My AL East Preview

[BrewCrewFan255]

Here we are, another year where the Royals think they can win the division. Another year, when every team has the chance to win. Yes, folks, baseball is finally back. Spring Training is finally getting under way, and we are just under 30 days until the first regular season game. Thank the lord. I will do one division per day. AL East will be first.

AL East Predictions

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox will contain both the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees to finish in first. Even though the Yanks got both Texiera, CC and Burnett, I love the depth of the Red Sox bullpen. The Red Sox had really solid moves this off-season with the addition of Saito and Smoltz. Smoltz should have a decent year, and the Red Sox will probably use him as the #4-5 starter. The addition of Saito, is a low-risk, high reward. Coming off a terrible year plaged with injuries, (although he still ended up with a 1.19 WHIP) Saito should rebound to where he was in 2007 when he had a 1.40 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. Roco Baldeli is another interesting story for the Red Sox, Baldeli could be a rebound type of guy for them, and could use them as a really good bench player, or even a spot starter. They also resigned C Jason Varitek which is another big piece to the Red Sox, mainly not for his bat, but he knows the pitching staff, so the pitchers are more comfortable with him. More additions to the Red Sox include SP Brad Penny, which could be another good starter, see Smoltz. Ramon Ramirez is going to be a stud someday, and the Red Sox are lucky to get him also.

Players to watch: Boston's young pitchers

Watch out for the Red Sox young pitchers this upcoming season. Manny Declarmen, Micheal Bowden, Clay Bucholz all could be good pitchers for the Red Sox, and their bullpen would be even more dangerous.

So additions to the Red Sox who could be solid contributors:

Roco Baldeli, John Smoltz, Ramon Rameriz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito.

Record: 99-63

2. Tampa Bay Rays
Coming off one of the best records in Rays history, the 08-09 Rays have some key players. Adding OF Pat Burrell to the already good lineup is just going to make them better. Pat Burrell is a power threat in any lineup, and should be the Rays anchor in the #4 spot for them. Gabe Kapler, another addition to the Rays OF, will be another good bench player. And finally, Jason Israghusen another addition, should be a good reliever. I think the Rays will beat the Yankees because of the better overall depth, and their rotation is more younger, and a bit better.

James Shields, went 14-8, with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, which is really good, expect the same out of him this year.

Scott Kazmir, went 12-8, with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Players to watch: Can Pat Burrell be the same player the Rays signed? Can the players stay healthy, and finally can Kazmir and Shields be the same pitchers they were last year? If the answer is yes, then the Rays will finish 2nd.

Record: 92-70

3. New York Yankees

Man, the Yankees are going to be a tough team to write about. But I think the Yankees will finish 3rd. Yes, you know why? The injuries are already going to get to them. AJ Burnett rarley stays healthy, CC Sabathia pitched how many innings last year? He will eventually fall of the table, and can the team chemistry remain the same after what A-Rod went through this off-season.

First off, I loved the CC Sabathia signing for the Yankees. Even though I wanted the Brewers to re-sign him (Yes, I'm a Brewers fan) the Yankees had one hell of a signing here. The guy is a horse, but truth is, he pitched a TON of innings last year, and even went 4-5 starts in a row on 3 days rest. Sabathia will hate the Yankees when he has a bad game, and the Bronx fans are booing him off the field.

AJ Burnett signing was also a "good" one considering it doesn't matter how much the Yankees spend, and they have all the money in the world. If Burnett can remain healthy and still get somewhere between a 3.5 and 4.0 ERA, with a 1.25 WHIP or lower, then maybe the Yankees have a chance. I don't see that happening.

Mark Teixera signing was easily the best one the Yankees made. Teixera is a stud on all levels. Last year he hit .308, 33, 121 in an Angels lineup, where it's not the best. The defense that he brings is another key thing for the Yankees.

Players to watch: Melkey Cabera and Robinson Cano. In order for the Yankees to be successful, these players, along with the newly accquired players, need to live up to their expectations. CF and 2B are probably the weakest spots that the Yankees have, and if Cano can live up to his 06 numbers where he hit .342, then obviously the Yankees are in a better spot. Right now though, I don't see the chemistry getting along, and I don't see CC being a star like he was in Milwaukee and Cleveland, so I have the Yankees 3rd.

