Selective Application of Statistics

[actionjackson]

Slightly off topic, but not really since this thread is about advanced metrics. When considering pitchers for the HOF what metrics do you statheads tend to look at and in what order do you rank them? I ask because WAR is not as useful for pitchers as it is for position players and because tRA+ and the like go back less than 10 years. Thanks.

[HoustonGM]

Slightly off topic, but not really since this thread is about advanced metrics. When considering pitchers for the HOF what metrics do you statheads tend to look at and in what order do you rank them? I ask because WAR is not as useful for pitchers as it is for position players and because tRA+ and the like go back less than 10 years. Thanks.

WAR from baseballprojection is actually pretty good for pitchers. I don't like FanGraphs WAR for pitchers since it's purely based on FIP, but I'm pretty sure that Chone's WAR takes run prevention into account as well. I haven't looked too deep into it but what I have seen of Chone's WAR for pitchers has all seemed reasonable.

Also, ERA+ combined with innings is fine...taking into account how often the pitcher was at or near the top of the league.

[yomamaimontv]

Wow. I started out really intrigued by these stats. After reading through 9 pages of this garbage I must say; ignorance is bliss. I will go back to enjoying my baseball while drinking beer and worrying about a players avg & hr's.

[tangotiger]

I generally agree with your post - but I don't think that the Fan's Scouting Reports, like Fan Projections, are anything but a reflection of the statistical data. The people that post on that site are people that follow the statistical data - so asking them to define who are good players and who aren't is not an unbiased check on the accuracy of statistical measures of defensive ability. The two coincide because the fans that post know the statistical evidence, and simply parrot it back.

Actually, that is pure conjecture on your part.

[kenny1234]

Actually, that is pure conjecture on your part.

You're right - and that is why I prefaced my comments with "I think". I think that it is a problem that is at least worth considering. And I don't think it is a leap to suggest that the people that follow FanGraphs are the statistically minded baseball fans.

I have the same concern with FanGraphs projections giving the Bill James projection and then asking fans for their estimates. The close relationship between the two may be indicative of a consensus, but it could also indicate that people are parroting the expert projection. An interesting test in that one would be to compare the fans projection with the Bill James projection and the CHONE projection. Before the CHONE numbers come out, I would expect the fans numbers to be close to Bill James. After, they will drift towards the CHONE numbers.