2009 MLB Predictions

[koolzach1]

Upton hasn't reached his peak, and his peak is far above where he was last year. Longoria hasn't reached his peak. Garza hasn't reached his peak. David Price hasn't reached his peak. This is a team full of young talent that hasn't reached it's peak, and that young talent's peak is far above where they are now. Some players won't sustain their production, but it will be balanced by the increases elsewhere.

Lol, thanks for agreeing with me?

I was just saying that Upton hasn't reached his peak and neither has Longoria. I don't know about Garza, we'll see if he gets better or regresses. David Price hasn't reached his peak, but he may not be all that great either... he's a rook. That bullpen will not even be close to as successful as last season. BTW, I believe that Kazmir, Shields, and Sonnanstine have all reached their peak.

[HoustonGM]

Lol, thanks for agreeing with me?

I was just saying that Upton hasn't reached his peak and neither has Longoria. I don't know about Garza, we'll see if he gets better or regresses. David Price hasn't reached his peak, but he may not be all that great either... he's a rook. That bullpen will not even be close to as successful as last season. BTW, I believe that Kazmir, Shields, and Sonnanstine have all reached their peak.

Even if "most" of them has reached its peak (which isn't true, because they have a huge pipeline of young talent not even in the majors yet, a good portion which is close to the majors, which you CANNOT discount), it doesn't matter, because that peak is very good.

[koolzach1]

The Yankees have also had the best offense over that time. But, notice, they haven't had much playoff success, where defense takes on added importance. There was a study in the Hardball Times annual this year, which I don't have with me right now, that showed that something like 8 of the last 10 World Series teams were near the top of the league in defense.

Defense CAN make or break a team, though, and it is most certainly not "overrated". The Rays are evidence of that. Had the Yankees defense not been terrible, they'd have been walloping the league left and right.

The Yankees haven't had a ton of success in the playoffs because of their terrible/old pitching... it wasn't as much the defense as it was that.

Defense is important, yes, but again, I don't believe that it will neccessarily make or break a team... especially a team that has a bunch of fireballers that don't rely on the defense as much as most pitchers.

[koolzach1]

Even if "most" of them has reached its peak (which isn't true, because they have a huge pipeline of young talent not even in the majors yet, a good portion which is close to the majors, which you CANNOT discount), it doesn't matter, because that peak is very good.

I know they have a lot of young talent waiting to break in. They also have a lot of proven/tested talent. Longoria should be a stud... Upton, 'eh? He should be, but we'll see... Pena declined last year from his previous season and who's to say that he doesn't decline even further to where he isn't even much of an asset. Navarro had a career year, as did Bartlett, and the whole bullpen basically. Plus, I honestly don't believe that Burrell will be all that great outside of that homerun box in Philly. Don't get me, wrong, that young rotation looks awesome and on par with what the Yanks/Sox are throwing out there, but we'll see... I just don't believe that the Rays will be amazing next season.

[HoustonGM]

The Yankees haven't had a ton of success in the playoffs because of their terrible/old pitching... it wasn't as much the defense as it was that.

Part of the "terrible" pitching was the terrible defense. A good defense can make terrible pitchers look good.

Defense is important, yes, but again, I don't believe that it will neccessarily make or break a team... especially a team that has a bunch of fireballers that don't rely on the defense as much as most pitchers.

The latter half of this is true. A team with a bunch of strikeout pitchers relies on his defense much less. However, again, defense CAN make or break a team. The Rays, with one of the worst defenses in recent times, were terrible in 2007. The next year, with a historic defensive turnaround and little change elsewhere, they were in the World Series. Defense broke them in 2007, and made them in 2008.

[koolzach1]

Part of the "terrible" pitching was the terrible defense. A good defense can make terrible pitchers look good.


The latter half of this is true. A team with a bunch of strikeout pitchers relies on his defense much less. However, again, defense CAN make or break a team. The Rays, with one of the worst defenses in recent times, were terrible in 2007. The next year, with a historic defensive turnaround and little change elsewhere, they were in the World Series. Defense broke them in 2007, and made them in 2008.

I'd say that Longoria, Navarro, the worst very good bullpen ever, and the Garza trade is what made them awesome last season... Plus, Bartlett was a major upgrade from what they did have... Sure, the defense was vastly improved, but so was so many other areas.

