This is the same exact game as 2009.

[SrMeowMeow]

Yeah, I understand. I just feel that my overall point might be getting lost in the shuffle: that in a more organic simulation engine, an increase in contact skill would drive improvement in other (multiple) areas, where in this engine, an improvement in one contact-related area improves contact skill. I think it would be better to model it the first way, because it's a more realistic model of the cause-effect of real baseball, and therefore a better simulation engine.

[HoustonGM]

Yeah, I don't disagree. I think my "sanity check" solution, though, would do what you're looking for without requiring a significant change to the system.

[actionjackson]

[QUOTE=Cards;1290681]

Bwahahahahahaha! I nearly choked to death when I read this.

I believe I said: *now*, not Lifetime statistics.
Thanks for not reading my words correctly.

I actually can read, it's just that lifetime statistics = Player's track record. Less than 100 PA = Miniscule (or infinitesimal if you prefer) sample size. You can basically throw out any sample size below 1500 PA, but once you reach 1500 a track record has been established. As far as future improvement goes, time is on Molina's side as he has 3 years on Dunn (26 to 29 respectively), but he would have to pull off some kind of a miracle (think biblical proportions) to even come close to being the hitter that Adam Dunn is.

OPS+ in the first 3 and a half weeks of 2009:

Dunn: 175
Molina: 141 (very respectable, but only based on 77 PA)

Same thing for Dunn in *HIS* 84-85 (approx.) PA's!

I only included it due to your incessant crowing about Yadi's 77 PA stats. You can basically throw both numbers out due to sample size.

Still looking at LIFETIME instead of 2009 statistics (and not on both Off/Def.) sides, I see.

For "lifetime" (and I won't use caps despite the temptation) reference please refer to my first post re: small sample size. As for the bolded part, you started this brouhaha, this chicanery by suggesting that Yadi was practically equal to Dunn as a hitter now (which he never will be), not even counting how many PO's and A's he gets compared to Dunn's A's. 1) That says to me that you're saying forget about defense, Yadi is practically equal to Dunn as a hitter now, which is a load of bunk. 2) Well of course Yadi's gonna have more PO's and A's than Dunn, look at the positions they play. Nobody is disputing the fact that Dunn is a fencepost in LF and Yadi is a stud behind the plate. Your statement removed defense from the equation, rendering it patently and ridiculously untrue.

You yourself quoted the (temporary) 175 OPS+ for Dunn, way over his head presently. You know he isn't going to stay in that rarefied air.
1) Molina is on the way UP in his batting prowess so even though he may come down some from his 141, Dunn will lose air faster as 2009 continues.
Dunn isn't going to suddenly increase his OPS+ from 2008 (129) to a whopping 175 or even close to it. 2) He got much of his 129 OPS+ from his 122 W (incl. 13 IWs), so without swinging the bat, he got much of his 129 from watching pitches go by or getting a FREE PASS 3) probably because his weak teams (mostly CIN) didn't have a good hitter behind him so the opposition could afford to IW or PA him. That doesn't necessarily mean 4) he was a great hitter. Any batter that could only hit .236 with a whopping 164 K's (even with his 40 HRs) shouldn't be considered 4a) some "great" hitter, 5) especially in today's artificially-inflated hitter's era, that is 'era' not ERA. 6) Not even counting the steroid possibility for the Big Donkey [LOL, nickname!], 7) but the entire mentality of baseball promoting more hitting at the expense of the pitcher for well over a decade now. 8) He isn't a threat to steal, he isn't a smart baserunner, 8a) and is slow, and he's a poor fielder--*the worst* LF'er in the game. He belongs in the AL, if only because of the crappy DH rule they have there. If this was a pitcher's era (ex, 1965-1968) instead of the opposite today, he'd be hitting about .190, and be long gone. 9) He typifies the worst of MLB today as far as skill is concerned.

1) We are talking about a 3 year gap in age between the two. Dunn's window for improving has probably closed at 29, Molina better hurry up, because he's got a lot of catching up to do.

2) How many times must it be said? BB, IBB > Outs. Period.

3) And this is Adam Dunn's fault/shortcoming how?

4) and 4a) Nobody is saying he's a great hitter. We're just kinda baffled as to why you can't admit that he's a very good one.

5) OPS+ which is what we're using mainly, accounts for all eras that includes this offensive era the roaring '20's and into the '30's, the deadball era, the '60's pitching era as well as the more normal eras, so this point is moot.

6) And your sources for this are?...Because without proof it's kinda speculation and rumour-mongering...or slander. Because he's big and hits homeruns? That's pretty lame. It's the Brady Andersons and the Luis Gonzalezes that you should reserve this kind of scrutiny for, for hitting 50+ HR out of nowhere exactly one season despite 2nd highest season HR totals of 24 and 31 respectively. But even that would be improper and slanderous. Dunn has 5 straight seasons with 40+ HR and in each of the last four he's hit exactly 40. There's the consistent part of his game. He has also never hit 50 in his career.

7) Are you related to Buzz Bissinger? The telltale signs are being angry at the way things currently are (not being able to see any of the upside of the way things are) and wistfully longing for a return to the way things were. If you start saying things like: "I think that blogs are dedicated to cruelty, they're dedicated to journalistic dishonesty." and "It really pi$$e$ the sh!t out of me. It is the complete dumbing down of our society." please call your doctor or 911 or go to your nearest walk-in clinic or hospital emergency room as soon as possible. You are not well.

