ESPN Web Gems & Defense

[200tang]

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...the_jumpin.php

I assigned every player a position based on where he played the most innings, and all stats count toward that position.

There were five players who made no errors but tallied three or more Web Gems.

Name	    Position	Web Gems
Grady Sizemore	CF	5
Jason Bay	LF	5
David DeJesus	LF	4
Austin Kearns	RF	3
Omar Vizquel	SS	3

Here, you see some hits and some misses. Sizemore and Vizquel are, by all accounts, excellent defensive players. David DeJesus and Austin Kearns are average. And then there’s Jason Bay. For the Jason Bays of the world, I submit to you the Gary Matthews Jr. effect. Matthews, you may recall, made a stupendously phenomenal catch a couple years ago that was replayed and analyzed like the Zapruder film. His defensive reputation was built off of one play. And you can't point out the number of errors for outfielders to disprove the reputation, since outfielders don't make errors. Anyway, I hope nobody signs Jason Bay to a GMJ-type contract.

Another reason many people are misguided in to thinking Jason Bay is a good defender and not..you know..bottom 5 in the entire league.

I would venture that Web Gem percentage correlates with UZR not because Web Gems assess skill, but because they track the most influential plays. The average runs saved per play defensively is .8, a tick higher than that for outfielders. I’d venture that most Web Gems are plays made no better than 10% of the time on average. So for every web gem, you can probably attribute at least half a run to that player's value.

Tangotiger’s invaluable Fans' Scouting Reports finished balloting this week. I’m guessing that Web Gems will be even more influential in shaping the fan’s opinion than in swaying any defensive statistics. Here, I'll report the correlation coefficients between Web Gem percentage and several ratings from the FSR.

	Average	Reactio  Acceleration	Velocity  Hands	 Throwing Strength
1B	0.28	0.26	    0.30	   0.33	   0.23	       0.27
2B	0.24	0.21	    0.24	   0.25	   0.22	       0.21
3B	0.47	0.49	    0.56	   0.43	   0.38	       0.41
SS	0.31	0.31	    0.36	   0.27    0.28	       0.22
LF	0.24	0.15	    0.22	   0.15	   0.19	       0.15
CF	0.00   -0.01	    0.09	   0.07	   0.05	      -0.06
RF     -0.16   -0.11	   -0.08	  -0.17	   0.00	      -0.18

You see that fans are likely more influenced by spectacular plays made by infielders than by outfielders. Since such a significant portion of a third baseman's fielding ability is making the remarkable play, Web Gems correlate well for 3Bs in both UZR and scouting reports. The only surprising result I found is that there isn't a positive correlation between throwing strength from right and center fielders and Web Gem percentage. I figured a lot of outfield Web Gems would be a result of throwing strength. Perhaps throwing strength isn't strongly correlated with outfield assists. Something to look into.

And since the Gold Gloves were announced this week, I'll leave you with a table of each Gold Glovers relevant statistics as well as the guys at each position who I consider to be the best not to have won the award. Adam Jones over Franklin Gutierrez really stands out as a poor selection.

Name	     Position	Errors	Gems	Rating	UZR	Dewan
Adam Wainwright	P	O	O	-	-	-1
Mark Buehrle	P	1	O	-	-	11
Brad Bergesen	P	O	O	-	-	6
Yadier Molina	C	5	3	4.6	-	4
Joe Mauer	C	3	1	4.5	-	-1
Gerald Laird	C	3	O	4.3	-	5
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	7	1	4.1	3.8	8
Mark Teixeira	1B	4	3	4.1	-3.7	O
Albert Pujols	1B	13	3	4.2	1.3	12
Orlando Hudson	2B	8	8	4.2	-3.3	6
Placido Polanco	2B	2	1	4.2	11.4	2
Chase Utley	2B	12	2	4.3	10.8	11
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	17	19	4.4	18.1	21
Evan Longoria	3B	13	2	4.5	18.5	16
Chone Figgins	3B	14	8	4.4	16.7	31
Jimmy Rollins	SS	6	4	4.6	2.7	-2
Derek Jeter	SS	8	2	3.6	6.6	4
Jack Wilson	SS	12	9	4.4	14	27
Matt Kemp	OF	2	6	4.4	2.6	-8
Adam Jones	OF	5	7	4	-4.7	-10
Michael Bourn	OF	3	7	4.6	8.6	5
Torii Hunter	OF	1	5	4.3	-1.4	4
Shane Victorino	OF	1	4	4.5	-4.1	-13
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	4	3	4.6	10.5	12
Franklin Gutier OF	7	4	4.6	29.1	31
Carl Crawford	OF	6	1	4.5	17.5	24
Nyjer Morgan	OF	4	6	4.7	27.8	23

Why did I put basically the entire article in quotes? Mainly because I was bored :|

[skudplayr]

I love how he talks **** about Jason Bay and says he shouldn't get a GMJ type contract in the first quote. But, Bay is a twenty times better offensive producer and deserves to get even more than GMJ got.

[200tang]

I love how he talks **** about Jason Bay and says he shouldn't get a GMJ type contract in the first quote. But, Bay is a twenty times better offensive producer and deserves to get even more than GMJ got.

All he was saying is that Jason Bay is really a DH. You don't give out $16M to DHs who's skill set is based on power and his body type deteriorates rapidly in their mid 30's.