This is the same exact game as 2009.

[actionjackson]

But he didn't EARN it. The defense gave him a FREE PASS as a strategy option.

Please see post #90 above, time stamped at 1:05 am. I had not read this when I posted - ladies and gentlemen I believe I'm psychic.

[actionjackson]

Yadi is practically equal to Dunn as a hitter *now*, not even counting how many PO's and A's he gets compared to Dunn's A's.

Bwahahahahahaha! I nearly choked to death when I read this.

Lifetime OPS+:

Dunn: 131
Molina: 78

OPS+ in the first 3 and a half weeks of 2009:

Dunn: 175
Molina: 141 (very respectable, but only based on 77 PA)

Going into this season:

Dunn's worst OPS+ season: 114 (2006)
Molina's best OPS+ season: 95 (2008)

Good morning, good afternoon, goodnight!

I'm glad you're a fan of Yadi. I am too, but please don't try saying he's practically equal to Dunn as a hitter *now* unless of course you're trying out some new comedy routine on the Mogulers. That is a preposterous statement that is totally flawed and makes you look like you're talking out of your a$$. Either that or you're being bowled over blinded by fanboy love. It just is not true.

[cfeedback]

Couldn't resist just chiming in and saying I'm a member of the ADFC. It brings a smile to my face to remember one of the first articles I ever wrote in Outahere. I'm not shy so I'll quote myself. I think I defined TTO% as (HR + BB + K / AB), and this was after the 2014 season.

1. RF Adam Dunn (Cutthroats) TTO% = 57.61%
(41HR 123BB 154K 552AB)
Dunn is the epitome of the TTO mold player, and the Rob Deer of our generation. Boasting a lifetime TTO of 59.19%, we of the RDFC bow down and worship the one true prophet who works tirelessly to bring others to the faith. Why he does not win the MVP every season is beyond us.

Molina is a nice player, but I think if I could clone Dunn and play him (or a similar type) at every position, defense be damned, I'd win a lot of championships. YMMV.

[haveacigar]

I'm wondering if Cards is Ned Colletti's screen name.

Think of it this way: What is the difference between a K and an out in play?

Well, nothing. Sometimes goofy stuff happens in play, but that's rare, maybe 20 plays per season max.

What's the difference between a single and a walk?

Again, really, nothing. Single might be better in certain situations, but over the course of the year, one fact ALWAYS holds true:

If hitter A has a better ratio of Ks + in-play-outs to base-hits + walks than hitter B, then hitter A is a better hitter! I'm not impressed with Yuni Betancourt's and Juan Pierre's ability to hit the ball softly to an infielder, but I am impressed with Carlos Pena's ability to be on base all the time.

[Cards]

Uh, that's called on-base percentage.

O / PA = Outs per Plate Appearance. Not quite the OBA that is figured differently.

Dunn gets roughly 10 IBB's per year. He still walks over 100 times on his own.

Takes the bat right outta his hands, doens't it?

Well, again, we're not talking about them as overall players.

Then, you aren't being fair to [Molina] in evaluating them completely as players.

Okay, um, WTF? You cite Dunn's season numbers, then dismiss them as being far above his career averages....and then compare the players by using Molina's 18 games in 2009 vs. Dunn's entire career? And that's proof that "Molina is better than Dunn presently?" What in hell's name? That is some of the most baffling stat manipulation I've ever seen.

I mis-quoted Dunn in looking at his OBA career number instead of how he was presently in '09. My eyes wandered too far down the page. LOL

I have no idea what you're saying here. 16 A? 16 what? A usually means assists, but Yadier has 13 of those.

Look again: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_...layerID=425877 I believe that Assist number is 16.

And, if that is indeed what you're comparing, are you seriously comparing raw assist totals of a corner outfielder vs. a catcher? WHAT?

You have to consider Molina *in total* to fairly compare him to Dunn since they play different positions. Otherwise, Molina looks worse than he really is when you consider how much his DEFENSIVE numbers, such as PO's, is just as important as Dunn's OFFENSIVE numbers.

But, we're talking about OFFENSIVE VALUE, position independent.

Then you are being unfair to those who play a different position--and maybe the key one in the whole game besides the pitcher. DEFENSE and PITCHING win more games than only looking at the OFFENSIVE side. That's why John Dewan (and others) have now looked more closely at the DEFENSE side with books such as "The Fielding Bible" and other new DEFENSE statistics such as Fielding Runs. They all count in the game, same as offensive runs on the other side of the same coin.