Record: 90-72

4. Baltimore Orioles

The O's have the talent to be good someday. Right now though, the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Rays are all better talent wise. The Orioles and Jays will fight for 4th and 5th place respectivley, but I still can't see the O's falling to 5th with the talent they do have. Led by Markakis, the Orioles will end up over .500, and they will get the fans excited again in Baltimore.

Players to watch: Ty Wigginton 3B

Can Wigginton be a solid contributor to the O's? IF so, maybe the Orioles can end up with 84-85 wins.

Record: 83-79

5. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays will end up 5th again, and fans in Canada will get impatient with the team. Without Burnett, the Jays do not have a good starting rotation, except for Halladay, although they do have some young pitching in Marcum and McGowan, I don't think they are ready to have an break-out season, which is why I think the Jays will end up 5th.

Players to watch: Young SP

Their season will highly depend on their young SP in both Marcum and McGowan. If those two can remain solid, and Halladay have another Cy-Young type year, then the Jays can make some noise. If not, well then the Jays will end up in the celler again.

Record: 75-87



Well, that wraps up the AL East, the AL Central will either be later tonight, or tommorow. Thanks for reading and all comments are appreciated.

[RedsoxRockies]

I do not see the O's doing so well, Nor any team reaching 99 wins in the East.

[koolzach1]

Good write up, and thanks for taking your time to post a good/solid writeup, as I enjoyed it (even though you have my Yanks down as 3rd).

I think the standings will be something more along the lines of:

1. Yankees (95-67)
2. Red Sox (93-69)
3. Rays (90-72)
4. Blue Jays (82-80)
5. Orioles (75-87)

Yes, I am a Yankees fan, but I really am not using any bias here at all... Trust me... I wanted to mark the Yankees down for 98 wins, but I am trying to be a little conservative.

The team that stays the healthiest will win the division, IMO. Everyone talks about how Burnett can't stay healthy, but the Red Sox #1 (Josh Beckett) has a 4.10 ERA and 90 starts over the past 3 years, while Burnett has a 3.93 ERA and 81 starts over the past 3 years. I am in no way saying Burnett is better than Beckett, but maybe Burnett isn't as bad or as much of an injury risk as people say he is. Plus, everyone including him is saying that he has learned how to stay healthier and that he feels as good as he ever as... Though, definitely take that with a grain of salt, as players always say that they feel as good as they ever have or better than ever, etc...

We need to stop babying players so much... Yeah, Sabathia pitched a lot of innings last year (around 250 I believe), but 10 or 15 years ago, this was the norm. It has just been recent that people get scared or say that a guys arm is gonna fall off because he pitches 240+ innings, or pitches on 3 days rest a few times. The man is a horse... I don't believe he will be breaking down anytime soon... In fact, he'll just get better and stronger, IMO... because here in NY for the Yankees, he's probably only gonna pitch 210-220 regular season innings, if that, and then the post season.

People also seem to forget that the Yanks bullpen was ranked in the top 10 last season in bullpen ERA... and that is with SP's that got lucky if they lasted 5 innings. (Ponson, Rasner, Kennedy, Hughes, etc...). So, if anything, the reduced stress on the bullpen should in fact theoretically make it stronger.

The Yankees have a ton of if's, though... You really gotta wonder if the bullpen was a 1 hit wonder, and if A-Rod will be healthy, if Posada can catch/and be healthy, if Matsui will be healthy, if Cano will bounce back, and if Gardner/Melky can be effective. The Yanks have the least amount of if's out of the big 3 in the AL East, though, so that's why I gotta put em 1st.

Now on to the Red Sox...

The Red Sox have always loved their depth, that's for sure... This season they might be the deepest team in the majors, and probably are. They have a LOT of if's though. Will Smoltz be healthy? Will Saito be healthy? Will Ramirez translate from pitching with no pressure in KC to very intense/high pressure in Boston? Will Lowell be healthy? Will Papi regain his old form, or even a glimpse of it? Will Ellsbury get better? Will Lowrie or Lugo step up and at least be average? Will Drew be healthy? Will Varitek be a black hole in the lineup again? Will Beckett be healthy? Will Lester continue his success? Is Bowden ready? Will Penny be healthy or even translate into the AL East? Will Buchholz finally be ready? Will Dice-K continue to dominate even though he pitches 6 innings a game and walks 5? Will Youk continue to be one of the best 1B in game on offense? Loads and loads of questions...

I would say that the Red Sox have more questions than any team in baseball... and if their if's work out for them, they could be the best team in baseball, no doubt. They also have a lot of people who you know will be effective and healthy like Drew, Pedroia, Youk, Paps, Oki, etc...