Also, I don't believe at all that the terrible defense made the pitching terrible... I'd say that old 40 year old, injured/overrated pitchers hurt us even more... Mussina has always relied on the D a decent amount, he has had very good success... It's because he was one of only a few pitchers that we had that were actually good.

[HoustonGM]

I know they have a lot of young talent waiting to break in. They also have a lot of proven/tested talent. Longoria should be a stud... Upton, 'eh? He should be, but we'll see... Pena declined last year from his previous season and who's to say that he doesn't decline even further to where he isn't even much of an asset. Navarro had a career year, as did Bartlett, and the whole bullpen basically. Plus, I honestly don't believe that Burrell will be all that great outside of that homerun box in Philly. Don't get me, wrong, that young rotation looks awesome and on par with what the Yanks/Sox are throwing out there, but we'll see... I just don't believe that the Rays will be amazing next season.

All this doubting that you're doing can be applied to the Yankees, and the Red Sox, etc.

Who's to say that Robinson Cano reached his peak already and is declining? Who's to say that A.J. Burnett won't get injured and miss time like he did every other non-contract year of his career? Who's to say that Sabathia's body will continue to hold up despite high workloads? Who's to say that Jorge Posada will even play 100 games? Who's to say that Derek Jeter won't continue declining? Who's to say that the Yankees won't have an offensive blackhole in center field?

I think you're trying to find places to doubt the Rays because you're hesitant to believe that yes, they really are a great team.

[HoustonGM]

I'd say that Longoria, Navarro, the worst very good bullpen ever, and the Garza trade is what made them awesome last season... Plus, Bartlett was a major upgrade from what they did have... Sure, the defense was vastly improved, but so was so many other areas.

Bartlett was a major DEFENSIVE upgrade. He was a downgrade offensively. Again, their offense was NOT any different. They went from 782 runs to 774 runs. Their defense went from LAST to FIRST, and with that, their runs allowed from 944 to 671. Yes, their pitching was better, but that does not explain a near 300 run drop in runs allowed. Their defense going from worst to best does.

Also, I don't believe at all that the terrible defense made the pitching terrible... I'd say that old 40 year old, injured/overrated pitchers hurt us even more... Mussina has always relied on the D a decent amount, he has had very good success... It's because he was one of only a few pitchers that we had that were actually good.

It didn't make the pitching terrible. It did make them worse than they were. I don't know how you can even deny that. What does defense do, if not affect run prevention? A worse defense = more runs allowed, which is "worse pitching."

[koolzach1]

All this doubting that you're doing can be applied to the Yankees, and the Red Sox, etc.

Who's to say that Robinson Cano reached his peak already and is declining? Who's to say that A.J. Burnett won't get injured and miss time like he did every other non-contract year of his career? Who's to say that Sabathia's body will continue to hold up despite high workloads? Who's to say that Jorge Posada will even play 100 games? Who's to say that Derek Jeter won't continue declining? Who's to say that the Yankees won't have an offensive blackhole in center field?

I think you're trying to find places to doubt the Rays because you're hesitant to believe that yes, they really are a great team.

Actually, I think that I have seen enough from the Yankees and Red Sox in recent years to know that they are elite teams. Jeter has declined, but not a whole bunch... he is still a top SS. If you're going to say that maybe Cano has reached his peak and is already declining, then I will turn around and say that maybe Upton has reached his peak and is declining. Sabathia has never had an injury as far as I know, and his workloads will definitely be lower this season than the past couple of years. Your concern is definitely valid on Posada, as he may not be healthy and even play 50 games... he is a definite unknown for now. The Yankees CF position will very likely be their weakest... AJ Burnett could very well get hurt and only make 20-25 starts... that's definitely a valid concern, as well.

[HoustonGM]

Actually, I think that I have seen enough from the Yankees and Red Sox in recent years to know that they are elite teams. Jeter has declined, but not a whole bunch... he is still a top SS. If you're going to say that maybe Cano has reached his peak and is already declining, then I will turn around and say that maybe Upton has reached his peak and is declining. Sabathia has never had an injury as far as I know, and his workloads will definitely be lower this season than the past couple of years. Your concern is definitely valid on Posada, as he may not be healthy and even play 50 games... he is a definite unknown for now. The Yankees CF position will very likely be their weakest... AJ Burnett could very well get hurt and only make 20-25 starts... that's definitely a valid concern, as well.