BTW, Molina won the only award for a C in 2008 (same as in 2007) and Pujols won the only award for a 1b-man. Only one winner per position, such as the original Cy Young Award also did until the mid-1960s.

Adam Dunn has a -10 Runs Saved (LF -9 +/- and -1 OF Arm).
Yadi Molina has a +1 Runs Saved (C).

You have to give a +11 Runs Saved difference to Yadi Molina, if you want to be fair to him as a C instead of an OF'er since C's aren't promoted to the majors mainly for their prowess with the bat compared to OF'ers. Otherwise, you are comparing the proverbial apples to oranges. And I *know* you don't want to be unfair or compare different things.

BTW, John Dewan's book ("The Fielding Bible") rates Adam Dunn the WORST LF in the game of all 30 teams, he is ranked 30th. [p. 301]

That's a bad strike agaiinst Dunn, even though it has nothing to do with hitting, you can't just isolate a player any longer into only looking at his offensive numbers. DEFENSE is important, too!

"Dunn is a designated hitter trapped in the National League."
--John Dewan ("The Fielding Bible" Vol. 2, 2009, p. 310)

Now for the C's side and Y. Molina won his first (of many yet to come) Gold Glove and his second consecutive "Fielding Bible Award" as Catcher in 2008.


Top Ten (catchers) evaluation, John Dewan

1. Yadier Molina (StL)
2. Jose Molina (NYY)
3. Jason Kendall (Mil.)
4. Rod Barajas (Tor.)
5. Bengie Molina (SF)

About YADIER MOLINA, according to John Dewan:

"He had the most Good Fielding Plays (not involving pitches) of any catcher in baseball in 2008." [p. 334]

Yadi led all catchers with 7 PO's (4 more than anyone else) in 2008.

Well, I'm not sure why you would count that when discussing hitting....but it is monumentally stupid to compare raw fielding putouts and assists cross-position. Adam Dunn is not a good fielder, that's correct. Yadier Molina is an excellent fielder, that's correct. Their overall value as players is a lot closer than the difference in their offensive abilities, but, once again, that's not what we're discussing. We're discussing how a player's strikeout rate tells you nothing about his overall offensive value.

It *does* have a negative factor in trying to help the team if he K's in a key situation. You can't agree on that basic point? Heck, anyone can K in a key AB situation with the game on the line. Who would you rather have to drive in a key run and need to make contact instead of mere K or a weak popup or groundout: Adam Dunn (who doesn't have that good an eye or contact number) or a great contact hitter such as Yadi Molina who also shows he can pop the ball--just not as frequently as Dunn? POWER is only one factor in hitting, it isn't everything and frequently is NOTHING if the batter doesn't make CONTACT in the first place. You can't get any type of hit if you don't HIT the ball. That's a fact you can't deny.

Dunn taking a W also doesn't (usually) get the runner Home unless the bases are jammed. How often does *that* occur?

[Cards]

Well, OBP isn't concerned with that. All it is concerned with is "Did the hitter make an out?" Removing IBB's from OBP is silly, because IBB's are getting on-base, which is what OBP measures.

And again, even removing IBB's, Dunn gets on base a lot.

Because the pitchers PITCH AROUND him or give him the IW maybe also because there is nobody behind him who can make the pitchers pay for IW/PA him.

Strategy shouldn't impact a player's evaluation as a hitter, and that is precisely what happens with the IW.
OBP is artificially inflated in using the IWs with the real W's since the batter didn't DO anything but just stand there and look silly while the pitcher pitches 4 wide ones.

[Cards]

This is ludicrous. Any hitter earns his intentional walks because the other teams recognize the offensive threat that he represents.

That's true, much of the time. But not always. It could also be the L/R matchup, too! Tony La Russa uses that L/R idea more than most mgr.'s and he may order an IW just to get a more favorable matchup with the pitcher and his record against the next batter. So you see it doesn't always mean the batter is some feared slugging monster a pitcher doesn't want to pitch against. It could be a relatively weak hitter who just happens to have good luck against that particular pitcher. You've seen that done many times in pitcher-batter matchups.

As for this "much vaunted OBA" garbage: baseball is a very simple game. You either make an out or you don't make an out

Where do you place a W? He didn't make an out, but he didn't get a H either!
Sort of, somewhere in the middle. Isn't the idea to get HITS that push runners along more than just one base, and W's could only make a 1-base advance--and only if 1b is occupied in the first place.

or you get charged with making an out because some schmuck on the other team had a brain cramp in the field. I'll take the guys who don't make outs. You can take your Omar Moreno (The King of Outmakers) type hitters. Over the course of a long season I guarantee you my team will come out on top as far as runs scored. That's a fact, Jack.

