Somehow, I suspect a team of Adam Dunn clones would score a lot more than 7.4 runs per game. And you'd probably see 40 run games -- maybe both ways!
Somehow, I suspect a team of Adam Dunn clones would score a lot more than 7.4 runs per game. And you'd probably see 40 run games -- maybe both ways!
Sorry I brought it up, I never said Dawson deserved the MVP in 1987. Ernie Banks also won a pair of MVPs on bad (but not last place) teams, it's sort of a Cubs tradition.
I really don't have the energy for this type of argument. I enjoy Mogul and running one of the premier online leagues (there's a few of them out there, but Outahere is definitely in the top five) and I try to post on SM once in awhile but my heart really isn't in it for this sort of thing.
Good luck to Pujols and the Cards this season!
I don't understand this whole last-place team garbage. If a player was the most valuable player to his team in the league, then he was the most valuable player to his team in the league...end of discussion. Why should a player who happened to have a sucky supporting cast have this held against him?
By the way I am not arguing for Andre Dawson, but I am arguing for a player on a team that finished last in the National League: Tony Gwynn of the San Diego Padres. The Wizard of Oz was surrounded by solid players in St. Louis. Tony Gwynn? Is it his fault that the Padres pitching staff was amongst the worst in the league despite having a better than average defense? Umm, no. Is it his fault that the only other hitters that performed at or near his level were Randy Ready and John Kruk? Umm, no. St. Louis had one of the top three pitching staffs in the league that year, while San Diego was in the bottom three. So we should give the award to Ozzie Smith over the better player that year Tony Gwynn because Smith happened to play for the team with better pitching? *smacks forehead* Please enlighten us all and try not to use the lazy writers way out, namely: "because he played on a first place team". That didn't get Alan Trammell, clearly the best player in the AL that year enough love to overcome George Bell's HR and RBI - and I am a Blue Jay fan, but the fact is Bell wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team that year (Tony Fernandez). I eagerly await your reply.
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Well, it goes back to what Branch Rickey once told Ralph Kiner: "We can finish last without you". Take a really good player and put him on a really bad team. Let's say he's worth 30 wins a season (using whatever metric floats your boat), and nobody else in the league is worth that much. Now lets say the team finishes last, at 61-101. He was worth 12 wins, so without him they would have been 49-113--but not really, because we can't assume his replacement would be worth zero wins. Let's say that his replacement is worth 4 wins, so their record would be 53-109 (it won't change the analysis mcuh how exactly what the value of the replacement is). The point is, this is a hundred loss team, and noboby was going to change that.
Now look at the second best player in the league; let's say that he was worth 10 wins. His team though, finished 91-71 and made the playoffs as the wildcard. Let's assume a replacement worth 4 wins again, so without him, the team would have gone 85-77 and missed the postseason.
So, the question becomes: what's more valuable--the difference between going finishing last at 53-109 and finishing last at 61-101, or the difference between making the playoffs at 91-71 and missing the playoffs at 85-77?
EDIT: And the reason that Dawson won the MVP in 1987 because Ozzie and Jack Clark split the Cardinal vote.
I would say that making the difference between the playoffs or not is more valuable to a team's overall goal of making the playoffs....BUT....that the award is for an INDIVIDUAL PLAYER, and the player can't control his circumstances, so the player that provided more value himself, regardless of his team's place in the standings, should get the award.
Not trying to argue for Dawson in 1987, because he clearly (sabermetrically) wasn't the best player in that year, but the reason he won was that he led the league in HRs and RBIs, which was what voters looked for back in the day. Not to mention the fact that he was still pretty good defensively (he might've lost a step or two range wise, but still had a cannon for an arm) and won a Gold Glove.
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