I don't have much to say about any of the other teams (because I have limited time, plus I think that BrewCrew summed the other teams up perfectly, and I agree with most of what he said about them).

[Arctic Blast]

BrewCrew...Shaun Marcum is out for the year, and Dustin McGowan is out until June.

[200tang]

We need to stop babying players so much... Yeah, Sabathia pitched a lot of innings last year (around 250 I believe), but 10 or 15 years ago, this was the norm. It has just been recent that people get scared or say that a guys arm is gonna fall off because he pitches 240+ innings, or pitches on 3 days rest a few times. The man is a horse... I don't believe he will be breaking down anytime soon... In fact, he'll just get better and stronger, IMO... because here in NY for the Yankees, he's probably only gonna pitch 210-220 regular season innings, if that, and then the post season.

Although I agree Sabathia will probably get in a full season, being 290+ pounds and pitching ~500 innings the past 2 years is something to worry about. Heavier pitchers who throw around that many innings usually end up with shoulder/elbow/back problems There is currently no reason to assume Sabathia can't complete a full season, but just because player A did it 10 years ago doesn't mean anything really. Point is, Sabathia is heavy and there should be a little concern.

[koolzach1]

Although I agree Sabathia will probably get in a full season, being 290+ pounds and pitching ~500 innings the past 2 years is something to worry about. Heavier pitchers who throw around that many innings usually end up with shoulder/elbow/back problems There is currently no reason to assume Sabathia can't complete a full season, but just because player A did it 10 years ago doesn't mean anything really. Point is, Sabathia is heavy and there should be a little concern.

Oh, I see how there is some concern, but he has no injury history whatsoever... So, I think that he should be counted on for at the very least this season to be a factor.

[BrewCrewFan255]

Koolzach, thanks for your post.

Ranking these teams will probably be the hardest of all the divisions. The thing is, anything could go wrong for anyone which would reflect on how well the team does. With the A-Rod situation, and the fact he's already injured, I don't see the Yankees being able to live up to the pressure everyone has put on them. The Red Sox, I just love the veteran presence they signed in the off-season. John Smoltz, a guy who's been through everything, will be key in the clubhouse and taking the younger guys (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bucholz, DeClearmen) and teach them how to play the game the right way and kinda be a mentor for them. It's the team chemistry that makes teams either win or loose, and I think the Red Sox have a better team chemistry then the teams in the AL east, espically the Yankees. I could see the Yankees ending up 2nd easily, heck even 1st, but a lot of right things need to go right in order for that to happen, and I don't see it happening, could I be wrong? Sure, but more then likley I don't see it happening.

[BINGLEBOP]

they do have some young pitching in Marcum and McGowan, I don't think they are ready to have an break-out season, which is why I think the Jays will end up 5th.

Players to watch: Young SP

Their season will highly depend on their young SP in both Marcum and McGowan.

BrewCrew...Shaun Marcum is out for the year, and Dustin McGowan is out until June.

I don't see it happening, could I be wrong? Sure, but more then likley I don't see it happening.

You were wrong on Marcum and McGowan already, so it doesn't look good.

Kidding, kidding.

[HoustonGM]

It's the team chemistry that makes teams either win or loose, and I think the Red Sox have a better team chemistry then the teams in the AL east, espically the Yankees.

No. It is not team chemistry that makes teams either win or lose. It's playing better than the other team that makes teams win.

There is no way for us to measure chemistry, or know what teams have good chemistry or not. What's that old adage? Something like "Winning is chemistry." If a team is winning, there's not going to be any rumbles about a lack of chemistry. Rather, people are going to talk about what a great clubhouse they have....unless you're the Yankees, in which case, you only have good chemistry if you win the World Series. If a team is doing bad, people are going to blame it on a lack of chemistry, rather than, I don't know, the team being fricken' bad.

Tell me, what makes the Red Sox have better chemistry than the Rays? Or the Yankees? And then tell me how that translates into scoring runs.

[BrewCrewFan255]

No. It is not team chemistry that makes teams either win or lose. It's playing better than the other team that makes teams win.

There is no way for us to measure chemistry, or know what teams have good chemistry or not. What's that old adage? Something like "Winning is chemistry." If a team is winning, there's not going to be any rumbles about a lack of chemistry. Rather, people are going to talk about what a great clubhouse they have....unless you're the Yankees, in which case, you only have good chemistry if you win the World Series. If a team is doing bad, people are going to blame it on a lack of chemistry, rather than, I don't know, the team being fricken' bad.