That also depends on the PITCHING and DEFENSE on both teams, Jack.
Hitting isn't everything in the game. It isn't even MOST of the game--PITCHING and DEFENSE are far more important. And DEFENSE is the most overlooked part of the game of any of its components!

[Cards]

[QUOTE=actionjackson;1290646]Bwahahahahahaha! I nearly choked to death when I read this.

Lifetime OPS+:

Dunn: 131
Molina: 78

I believe I said: *now*, not Lifetime statistics.
Thanks for not reading my words correctly.


OPS+ in the first 3 and a half weeks of 2009:

Dunn: 175
Molina: 141 (very respectable, but only based on 77 PA)

Same thing for Dunn in *HIS* 84-85 (approx.) PA's!

Going into this season:

Dunn's worst OPS+ season: 114 (2006)
Molina's best OPS+ season: 95 (2008)

Good morning, good afternoon, goodnight!

Still looking at LIFETIME instead of 2009 statistics (and not on both Off/Def.) sides, I see.

I'm glad you're a fan of Yadi. I am too, but please don't try saying he's practically equal to Dunn as a hitter *now* unless of course you're trying out some new comedy routine on the Mogulers. That is a preposterous statement that is totally flawed and makes you look like you're talking out of your a$$. Either that or you're being bowled over blinded by fanboy love. It just is not true.

You yourself quoted the (temporary) 175 OPS+ for Dunn, way over his head presently. You know he isn't going to stay in that rarefied air.
Molina is on the way UP in his batting prowess so even though he may come down some from his 141, Dunn will lose air faster as 2009 continues.
Dunn isn't going to suddenly increase his OPS+ from 2008 (129) to a whopping 175 or even close to it. He got much of his 129 OPS+ from his 122 W (incl. 13 IWs), so without swinging the bat, he got much of his 129 from watching pitches go by or getting a FREE PASS probably because his weak teams (mostly CIN) didn't have a good hitter behind him so the opposition could afford to IW or PA him. That doesn't necessarily mean he was a great hitter. Any batter that could only hit .236 with a whopping 164 K's (even with his 40 HRs) shouldn't be considered some "great" hitter, especially in today's artificially-inflated hitter's era, that is 'era' not ERA. Not even counting the steroid possibility for the Big Donkey [LOL, nickname!], but the entire mentality of baseball promoting more hitting at the expense of the pitcher for well over a decade now. He isn't a threat to steal, he isn't a smart baserunner, and is slow, and he's a poor fielder--*the worst* LF'er in the game. He belongs in the AL, if only because of the crappy DH rule they have there. If this was a pitcher's era (ex, 1965-1968) instead of the opposite today, he'd be hitting about .190, and be long gone. He typifies the worst of MLB today as far as skill is concerned.

[Cards]

Couldn't resist just chiming in and saying I'm a member of the ADFC. It brings a smile to my face to remember one of the first articles I ever wrote in Outahere. I'm not shy so I'll quote myself. I think I defined TTO% as (HR + BB + K / AB), and this was after the 2014 season.

I don't know what your TTO% and ADFC abbreviations represent or stand for.
Please enlighten me.

Molina is a nice player, but I think if I could clone Dunn and play him (or a similar type) at every position, defense be damned, I'd win a lot of championships. YMMV.

I hope you are making a joke at Dunn's expense.
If I could pitch Chris Carpenter or another very good pitcher against him every day, Dunn would barely get his bat on the ball, much less hit his cheap HRs in a overly-hitter era as we have today.

[Cards]

I'm wondering if Cards is Ned Colletti's screen name.

Ned WHO? Sorry, you have the wrong number!
Hang up and dial again.

Think of it this way: What is the difference between a K and an out in play?

Well, nothing. Sometimes goofy stuff happens in play, but that's rare, maybe 20 plays per season max.

I suppose you counted all 20 of those rare plays yourself?

Sorry again, but those "goofy" things happen to ONE team a number of times per season and 20 is really low-balling it when you have a dozen or so ground balls per team per game. Multiply that by 162 G and that's a lot more than a mere 20 goofy plays in a season. Wild throws, funny bounces, ball-hitting-unpires, all sorts of things can go wrong when a ball is in play. The worst that usually can happen on a K is the wild pitch where a catcher has to throw to 1b to retire the batter on a 3rd strike. That's a BIG difference over the course of 162 games with thousands of grounders in a typical season.

