Jays > Rays??

[TheNamelessPoet]

Mets at 80? Really? I have them as the NL Champions.

Most people do...
But I see Delgado stepping back a little and that pitching staff is maybe the 4th worst... has the best #1 but not the best throughout... I'd say

#1 Braves
#2 Marlins (Nearly Interchangable)
#3 Philies (nearly interchanhable)
#4 Mets (with the best #1)
#5 Nats

Dont get me wrong the top 3 are all very close to each other and its not like ive got the braves as the best and the next 2 mediocre... the top 3 are all very good.

[TheNamelessPoet]

I guess I wasn't clear enough.

I think third is their ceiling. I don't think it's all that unrealistic to assume the Blue Jays might finish ahead of them. I certainly think it's more than a 0.7% chance. If I had to pick who would finish third, I'd pick the Rays, but I wouldn't be shocked at the end of the year if the standings were Sox/Yanks, Jays, Rays, O's. Wouldn't be shocked at all.

I'd be shocked... ive got a feeling they are going to be better than last year... but so are the yanks and maybe the sox as well... Toronto has done absolutly NOTHING to get better

[Arctic Blast]

Toronto is ghastly this year. Their rotation consists of Roy Halladay and 4 heaping helpings of "WHO?!" Their offense isn't likely to light anyone up on a regular basis, either.

[kenny1234]

I'd say that it is unlikely that the Jays finish ahead of the Rays - but something like a 20% chance. Injuries, luck and many other things affect the final standings. Given that my guess would be the Jays finishing around 80 wins, and the Rays at around 85-86 wins - not that much has to happen to have the Jays ahead of the Rays.

That said, anyone that would be willing to take the Jays at even money - please let me know.

[gRYFYN1]

I agree with Kenny on the fact that the Rays are mostly likely a 87-90 win team and an injury or two to he starters than can fall below the Jays who are closer to a .500 team.

But Rob Stone is a ***** - I mean he makes Skip Bayless look like the smart one - to Call the Rays a fraud is a joke. Seeing how if they played on the AL Central or West they'd be the best team in either division.

[michaelg123789]

Yeah

[HoustonGM]

Yeah, go ahead and call me nuts too.

The Rays won't finish better than third.

Perfectly okay to predict that.

But no, not last. The Orioles have a lock on last.

(Must be something about the Baltimore-Washington area, both teams have virtual locks on last place. Although the Nats might beat the Marlins. Maybe.)

I think the Orioles have a legitimate chance at 4th place. The Jays rotation is nearly as bad as the Orioles. The only real difference is that the Jays have Roy Halladay. That's a big difference, yes...but....the Jays offense is worse than Baltimore's, and Baltimore's defense has a chance to make some bad pitchers look decent.

Mets at 80? Really? I have them as the NL Champions.

So many things would have to go wrong for the Mets to win just 80 games.

I guess I wasn't clear enough.

I think third is their ceiling. I don't think it's all that unrealistic to assume the Blue Jays might finish ahead of them. I certainly think it's more than a 0.7% chance. If I had to pick who would finish third, I'd pick the Rays, but I wouldn't be shocked at the end of the year if the standings were Sox/Yanks, Jays, Rays, O's. Wouldn't be shocked at all.

I don't see how you can come to this conclusion. They're the same team last year that won 97 games (Pythagorean of 92 wins), except better.

[200tang]

Not a chance... Ive got the marlins wining 85-87 games... mets around 80 ( I cant see their back end of the pitching holding up) Braves at about 90 and th epholies around 88... its gonna be a GREAT year in the NL East

Why would you have the Mets at 80? I'm guessing because you're anticipating age to hit everyone and Jose Reyes and David Wright to have tough years, but that doesn't seem like a logical prediction.

And as for the Marlins at 85-87 wins , see here : http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...eryone-thinks/

Don’t buy into the hype of the Marlins as a young team that could surprise. The only people who will be surprised by the Marlins this year are those that expect them to contend.

I would agree with that too, Jorge Cantu at first base? He had a good year last year, but he won't repeat. A lot of their pitching is gone and odds are they won't be able to replace those innings.

I'd say that it is unlikely that the Jays finish ahead of the Rays - but something like a 20% chance. Injuries, luck and many other things affect the final standings. Given that my guess would be the Jays finishing around 80 wins, and the Rays at around 85-86 wins - not that much has to happen to have the Jays ahead of the Rays.

That said, anyone that would be willing to take the Jays at even money - please let me know.

Even with injuries they've got enough depth to keep on rolling. An injury to Holliday is HUGE to the Jays and I can't think of anyone on Tampa's roster that would be a HUGE blow to them.

[HoustonGM]

I think the Marlins pitching staff has the most upside of the NL East teams, but they also have the most risk because they're all young guys without much of an established record of performance.