Better Rotation: Yanks vs Red Sox

[filihok]

Arguing with my Yankee fan friend...He obviously thinks the Yankees have the better offense-they do. The better defense-they don't. And the better starting pitching-I don't know.

The big three for each (Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez and Beckett, Lackey, and Lester) I rate pretty much equal.

The end of the rotations are a little tougher to call
Pettite is Pettite, I think we know what we get from him but who knows what happens with Joba/Hughes?

The Sox have questions too with Dice-K, Bucholz and Wake.

[free2131]

I voted Yanks, but it is pretty close, IMO.

[200tang]

Are we counting health as a factor?

[filihok]

Are we counting health as a factor?

Yes

[200tang]

hmm

Sabathia vs Beckett - Beckett is the better pitcher in my opinion, but Sabathia is gonna give you another 20-50 innings. Sabathia has a big body, so it will be interesting how it holds up under his workloads as he continues to get older, but there aren't any major red flags yet.
Vazquez vs Lester - This one is a bit tougher, but year to year in the past 3 years Vazquez has been better. Vazquez will be facing tougher competition now, but with the data we have I can't say Lester yet.
Burnett vs Lackey - Burnett is the hands down better pitcher, but considering he's also much healthier this one is pretty easy to decide.
Pettitte vs Matszuka - Matsuzaka has been an overrated pitcher sine coming over from Japan. He's run a career 4.53 career xFIP. Now, that's a quality pitcher, but it doesn't really make me think he's better than Pettitte. Even with Pettitte being much older, Matsuzaka isn't exactly a picture of health. Pretty easy selection again.
Joba/Hughes vs Buchholz/Wakefield - This one is tougher. I'd probably just put this as a tossup next year, but if we're talking about future then I think you have to pick the Yankee duo because I'd take a gamble on both of them in the next 5 years than just Buchholz. I wouldn't fault anyone for picking the Boston duo, though.

Top to bottom I'd have to say the Yankees, especially when you factor health.

[grasshopper]

This is a good one. I say the seesaw leans towards Boston. Dice K is an amazing pitcher who has become belittled in Boston. What is he, 28, 29 now? Just punch up his pitching stats for the last few seasons in Beantown. Pretty good . He is still an afterthought 4th pitcher. Sox stockpile guys and then make them uesless. This is a new/last decade thing in Boston.

This is why thy Yankees win and Sox dont. So hands down the Yankees staff is better.

[dickay]

as a sox fan, i think i was honest and voted NYY. I think their top three is better than the Sox. What nutcase voted Beckett better than Sabathia? I think the Sox gain a little ground at the end of the rotation, but not much. Its close yes...but I give the Yanks the nod.

[rschusta24]

The only reason I voted for the Red Sox is because of their depth. As we have seen in the past with many many teams. The pitching rotation never stays the same due to injuries and such and the Red Sox will definately benefit from their depth with injuries being kept in mind in this poll.

[200tang]

The only reason I voted for the Red Sox is because of their depth. As we have seen in the past with many many teams. The pitching rotation never stays the same due to injuries and such and the Red Sox will definately benefit from their depth with injuries being kept in mind in this poll.

Depth is depth for a reason. They're usually not very good. Yes, Boston has some pretty good depth, with their best depth pitcher being Buccholz, but the Yankees match him with Joba or Hughes and then after that nobody you're talking about is going to offset any of the guys in the Yankees rotation. Unless you think Boston's 6/7th starters are better than league average, which they're not.

[rschusta24]

Depth is depth for a reason. They're usually not very good. Yes, Boston has some pretty good depth, with their best depth pitcher being Buccholz, but the Yankees match him with Joba or Hughes and then after that nobody you're talking about is going to offset any of the guys in the Yankees rotation. Unless you think Boston's 6/7th starters are better than league average, which they're not.

I think everyone forgets of Dice-K so easily and I believe he will do very well for a 4th starter this year. The guy was lazy and over weight last year and this year so far he is taking a very different approach and I think he will really turn some heads this year.
How do you figure that Boston's 6 and 7th starters are worse that league average?

[Alloutwar]

I'm calling it a draw.

During the season you can easily end up using 6 or 7 starters (or more).