Tell me, what makes the Red Sox have better chemistry than the Rays? Or the Yankees? And then tell me how that translates into scoring runs.

So your telling me the Yankees are going to have the best team chemistry when A-Rod just admitted to using steriods? Your telling me that there won't be any players in the clubhouse who will think he's a cheater, and ultimley ruin the chemistry of the team? It was like the Brett Favre situation in Green Bay, half the players wanted Rodgers to be the QB, half the players wanted Favre to be the QB, and they even said it split lines between the clubhouse, and why didn't McCarthy or Thompson want Favre at the practice? Because it would ruin the chemistry and cause a disruption. Chemistry is a big part in winning, and if you tell me it's not, then that shows you how much you know about winning.

[HoustonGM]

I'm saying that in the overall scope of things, it's not that big of a thing, and if it is, we absolutely have no way to know HOW it affects winning, AND we have no way to measure it, so we cannot say "The Red Sox will win because they have better chemistry."

And please, let's not bring other sports into it. The dynamics of sports like basketball and football are entirely different than baseball.

How do the Red Sox have better chemistry than the Rays? How does that translate into them winning more games? Can you answer those two questions?

[BrewCrewFan255]

No I really can't, maybe I misused some words, what I should have said, they would have the MOST team chemistry because they won more games, and usually winning and chemistry tie perfectly together.

[HoustonGM]

Which supports what I said here:

There is no way for us to measure chemistry, or know what teams have good chemistry or not. What's that old adage? Something like "Winning is chemistry." If a team is winning, there's not going to be any rumbles about a lack of chemistry. Rather, people are going to talk about what a great clubhouse they have....unless you're the Yankees, in which case, you only have good chemistry if you win the World Series. If a team is doing bad, people are going to blame it on a lack of chemistry, rather than, I don't know, the team being fricken' bad.

Chemistry is used by the media to create a story. A team could have the most broken up clubhouse in the game, but if they're winning, we'll hear about how great they get along. A team could have the greatest group of friends, but if they're losing, we'll hear about how a couple bad seeds are dividing the clubhouse.

In the end, talent is by far the most significant factor in winning.

[200tang]

Gotta agree with HGM. I do believe that having leaders in the clubhouse and chemistry are great things to have in a clubhouse, but realistically the effect they have is at best very minimal. I think this whole idea works in the opposite; being depressed (and no, finding out A-Rod used PED's doesn't even come close) would probably lead to a bad season, but I find it hard to believe being happy somehow makes you a significantly better player. I think a lot, if not all, owners and GM's realize this. Why you ask? Well, if they valued leadership so much and it had such a great effect on players, people like Cliff Floyd, Kevin Millar and Jason Varitek would be getting much more money than they are now. If someone found out that leadership somehow added ~20 points (batting average) to all the starters I can guarantee you those guys would have a better salary.

[dickay]

Which supports what I said here:

Chemistry is used by the media to create a story. A team could have the most broken up clubhouse in the game, but if they're winning, we'll hear about how great they get along. A team could have the greatest group of friends, but if they're losing, we'll hear about how a couple bad seeds are dividing the clubhouse.

In the end, talent is by far the most significant factor in winning.

agree that talent by far is the most significant factor, but chemistry most certainly plays a part. How much? Can't say....but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. And the fact that you admit it exists in other sports has to at minimum leave some possibility in your mind that it exists to some degree in baseball. From personal experiences, I strongly believe 'chemistry' can make or break a clubhouse/team. You don't need "great" chemistry but "bad" chemistry, "25 cabs for 25 players", can ruin a team regardless of talent.

I think this whole idea works in the opposite; being depressed (and no, finding out A-Rod used PED's doesn't even come close) would probably lead to a bad season, but I find it hard to believe being happy somehow makes you a significantly better player.

thats an oxymoron. If you're depressed and you believe that leads to a bad season, than obviously being happy would make that person significantly better than when he was depressed lol. Just using your logic on that one. However, your quote proves that you believe bad chemistry, which leads to unhappy players/clubhouse "would probably lead to a bad season". I'd argue some may play better when angry/unhappy...but that runs a short stint. Over 162 games, a team that constantly argues, doesnt' get along....that will wear thin and blow up.