Selective Application of Statistics

[actionjackson]

also, for anyone who thinks defense is overvalued :

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/1...endly-reminder



unless you don't believe in pythag either, in which case your arguments are going to be based off every 'basic' stat.

ribbies!

[haveacigar]

I suppose if you don't think defense is important, well, then, you'll value players differently. Nothing wrong with that, every team's organization has their own unique way of doing exactly that.

However, it's pretty obvious that Cams is a better fielder than Bay, and if you're ignoring defense entirely, then your way of valuing players is probably not very good.

[free2131]

Once defense is factored in, only Ripken was more valuable than anyone who ever picked up a baseball over the course of his career. Hope that helps.

I agree.

[HoustonGM]

I'm not certain IMO Oz should be a HOF'er.

Well then.... that's the first I've ever heard anybody not named metsguy claim anything other than Ozzie is an easy HOF'er.

And maybe, just maybe there are those that will overrate it?

Maybe.

agreed. i hope you're not suggesting I am misusing it though. I fully understand it doesn't evaluate how much future contracts should be. My issue is with some (and I say some because apparently HGM just provided one that says Bay was better???) that claim Cameron was more valuable a player last year than Bay was...significantly better in fact. IMHO there is no way that is accurate and;

Your issue is purely with FanGraphs WAR. It has Cameron as being about .8 of a win better in 2009. That isn't significantly better. It's 8 runs better overall. CHONE's WAR has Jason Bay being better. BP's WARP has them equal.

So what does this mean? Does this mean that this system claims Ripken, Tejada and Fernandez were all better than Oz over their career?

Offensively.

And maybe some view Cammy and Bay differently because they listen to stat algorithms that place too heavy an emphasis on defense?

I don't think it's implausible that Cameron is a plus defensive center fielder and Bay is a poor defensive left fielder. I also don't think it's implausible that a plus defensive center fielder can be worth 2 wins better purely on the defensive side of things than a poor defensive left fielder.

Let's breakdown FanGraph's WAR of the two players and I'll link to the win values explained articles as I go along.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ained-part-one
Offensively, they have Bay worth 33.7 runs and Cameron worth 9.8 runs, a 23.9 run difference which is a little more than 2 wins. Jason Bay two wins better with the bat than Cameron? Plausible to me.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ained-part-two
Next, they have Bay worth -13 runs on defense and Cameron worth +10 runs, a 23 run difference. The article is a bit out of date, as UZR now DOES include arm and double plays.

Neither of those numbers seems implausible to me. Bay is poor defensively, and Cameron is very good. It has Bay as the second worst full time defensive left fielder, with only Braun being worse (Delmon Young, Adam Dunn and Carlos Quentin also come out worse, though not in full time play). This doesn't strike me as a stretch. Cameron, on the other hand, is ranked 5th among center fielders behind Franklin Gutierrez, BJ Upton, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Again, this doesn't seem like a stretch to me. Cameron's been well-regarded defensively for a while.

So, we stand with Bay at 20.7 runs and Cameron at 19.8.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ined-part-four
Next is a replacement level adjustment, with Bay benefiting slightly more at 21.3 compared to Cameron's 20.9, due to his slightly more playing time. That brings Bay to a total of +42 runs and Cameron to +40.7 runs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ues-part-three
The last adjustment is a positional adjustment, which is an adjustment based on the value of a player at their given position. Cameron gains 2.3 runs because center field is a more valuable position, bringing him up to 43 runs in all. Bay loses 7.1 runs because left field is NOT a valuable position, bringing Bay down to 34.9 runs.

That's it. An 8 run difference, which is basically entirely due to the difference in value between a left fielder and a center fielder. That's not a lot...and, I don't see anything in that process that seems crazy or implausible.

[free2131]

Here, I'll show you the stats that say that Ripken was a baseball God and slew those who dare opposed him.

Ah, yes I see. Very good then. I agree Ripken was the greatest baseball player who ever lived.

It's so nice when you two can agree on something.

[metsguy234]

I consider Ozzie Smith to be one of the Hall's poorer picks. Absolutely putrid hitter, who made flashy plays sometimes and did backflips so everyone loves him. He's like Derek Jeter without the bat.

[free2131]

I consider Ozzie Smith to be one of the Hall's poorer picks. Absolutely putrid hitter, who made flashy plays sometimes and did backflips so everyone loves him. He's like Cal Ripken without the awesome.

While I disagree about Smith, I can't find fault in your comparisons.

[HoustonGM]

I consider Ozzie Smith to be one of the Hall's poorer picks. Absolutely putrid hitter, who made flashy plays sometimes and did backflips so everyone loves him. He's like Derek Jeter without the bat.

And with a great glove, and he wasn't a putrid hitter.

[haveacigar]

Ozzie Smith is like Derek Jeter in the same way that Prince Fielder is like Sean Casey.

Aka not hardly.

[ragecage]

While I disagree about Smith, I can't find anything to argue the fact that Ripken is the best player ever.

I have to agree with ya free, great post.

[metsguy234]

I guess Smith was one of those players you had to see to believe.

[free2131]

cal ripken is untalented in the same way that hitler was a member of the jewish advocacy group.

Aka not hardly.

+1

[free2131]

I guess Ripken was one of those players you had to worship and sacrifice your first born to.

Yes, you're right there.

[ragecage]

and with a great glove, and ripken wasn't a putrid hitter, he was two babe ruths, a ted williams and barry bonds rolled into one.

+1

[ragecage]

Cal Ripken has a cooler nickname and I evaluate all players on "coolest nicknames".

Currently, past and future, Cal Ripken is the best player in the league.

How true it is.