2010 CHONE Projections

[200tang]

Four Phillies - Eric Bruntlett, Tyler Walker, Andy Tracy, and Paul Hoover - were removed from the 40-man roster and became free agents today, according to Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The Phillies are idiots, looks like they won't reap the rewards of Andy Tracy

[Wassit3]

I thought this was going to be a set of predictions about Chone Figgins.

*smirk*

[Jeffy25]

if albert draws that few walks, i will eat my hat as well.

[reflections]

When was the last year Ichiro had under 200 hits?

[200tang]

When was the last year Ichiro had under 200 hits?

was this sarcastic?

[metsguy234]

They have Ryan Church in their Mets predictions.

Fail.

[rschusta24]

When was the last year Ichiro had under 200 hits?

Probably when he turned 2 years old.

[rockiesfan4ever]

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

[BINGLEBOP]

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

Stop swinging. Let go.

[HoustonGM]

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

"They" aren't predicting anything. It's all pure mathematical formulas.

[rschusta24]

I love it that they are predicting no Rockie to hit .300 or better.

No Rockies players will hit .300 this year. This is the Schu projection.

[HoustonGM]

It's also important to remember that projections are essentially the MEAN of a bunch of projections. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections (when they're out, which won't be until early 2010, usually) show the percentages at various percentiles - 10th percentile projection, 50th percentile, 90th percentile, etc. A projection like CHONE only shows the mean projection, but it still uses the same basic structure to arrive at that mean. Projections are heavily "regressed to the mean." They don't attempt to project which guys will overperform or underperform their actual talent level - because that is essentially a random event. It is expected that a good amount of players will outperform their projection and a good amount will underperform their projection.