Just to be clear, I don't actually "believe" many of those things I said. I'm just showing that there are many places that people can find things to doubt on the Yankees. The only reason you're trying to find things to doubt about the Rays is because they don't have a track record of success, and I don't think that's fair, because this is NOT CLOSE to the 1998-2007 version of the team, in any aspect. Like I said before, you're hesitant to believe that the Rays are actually an elite team, but, well, face it, they are, and they're here to stay for a long time.

[koolzach1]

Bartlett was a major DEFENSIVE upgrade. He was a downgrade offensively. Again, their offense was NOT any different. They went from 782 runs to 774 runs. Their defense went from LAST to FIRST, and with that, their runs allowed from 944 to 671. Yes, their pitching was better, but that does not explain a near 300 run drop in runs allowed. Their defense going from worst to best does.


It didn't make the pitching terrible. It did make them worse than they were. I don't know how you can even deny that. What does defense do, if not affect run prevention? A worse defense = more runs allowed, which is "worse pitching."

Ok, so the Rays went from last to first in defense... That probably had the most to due with their historic turn around, but they also made some very wise decisions (Garza trade, who they picked for the bullpen, Longoria busting out, Navarro busting out, etc...) I understand that their runs scored really didn't change a whole lot, but you still cannot say that their offense didn't improve as a whole. Pena was their offense in 2007... in 2008 they had a few different guys step up.

Ya, sure the defense did make the already terrible starting pitcher look even worse... point is, the pitching was still terrible and old.

[koolzach1]

Just to be clear, I don't actually "believe" many of those things I said. I'm just showing that there are many places that people can find things to doubt on the Yankees. The only reason you're trying to find things to doubt about the Rays is because they don't have a track record of success, and I don't think that's fair, because this is NOT CLOSE to the 1998-2007 version of the team, in any aspect. Like I said before, you're hesitant to believe that the Rays are actually an elite team, but, well, face it, they are, and they're here to stay for a long time.

Oh, I know that you don't actually believe those things... I was just countering. Yes, the only reason I don't completely trust the Rays to be an elite team this year is because they don't have a track record (almost none of the players)... Maybe it's not fair, but the reason I believe that Yanks and Sox will be in 1st and 2nd (no particular order), is because of their proven veterans.

[HoustonGM]

Ok, so the Rays went from last to first in defense... That probably had the most to due with their historic turn around, but they also made some very wise decisions (Garza trade, who they picked for the bullpen, Longoria busting out, Navarro busting out, etc...) I understand that their runs scored really didn't change a whole lot, but you still cannot say that their offense didn't improve as a whole. Pena was their offense in 2007... in 2008 they had a few different guys step up.

Their overall offense didn't improve. They went from a league-average 8th place offense to a league-average 9th place offense. Their OPS+ went from a 103 to 99. They went from .268/.336/.433 to .260/.340/.422. The shape was different, but overall, it was the same. Any way you want to slice it, their offense was equivalent in 2008 to 2007.

[HoustonGM]

Oh, I know that you don't actually believe those things... I was just countering. Yes, the only reason I don't completely trust the Rays to be an elite team this year is because they don't have a track record (almost none of the players)... Maybe it's not fair, but the reason I believe that Yanks and Sox will be in 1st and 2nd (no particular order), is because of their proven veterans.

Want to know what's overrated? "Proven veterans."

[koolzach1]

Their overall offense didn't improve. They went from a league-average 8th place offense to a league-average 9th place offense. Their OPS+ went from a 103 to 99. They went from .268/.336/.433 to .260/.340/.422. The shape was different, but overall, it was the same. Any way you want to slice it, their offense was equivalent in 2008 to 2007.

What I am saying about the offense is that they didn't just have 1 guy producing on offense... they had multiple this year. Defense is probably the main reason for their amazing turnaround, but I also tend to believe that the pitching/all around attack on offense/and bullpen had a lot to do with it. I also believe that the bullpen had the 2nd most to do with their turnaround.

Defense is overrated, though... I mean, maybe not in the case of the 2008 Tampa Rays, as they went from worst to first, but when it comes to the Yankees, having a very average, maybe slightly below average (due to Jeter and Posada - 2 crucial positions to have good defense at), I don't think defense is the main concern... staying healthy is.