The Negotiator App, version 2

[Mizerak]

Greetings! I know some people have good ideas about ways to modify the Negotiator app, and I want to make the discussion separate from the original app that uses OFG's logic.

I apologize that some of you may need to copy your ideas to this thread from the other one, but this may make it easier to discuss and figure out what the second version of the negotiator should do.

I had an idea that there could be a "settings" file that the app could read from...that way the basics of the app would be the same for everyone, but the effects of the player's age and rating and greed and ambition could be configurable by the user. Even the current month could make a difference. Anything you can think of, as long as the user is willing to enter the information on the screen.

Thoughts? Feedback? Let it roll... :-)

EDIT: After much discussion, version 2 of the Negotiator is now released! I have attached the app and the ini file to this post in a zip. I will do my best to release instructions soon so that people will know what they are doing when they choose to change the settings in the ini file.

MANY thanks to filihok for helping with the ideas and testing out the beta and giving feedback.

If you view the log file after attempting a negotiation, it will show the calcs that were used to arrive at the percentage chance that was used for the negotiation. That should help people get some understanding of the process.

EDIT: Version 2.01 released - fixes a display issue with Vista and the Happiness entry box.

EDIT: Version 2.1 released
Fixes a bug with calcs when happiness is the only factor
Allows edits of player information to be saved to player file when negotiation is attempted, so that when attributes change the changes will be saved for the next negotiation.

EDIT: Version 2.2 released
Added customization for a "greed raise", where a player that would not normally sign agrees to sign IF a premium is added to his salary. The percent boost to the chances and the percent raise to the salary are governed by new sections in the ini file.
Added logic to restrict mid-season Free Agent signings to one-year contracts.

EDIT: Version 2.21 released
Fixed hole in logic where the current year was not being added to the contract request if happiness was the only factor and the negotiation was mid-season.

EDIT: Version 2.22 released
Fixed bug whereby an age modifier could make the min and max years less than 1, so that a successful negotiation could be for 0 years. Now all successful negotiation attempts will have a contract of at least one year.

[gosensgo101]

You mean Negotiator?

[RedsoxRockies]

Navigator? Will it be like a Mogul GPS that speaks in Old Fat Guy's and Clay Dreslough's voices? I HAVE WANTED ONE ALL MY LIFE!!!

[filihok]

Ok, this is what I’m thinking. Let me know if I’m thinking way too much.

Break the players down into categories like HGM described

AAAA Types
Bench Players
Average Starters
All-Stars
Super Stars

Each group should be increasingly hard to sign, as these crude graphs show.

http://i496.photobucket.com/albums/r...FreeAgents.jpg

EDIT: Graphs should say Chance to NEGOTIATE on the vertical axis

OVR<75 should never be harder to sign than 50%.
OVR>95 players should be impossible to sign in certain situations, and likely to sign in other situations, but overall harder to sign than <75 players.
Players in between those two will have chances in between those two.

We do it like this:
Taking AAAA Types (OVR < 75) as an example
These kinds of players should be pretty easy to sign. So we start off with a base of maybe 50%.
With each favorable factor we add to that percentage.
If the player has 1 friend on the team we add 10%
If the player has 2 friends we add another 5% for 15%
If 3 friends we add 3% for 18%
(law of diminishing returns)

Do similar with his ‘Fit to Team’
If the fit is a C or C+ then no addition.
If the fit is a B-,B, or B+ then add 5,10,15%
If the fit is a A-,A, or A+ then add 20,25,30%
If the fit is C- subtract 10%
If the fit is a D subtract 20%
If the fit is an F subtract 30%

With the subtractions though, if it is a <75 player his chance of signing should never go below 50%. He’s just happy to get a chance.
We can set up other floors for other levels of players

Ambition
Not real sure how to work this without making it incredibly (too late for that) complex.
Ideally, a 1 – 0 record wouldn’t have the same effect as a 50-30 record or a world series win last year.
But we make a similar calculation depending on how his Ambition matches your teams’ record or outlook for the season.