8 and 8a) Why are you dragging base stealing ability and lack of speed into a comparison between Adam Dunn and Yadier Molina? (or any Molina brother for that matter). Since you did I'll run with it. Between the ages of 21 and 26 Dunn stole 48 bases and was caught 16 times, good for a 75.0% SB%. During the same ages (all of Yadi's career so far), Molina has stolen 5 bases and been caught 10 times good for a 33.3% SB%. Who's costing his team relative to who now?

9) It's time to build yourself a time machine and transport yourself back to the dead-ball era. Just watch out for that Spanish Flu. I hear it's a real b!tch especially since antibiotics ain't been invented yet.

One more thing re: Dunn's high K rate and Molina's low K rate. You're glossing over their GDP rates, which of course is a consequence of putting the ball in play a lot when you're as slow as a Molina brother. Dunn has almost 2.5 times more PA than Molina, yet Molina has 13 more GDP than Dunn. Why is that important? Their GDP rates are at the opposite ends of the spectrum:

Molina: 1994 PA / 72 GDP = 27.69 PA / GDP

Dunn: 4833 PA / 59 GDP = 81.92 PA / GDP

So, Molina hits into DP at almost 3 times the rate that Dunn does and in any baseball universe: K > GDP.

Also, if you look at the top 20 active hitters in OBP, not all of them are complete fenceposts on defense. They include your beloved Albert who is excellent on defense and extremely proficient at getting on base. A player being good at avoiding outs at the plate does not correlate with that player having little or no defensive ability whatsoever.

My predictions for Dunn and Molina this year:

Dunn gets a 130 OPS+ (1 point below his career average, 1 point above last year's output).

Molina gets a 100 OPS+ for the first time in his career (21 points above his career average, and a 5 point improvement on last year).

So, Molina will be a major league average hitter this year, while Dunn will continue to be a very good hitter, making Dunn the better hitter.

[SrMeowMeow]

I agree 99% with everything HGM and actionjackson are saying. However, since I am perversely drawn to defending people who don't really deserve it, I will point out my issue with this:

So, Molina hits into DP at almost 3 times the rate that Dunn does and in any baseball universe: K > GDP.

because it's disingenuous. K > GDP and K > ground out but K < ground ball, which is the controllable skill for the batter.

[HoustonGM]

because it's disingenuous. K > GDP and K > ground out but K < ground ball, which is the controllable skill for the batter.

GDP's do have a controllable element. Ichiro, for example, is an extreme groundball hitter, but rarely grounds into DP's because of his speed.

[SrMeowMeow]

GDP's do have a controllable element. Ichiro, for example, is an extreme groundball hitter, but rarely grounds into DP's because of his speed.

Agreed. That doesn't really change my point though.

[Rorgg]

I think the underlying point is that Ks for a hitter, somewhat counterintuitively, really aren't that much worse than making an out in another way, statistically -- and part of that reason is that when you K, you're not hitting into a DP. So, the real response is "he struck out 164 times? So what? That doesn't come close to erasing the 30 point difference in OBP."

[SrMeowMeow]

Yes, but, intuitively, Ks are still bad because the ball doesn't get put in play. Again, it's not the groundout that's most controllable, it's the groundball. Sharply hit ground balls go pretty randomly for hits and outs.

[haveacigar]

Yes, but, intuitively, Ks are still bad because the ball doesn't get put in play. Again, it's not the groundout that's most controllable, it's the groundball. Sharply hit ground balls go pretty randomly for hits and outs.

It's misleading to debate the negatives of a K vs. a groundout, because neither is any good and rarely productive. No one is saying that strikeouts are good for a batter. In fact, if you kept all of Dunn's other numbers the same and turned each one of his Ks into some sort of in play out, he'd probably be a much better player. But, he does strike out, and that's ok. The key point to take away from this is that they are both outs, and the object of the game is to avoid making out.

It just so happens that Adam Dunn is very good at that object. And when it comes to dating, I'm also pretty good at that....wait...

[HoustonGM]

The real point is that while I'd rather a ball be put into play than the batter strike out, how often a batter strikes out is largely irrelevant to his overall value as a hitter.

[GOYANKSGONJ]

If you don't like the game, come up with something better!

[SrMeowMeow]

It's misleading to debate the negatives of a K vs. a groundout, because neither is any good and rarely productive. No one is saying that strikeouts are good for a batter. In fact, if you kept all of Dunn's other numbers the same and turned each one of his Ks into some sort of in play out, he'd probably be a much better player. But, he does strike out, and that's ok. The key point to take away from this is that they are both outs, and the object of the game is to avoid making out.

It just so happens that Adam Dunn is very good at that object. And when it comes to dating, I'm also pretty good at that....wait...

Well, this is getting beaten to death, so I'll stop soon. My point is that Dunn wouldn't turn all his Ks into groundouts. He'd turn them into groundballs, some of which would be hits. It's unrealistic to think that if Adam Dunn never struck out, that all of his balls in play that were strikeouts would conveniently be outs on balls in play.

[HoustonGM]

On the same token, it's also unrealistic to think that Adam Dunn would be an equivalent player, just with less strikeouts and more hits, because part of the reason he gets so many strikeouts is because he's very patient at the plate, and in order to cut down his strikeouts, he'd likely also wind up cutting down his walks, and perhaps his power because cutting down his strikeouts would require shortening his swing.

[haveacigar]

Well, this is getting beaten to death, so I'll stop soon. My point is that Dunn wouldn't turn all his Ks into groundouts. He'd turn them into groundballs, some of which would be hits. It's unrealistic to think that if Adam Dunn never struck out, that all of his balls in play that were strikeouts would conveniently be outs on balls in play.

That isn't at all what I said.

[ohms_law]

Guys, This horse isn't just dead, it's a bloody pulp...