Anybody who doesn't see that doesn't have their eyes open to what is happening on the field with a batted ball.

What's the difference between a single and a walk?

EXTRA bases for a runner going from 1b-to-3b, or a runner SCORING from second base. Happens all the time! What games are you seeing that don't have those plays at least once a game if not three times counting both teams?

Again, really, nothing.

You must be blind. Except when leading off, a single can push runners more than one base and the lead runners don't have to be on at least 1b to advance as they'd have to have (on 1b) to advance on a W.

Single might be better in certain situations, but over the course of the year, one fact ALWAYS holds true

Singles are better than W's. Almost always except for leading off an inning and then they are equal, although there is also the psychological factor in getting a hit leading off an inning that may rattle the pitcher and make him more nervous, and make him throw more bad pitches enough to get his mgr. to yank him.

[HoustonGM]

O / PA = Outs per Plate Appearance. Not quite the OBA that is figured differently.

It's the same thing reversed, except that O/PA would include sacrifice flies and OBP doesn't.

Then, you aren't being fair to [Molina] in evaluating them completely as players.

BUT I'M NOT EVALUATING THEM COMPLETELY AS PLAYERS. I'm talking about how strikeout rate is not related to a player's offensive value.

Look again: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_...layerID=425877 I believe that Assist number is 16.

Either he got 3 assists in last night's game, or MLB.com is counting Assists differently than baseball-reference.

You have to consider Molina *in total* to fairly compare him to Dunn since they play different positions. Otherwise, Molina looks worse than he really is when you consider how much his DEFENSIVE numbers, such as PO's, is just as important as Dunn's OFFENSIVE numbers.

If I was discussing them as overall players, you'd be correct....and I'm not doing that.

Then you are being unfair to those who play a different position--and maybe the key one in the whole game besides the pitcher. DEFENSE and PITCHING win more games than only looking at the OFFENSIVE side. That's why John Dewan (and others) have now looked more closely at the DEFENSE side with books such as "The Fielding Bible" and other new DEFENSE statistics such as Fielding Runs. They all count in the game, same as offensive runs on the other side of the same coin.

Again, you'd be right, if I was discussing them as overall players, rather than focusing solely on strikeout rate and offensive level.

That's a bad strike agaiinst Dunn, even though it has nothing to do with hitting, you can't just isolate a player any longer into only looking at his offensive numbers. DEFENSE is important, too!

I'll just repeat myself: Adam Dunn is not a good fielder, that's correct. Yadier Molina is an excellent fielder, that's correct. Their overall value as players is a lot closer than the difference in their offensive abilities, but, once again, that's not what we're discussing. We're discussing how a player's strikeout rate tells you nothing about his overall offensive value. You seem to just be diverting the conversation away from that.

It *does* have a negative factor in trying to help the team if he K's in a key situation. You can't agree on that basic point?

Yes, a K in a key situation is negative.

Who would you rather have to drive in a key run and need to make contact instead of mere K or a weak popup or groundout: Adam Dunn (who doesn't have that good an eye or contact number) or a great contact hitter such as Yadi Molina who also shows he can pop the ball--just not as frequently as Dunn?

A) Adam Dunn doesn't have that good an eye? Where are you getting this stuff from?
B) There are certain situations where I'd rather a contact hitter than Adam Dunn. Overall, Adam Dunn is more valuable.

POWER is only one factor in hitting, it isn't everything and frequently is NOTHING if the batter doesn't make CONTACT in the first place. You can't get any type of hit if you don't HIT the ball. That's a fact you can't deny.

But, I'm discussing overall offensive value, not situation-specific offensive value.

Strategy shouldn't impact a player's evaluation as a hitter, and that is precisely what happens with the IW.

The strategy is due, in part, to the player's offensive ability. They IBB Dunn because they know he is a very damaging hitter.

OBP is artificially inflated in using the IWs with the real W's since the batter didn't DO anything but just stand there and look silly while the pitcher pitches 4 wide ones.

Once again, remove IBB's, Dunn still gets on base a lot.

So you see it doesn't always mean the batter is some feared slugging monster a pitcher doesn't want to pitch against.

But it always means that the batter, for whatever reason, got on base, and that it was OBP measures.

Where do you place a W? He didn't make an out, but he didn't get a H either!
Sort of, somewhere in the middle.

Well, considering actionjackson said "You either make an out or you don't make an out", a walk is placed under the "don't make an out" category.