I thought about making a “Would player be a starter? Bench? Minor league” question and maybe even tying that into ambition…but, that makes my head hurt.

Greed
This will mostly factor in with the number of negotiations you are allowed.
Players with high greed ratings you can negotiate with less. This gives you less chance to bring his price down. Extremely ungreedy players, you can negotiate with more, to get a better deal.

The length of the contract should be determined by the type of player, as HGM’s post stated. We can make some exceptions for age and …

Negotiations made during the season
Should be different than those made in the winter.
If a player, of any talent level, is available during the season he should have a high chance of being signed and for a short contract. All contracts, I think, should be one year.

Also the chance to sign a player, during the season, shouldn’t be below 50%, much like the below 75 players from above.

[Mizerak]

You mean Negotiator?

Holy cow. I knew I was tired, but man...I have edited the first post.

[Dee Dreslough]

I traveled back in time and fixed the post title! And I bought IBM stock while I was there.

*checks value*
Dang. I didn't travel far enough back.

-Dee

[Mizerak]

Dee: Many thanks for that. I'll try to be more awake, or at least careful, in the future. :-)

filihok: Thank you for bringing over your ideas to the new thread.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

mizeark any chance u can make something that u could output 40-man roster and option and rule 5 draft? it be cool sry dont know where to put this for u.
Mizerak, you and i could go into business together and work for Clay.i will come up with the id eas like 40 man roster and Rule 5 draft and you will be in charge of making them. i friends with clay and ask him to help u get hired too cuz clay know me but not u that much. we would be a great team. also we could split 50/50 for money

lol....

[Mizerak]

mizeark any chance u can make something that u could output 40-man roster and option and rule 5 draft? it be cool sry dont know where to put this for u.

Yamiviet, thank you for the suggestions. You should put suggestions like this into the "Ideas for another app" thread. This thread is for the Negotiator app discussions only.

[RedsoxRockies]

mizeark any chance u can make something that u could output 40-man roster and option and rule 5 draft? it be cool sry dont know where to put this for u.
Mizerak, you and i could go into business together and work for Clay.i will come up with the id eas like 40 man roster and Rule 5 draft and you will be in charge of making them. i friends with clay and ask him to help u get hired too cuz clay know me but not u that much. we would be a great team. also we could split 50/50 for money

i go into busynes with you and work for clay, cuz i know clay too not really and we tke over sports mogul and clay become ur slave and we split the money 55-45

[filihok]

Ok, I've refined my proposal from here a little bit. While I love the Box Score Parser, especially the Home/Road splits, THIS is the app I am most excited about. The free agent system in Mogul is one of its biggest downfalls, IMO.

First we have to consider what factors are important from the player's prospective when signing a contract. Luckily, Clay blessed us with 9 player personality traits. I think that 4 of them are useful in determining a player's interest in signing a contract with a given team. They are:

Ambition: A player's "internal desire to be with a contender"
Camradery: "friendliness...inside the clubhouse"
Community: "The weight a player puts on his home, family and community"
Greed: Greedy players put "more value on money than other factors in negotiations"

The level (+5 vs +30 for example) will determine how much weight the player puts on each factor.

The users team will have factors that relate to these personality points and increase (or decrease) the chance of the player negotiating with the team

Ambition: The team's win-loss record, playoff appearances in the last 5 years, the team's overall rating for examples.
For players with a positive ambition: A winning record, playoff appearances or high overall rating would increase the chances of the player negotiating while a losing record, etc would decrease the chances.
For players with a negative ambition: I don't know what a negative ambition means. I don't think we should have players that prefer to lose. Perhaps it is best that players with negative ambition ratings are not influenced at all by these factors.