I'll agree that CC is a bit higher than Beckett, but both are Cy Young contenders. Yanks by +0.2

I think Lester outdoes Vasquez now that he is back in the AL, in homer-centric Yankee/Taxpayer Stadium. Lester is a fantastic lefty with a lot of upside still, and numbers-wise already beating out Beckett for ace status. Sox by +0.5

Lackey vs Burnett - I'm not seeing the Burnett draw here - Lackey is fierce and can control a game, while Burnett seems to just fortuitously luck into good performances. When I watch Burnett I feel like it will fall apart any moment. Lackey's ERA+ is 117, Burnett's 110 - Tang, why the 'hands down' better pitcher call for Burnett?? When Lackey's ERA+ has easily beat him year in and year out? Lackey posted a career-high ERA+ of 150, while Burnett's best ever was 122. Lackey could be an ace candidate, Burnett a shakier one - Lackey's been better year in and year out, and had a much better peak value. People are reference Burnett as healthy, and Lackey as an injury risk - but Burnett missed large chunks of time in '04, '06 and '07 - Lackey missed the first month, the last two seasons. Lackey's is more recent and present in some minds, but Burnett's injury record is easily worse over time. Edge: Sox by +0.8

Pettitte vs Dice-K - due to injuries, the problematic control and walk issues, and just an inability to put it all together, Pettitte gets an easy nod here. Dice-K could stil reach his potential and put up better numbers this year, but even at 36/37, Pettitte's the man. Yankees by +1.0

Joba/Hughes vs Buchholz/Wakefield - Wake is a noted yankee killer, and his knuckler had him on the All-Star squad last season. 5th starter being an all star? - sounds good. Buchholz is putting it together, 2nd half last year he was beyond solid (ERA+ 111). Joba has heat and good stuff, but starting put him at an ERA+ of 90, well below Wake (and even further below Buchholz). Hughes having an amazing year put him at ERA+ of 141, but if he was moved to the rotation, would it translate, or would he go Joba? I'm calling it as + Sox, because Joba faltered and Hughes starting is not quantifiable, whereas both Boston options are solid. Sox + 0.4

1 thru 5 result: Sox by +0.5

Depth
Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin vs. Boof Bonser/Junichi Tazawa - I was amazed by Tazawa's stuff, and his ability to start and perform his first season in pro ball. He's definitely got potential, and though 2010 won't see him full-time, he will get the option. Bonser in a long man/7th starter role is fine, too. Mitre was pretty horrid, but Gaudin had good numbers in 11 starts. Bottom line - Bonser > Mitre, but Gaudin is a stronger option that Tazawa, from qhat is known and quantifiable - but Tazawa has lots of potential. All of this is below the first 5 (6!!) rotation options anyway...so I can't even rate it anything but a tossup.

End result still has the Sox slightly ahead, IMO, but it's by small enough of a margin that I call it even.

[200tang]

I think everyone forgets of Dice-K so easily and I believe he will do very well for a 4th starter this year. The guy was lazy and over weight last year and this year so far he is taking a very different approach and I think he will really turn some heads this year.

I really don't get why ANYBODY thinks Dice-K is so amazing. Yes, he's a good 4th starter, but seriously, that's like saying Jack Wilson is an okay hitter because he's not terrible for a SS.

Nobody will argue his '07 was 'pretty good' and his '09 was 'meh'. A lot of people will quote his '08 season..when he put up a 4.03 FIP, 4.46 tRA, 4.70 xFIP. He had a .267 BABIP that year along with a ridiculous .64 HR/FB and 80% LOB%. If we're trying to predict future value, you're not going to ever expect him to repeat those numbers. He's a good 4th starter, but nothing amazing.

Not to mention if we're including injuries, I don't know how you can just assume he's going to be healthy after pitching 59 innings last year and 167 before. Could he be healthy? Sure, but there's no reason for me to believe he will be.

To be honest, Koji Uehara might be the best Japanese import in the AL east, although we won't know until he gets some full seasons in.

How do you figure that Boston's 6 and 7th starters are worse that league average?

I actually meant 7/8. I can't say 100% sure who would get the callup if they needed to use them, but just looking at the top of their minor league system, they have nobody who's going to come in, especially to the AL East, and be above league average. Unless you're severely overemphasizing your farm system.

[rschusta24]

We will see.

[kenny1234]

Just to put some numbers on it - Chone projections give the Red Sox top 5 pitchers (Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz and Matsuzaka) a total of 171 runs above replacement. The same exercise for the Yankees (Sabathia, Vasquez, Pettitte, Burnett and Chamberlain) is 196 runs above replacement. In terms of depth, the next three for the Red Sox (Bowden, Wakefield and Ramirez) are 44 runs above replacement, while the Yankees (Hughes, Gaudin and Mitre) are 56 runs above replacement.

By Chone's measures, the Yankees are probably 3 wins better based on their starting pitching. Relief pitching is closer but would also favor the Yankees.

[kenny1234]

More from the CHONE projections - the one rotation spot that favors the Red Sox is Lackey - who is projected to be better than either Burnett or Pettitte. Beyond that, you get to the 8th pitchers in the rotation to find that Ramon Ramirez is better out of the bullpen than Sergio Mitre. If either team needs significant starts out of their 8th starter, they are probably making trades before using either of those guys.