3]

Meaning his best years are definitely behind him and we are unlikely to see him return to the dominance of his CY years?

Year ERA+ WHIP SO/9 H/9 Age
2009 131 1.212 7.9 8.4 30
2008 166 1.148 7.9 7.9 29
2007 129 1.073 9.7 7.5 28
2006 161 0.997 9.4 7.2 27
2005 155 0.971 9.2 7.0 26
2004 182 0.921 10.5 6.2 25

*Underlined years are CY winning seasons

[dickay]

I would say he's still in his "peak" or prime of his career. No reason to think he couldn't have another stud Cy quality season. So I don't know how to answer this. I say yes, he's at the peak....but no, he hasn't started the decent

[200tang]

I don't think it's possible to say yet, but his SO/9 the past 2 years was 7.9 each year, while it was previously 9-11 every previous year. He dealt with arm issues last year so there could be other reasons why that happened, but I wouldn't expect him to put up the same dominance he did in Minnesota, although I do expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the NL year after year.

[Wassit3]

I would say he's still in his "peak" or prime of his career. No reason to think he couldn't have another stud Cy quality season. So I don't know how to answer this. I say yes, he's at the peak....but no, he hasn't started the decent

option 4 maybe?

[dickay]

option 4 maybe?

got ya

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.

[Wassit3]

I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.

It would be great if we could poll MLB hitters and see what they thought wouldn't it? I am betting most would agree with what you said

[HoustonGM]

I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

[Wassit3]

I'd say he has had his best season, but that he's still a #1 starter.

if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?

[HoustonGM]

if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?

I'd say his average ERA+ would fall between 120 and 140.

[TheNamelessPoet]

I think he's probably declined very, very slightly, but I think he's still one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the league.

agreed

do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?

[200tang]

agreed

do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?

FIP, xFIP, tRA, DICE

[kenny1234]

do we have any stats that dont depend on defense?

Like FIP? It is on Fangraphs and Santana's 2007-2009 is over a half-run worse than 2004-2006 - so that would indicate that he might have peaked. The SO/9 that HGM mentioned is another clue.

[HoustonGM]

Like FIP? It is on Fangraphs and Santana's 2007-2009 is over a half-run worse than 2004-2006 - so that would indicate that he might have peaked. The SO/9 that HGM mentioned is another clue.

*tang.

[kenny1234]

if you had to guess what range would you say his average ERA+ would fall for say the next 3 seasons A.100-120 b. 120 to 140 C. 140 +?

I'd say his average ERA+ would fall between 120 and 140.

Agreed with HGM. There are very few players that I would comfortably forecast with an ERA+ above 140. Most likely Lincecum and Greinke, probably Halladay and Felix Hernandez. Beyond that, it is difficult to see people that I think have at least a 50/50 chance of ERA+ that high.