Camradery: This is where friends would come in.
For players with positive comradery ratings: Having a friend or friends on the team would increase the chances. Not having friends would decrease.
For players with negative comradery ratings: Again, there would be no addition or subtraction.
Having 1 friend would add 50% (of the possible comradery increase) to the players signability
Having 2 friends would add another 30% = 80%
Having 3 friends would add another 20% = 100%

Community: A bit of a tough one. I think this is where Happiness and Team Fit should come in. As well as, possibly, birth city or college played at.
For players with positive community ratings: An above average rating on Fit to Team or Happiness would increase the chance of negotiating as well as being born or playing in college near to the team's city. However, having a below average Fit to Team of Happiness rating or not being born or going to college near the team's city would decrease the chance of negotiating.
For players with negative community ratings: Again, no addition or subtraction.
Fit to Team = F 100% subtraction
Fit to Team = D-, D, D+ 80, 60, 40 subtraction
Fit to Team = C-, C, C+ 20 subtraction, 0 addition/subtraction, 14 addition
Fit to Team = B-, B, B+ 28, 42, 56 addition
Fit to Team = A-, A, A+ 70, 84, 100 addition

Greed: I think greed should mostly factor into the number of offers the team can submit to the player. We all know that you can bring a player's demand down by repeatedly clicking the offer button until he caves in.
For players with positive greed ratings: less offers can be submitted giving the team less chance to bring down the offer.
For players with high greed ratings: more offers can be submitted giving the team more chance to bring down the offer.

*If anyone has any ideas on how to deal with negative numbers for personality factors...I'm glad to hear them.



I think we should start with a baseline level of a player's willingness to sign a contract dependent upon a player's skill level as HGM referred to. There should be 5 levels as follows:

Superstars OVR>95
Stars OVR>90
Solid Players OVR>85
Good Bench Players OVR>70
Below Average Players OVR<75
*feel free to quibble with these numbers

So, first we assign a baseline signing value for each type of player. For example a Below Average Player might have a baseline of 50%. These players are easily replaceable and are as likely to be sitting at home without a job as they are to be gainfully employed. They'll take what they can get.

Suppose this player has the following Personality Ratings:
Ambition +5
Camradery +35
Community +5
Greed +20

And 1 friend on the team
And a Fit to Team of a C+
And suppose our team is really bad, no chance of making the playoffs.

We'd figure out his propensity to negotiate something like this:
His baseline is 50%
The sum of his personality factors is 40 (5+35+0)**we won't include greed because it has no positive or negative effect on chance to negotiate. So:
Ambition counts for 5/45 (11%) of his remaining signability. We suck so we get an 11% DECREASE in our ability to sign the player.
Camradery is 35/45 (78%) of his remaining signability. He has one friend which means we get 50% of the 78% ambition bonus. For a total of a 39% increase.
Community is 5/60 (11%) of his remaining signability. A C+ is 14% and 14% of 11% is a 2% increase in signability.

Our total chance at signing is:
(50% baseline) - (11% for ambition) + (39% for Camradery) +(2% for Community) = 80%

Greed is 20 (out of a possible 50) I believe. You'd only get to submit 1 or 2 offers to this player.

We'd use HGM's contract ranges to set the length of the contract.


For players already on your team I think that Happiness should be the biggest factor in re-signing. The happiness rating already figures in Fit to Team, Ambition, Camradery and Community. If a player is happy he is likely to re-sign. Unhappy is unlikely to re-sign. Happier is better. And less happy is worse. We could scale it like Fit to Team

Below 40 = 100 subtraction
40 - 45 = 50 subtraction
45 - 50 = 0 addition
50 - 55 = 20 addition
55 - 60 = 40 addition
60 - 65 = 60 addition
65 - 70 = 80 addition
70 - 100 = 100 addition
*this scale might be a bit low
and just use the same base percentages.

So, we have a superstar (OVR>95) whose happiness = 65
A superstar would have a very low base percentage. Maybe 10%
So, 90% of his signability is dependent on team/personality factors. In this case, only happiness.
His happiness is 65 which is 80%
80% of 90% is 72%
Add the 72% to 10% and we have an 82% chance of negotiating with the player.

Suppose our superstar is unhappy. Happiness = 40
40 is a 50% subtraction
In this case we would make the subtraction from the base.
50% of 10% is 5%. Subtract 5% from 10% and we have a 5% chance to re-sign the player. Keep your stars happy is the lesson.