Isn't the idea to get HITS that push runners along more than just one base, and W's could only make a 1-base advance--and only if 1b is occupied in the first place.

Actually, the idea is to score as many runs as possible. Outs are the currency of baseball. Any time a runner gets on base instead of making an out, he is increasing his team's chances at scoring run. Yes, a hit is better than a walk, overall. However, a player who gets a lot of hits and not a lot of walks, at the expense of MAKING A LOT MORE OUTS, is less valuable than a player who does NOT use up as many outs, generally speaking.

I believe I said: *now*, not Lifetime statistics.

A) To be fair, you misquoted the "Now" statistics.
B) 20 or so games is not enough of a sample size to determine who is the better hitter now. All it can tell you is who was the better hitter during those 20 or so games. And, even then, the answer is Dunn.

Still looking at LIFETIME instead of 2009 statistics (and not on both Off/Def.) sides, I see.

Tell me, why would we look at both sides when we're purely discussing their offense? You are claiming that Yadier Molina is a better hitter than Adam Dunn. That is not true. To disprove that silly notion, we use offensive statistics, because that is what the discussion is about.

You yourself quoted the (temporary) 175 OPS+ for Dunn, way over his head presently. You know he isn't going to stay in that rarefied air.

Same goes for Yadier Molina.

Molina is on the way UP in his batting prowess so even though he may come down some from his 141, Dunn will lose air faster as 2009 continues.

Maybe, maybe not.

unn isn't going to suddenly increase his OPS+ from 2008 (129) to a whopping 175 or even close to it.

Yadier Molina isn't going to suddenly increase his OPS+ from 2008 (95) to a whopping 141 or even close to it.

Any batter that could only hit .236 with a whopping 164 K's (even with his 40 HRs) shouldn't be considered some "great" hitter, especially in today's artificially-inflated hitter's era, that is 'era' not ERA.

He's not a GREAT hitter, but he's a very good one. He's better than Yadier Molina. Any batter that could only get on base 35% of the time with a whopping .304 batting average with no power shouldn't be considered some "great" hitter, especially in today's environment.

He typifies the worst of MLB today as far as skill is concerned.

False, false, false, false, false, false, a thousand times false. Where are you even coming up with this nonsense? Yes, Adam Dunn, overall, isn't an especially valuable player because of his terrible defense. But, again, nobody is claiming otherwise. We're discussing purely how STRIKEOUT RATE IS NOT RELATED TO OVERALL OFFENSIVE VALUE.

Ned WHO? Sorry, you have the wrong number!
Hang up and dial again.

Woosh, over the head.

Ned Colletti = Dodgers GM, the one that wasted $45 million on Juan Pierre.

Singles are better than W's. Almost always except for leading off an inning and then they are equal

Yes, that's true.

And walks are better than outs. Oh, and extra-base hits are better than singles.

Overall, Adam Dunn is a better hitter than numerous players who hit a lot of singles without striking out, but also use up a lot of outs and don't hit for power. I really can't believe this is even a discussion.


My point: There is no correlation between strikeout rate and overall offensive value. This has nothing to do with position, defense, etc.

[SrMeowMeow]

Yes, it's probably not good to draw any conclusions from future fictional players created with BM 2010 (and even 2009). Too many issues.

Well, okay, I mean, this is hardly fair

I can't argue edited players, because that doesn't come up in normal gameplay, and I can't argue future fictional players, leaving only players in the first year of the game, which aren't based on the engine in the same way, since their predicted numbers come from projection systems, which come from real stats, so you're not going to get unrealistic outliers.

[haveacigar]

If you can't tell me who Ned Colletti is, you instantly lose all credibility. Sorry.

[Jeff Olsen]

Adam Dunn doesn't have that good an eye? Where are you getting this stuff from?

Simple: he's not Albert Pujols or Rick Ankiel. Hell, he's not even a Card.

[HoustonGM]

Well, okay, I mean, this is hardly fair

I can't argue edited players, because that doesn't come up in normal gameplay, and I can't argue future fictional players, leaving only players in the first year of the game, which aren't based on the engine in the same way, since their predicted numbers come from projection systems, which come from real stats, so you're not going to get unrealistic outliers.

Your overall point stands. I'm just saying that there are flaws in the player creation/development engine as is. If those flaws are corrected (which I believe is in the process of becoming the case), these players shouldn't be created. If they still are being created with a more accurate player creation/development engine, than there's more stuff that needs to be corrected.