Well, that's my new and improved suggestion for the Negotiator II. If I get a chance I might make up a spread sheet and run through a bunch of players and see what happens. Though I'm out of town tomorrow afternoon and things might be hectic the next couple of weeks after that.

The numbers were pretty much off the top of my head, so if anyone disagrees, that's cool. The logic was also off the top of my head, so feel free to disagree with that as well.

Hopefully, I'm not the only one excited for the possibility of this app and some of you will chime in with some thought and suggestions.

[Mizerak]

Ok, I've refined my proposal from here a little bit. While I love the Box Score Parser, especially the Home/Road splits, THIS is the app I am most excited about.

Wow...considering your reaction to the BSP, this is a high level of excitement

Well, that's my new and improved suggestion for the Negotiator II. If I get a chance I might make up a spread sheet and run through a bunch of players and see what happens. Though I'm out of town tomorrow afternoon and things might be hectic the next couple of weeks after that.

I really like these ideas. I think, as we refine them, that it may be best to have some sort of settings file that the user can modify, that could look something like:

[BASE]
95: 10
90: 15
85: 25
80: 35
75: 45
70: 50
60: 80

[FRIENDS]
1: 50
2: 80
3: 100

Similar sections could be set up for all of the factors, and then the app would read from the settings file and the player attributes entered on the screen and "roll the dice". We would have to narrow down the effects of the attributes a bit further, but this would allow people to customize as they like, to some extent.

[filihok]

Wow...considering your reaction to the BSP, this is a high level of excitement

I just can't hide it

I really like these ideas. I think, as we refine them, that it may be best to have some sort of settings file that the user can modify, that could look something like:

[BASE]
95: 10
90: 15
85: 25
80: 35
75: 45
70: 50
60: 80

[FRIENDS]
1: 50
2: 80
3: 100

Similar sections could be set up for all of the factors, and then the app would read from the settings file and the player attributes entered on the screen and "roll the dice". We would have to narrow down the effects of the attributes a bit further, but this would allow people to customize as they like, to some extent.

That makes sense to me

EDIT: I made a slight change in the previous post.

I removed the addition of the greed rating from the sum of personality factors since greed doesn't figure into the chance to negotiate.

I also changed the example for the unhappy superstar. I though it was better to subtract the percentage of the base than of 100-base. To still give the team some chance. Which was what I originally intended, but F'd up when I posted

I'd like to hear anyone's ideas for how to include Birth City and college into the Community calculation.

[Mizerak]

OK, filihok, your mission, if and when you choose to accept it, is to come up with a settings file that incorporates your vision. It does not have to be in the format that I just suggested, but it has to allow the user to clearly define the settings and it has to be in a structured format that a script could parse.

[filihok]

Ok...mission accepted. Hopefully, this is acceptable.

I made a few changes in the logic. I think the changes should be clear from the chart so I won't explain them.

Still need help figuring out the Ambition part

[BASE]
95 : 10
90 : 15
85 : 20
80 : 30
75 : 50
65 : 70

[**AMBITION**]
[RECORD]
[PLAYOFFS]
[OVERALL]


[**COMRADERY**]
[FRIENDS]
1 : 15
2 : 25
3 : 30
[FIT TO TEAM]
F : -100
D- : -80
D : -60
D+ : -40
C- : -20
C : 0
C+ : 10
B- : 20
B : 30
B+ : 40
A- : 50
A : 60
A+ : 70

[**COMMUNITY**]
[BIRTH CITY OR COLLEGE]
Yes : 100
No : 0

[**RE-SIGN**]
[HAPPINESS]
70 : 100
65 : 80
60 : 60
55 : 40
50 : 20
45 : 0
40 : -50
0 : -100

[**NEGOTIATIONS**]
[GREED]
30 : 1
20 : 2
0 : 3
-20 : 4
-30: 5
-50 : 6

[YEARS]
95 : 4,7
90 : 3,6
85 : 3,5
80 : 1,3
65 : 1,2