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I like to place over/under bets on wins for some teams. I at first thought the AL East would have 3 90 plus wins teams. Now I'm not so sure because the Yanks, Sox and Rays have to play each other so much. How many wins will it take to win the division, and for the same reason of playing each other, do you think the wild card can come out of that division? Move any of those 3 teams to another division and I think they win 95-97. now I think 91 -93 at best will do it. Your thoughts?
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
― Isaac Asimov
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Eh, 95, because they do have the Jays, O's, and other weak teams out of the divison to beat on.
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Matt Wieters says:"My morning routine goes: wake up, bang 10 hot women, eat Lucky Charms, destroy a few countries, and then read YeahThisIsMyBlog.blogspot.com."
Mogul No No's and Perfect Games:
2008 Royals-Gil Meche No hitter in 10 innings 1-0 final score
2038 Padres-Matthew Graham Perfect Game 1-0 victory!
Hail to the king, baby.
lol "can" the WC come out of this division? It's almost certain the wild card will.Originally Posted by acetoolguy
Here are the CHONE projections that just came out today btw.
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm
o
PECOTA agrees with CHONE on the AL East, for the most part. I'm wondering how CHONE has the Padres at a near-.500 team and 2nd place though...The Padres, I think, are virtually guaranteed last place this year.
Think again. It nearly happened in 2008. The Yankees were one win shy of 90. It kind of got lost in the shuffle of "OMG The Yankees didn't make the playoffs!" but the AL East had 4 teams with 86+ wins in 2008. Now, one of those teams, the Blue Jays, lost their second best pitcher to the Yankees, and haven't done much of anything to upgrade...I think it's very likely that the AL East has 3 90 win teams in 2009.
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yeah, i did over think the wild card.
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
― Isaac Asimov
Hail to the king, baby.
How can a team have a 1/2? And the Cubs are in the NL.
Im watching you
Its going to come down to Boston and Tampa, I think 95 wins can guarantee the East because there is just so much weakness outside that division anyway. Anaheim isnt going to win nearly as many games and that AL Central is especially weak.
Hail to the king, baby.
Also here's an article on how the CHONE projection does its thing.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ted-standings/
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And it was an old over/under.......so its gone.
FYI the 1/2 eliminates a tie on the bet. It has a more profound effect on an NFL season.
Pats at 11 1/2 for example. If you want the over you need them to win 12, or only 11 if you pick the under.
The other thing to always remember about any Vegas number is that it is NOT how many games they expect the team to win nor by how many. Its the number that gets 50% of the bettors to pick one team and 50% to pick the other. Thus ensuring they make money no matter who wins.
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
― Isaac Asimov
Hail to the king, baby.
Oh, I thought you meant a projection system. nevermind.
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Wow, PECOTA and CHONES vary quite a bit in the NL West. My question: Why do they see the Braves doing so well? I love them, but I don't see the NL East being THAT close...
Economic Left/Right: -7.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.72
Matt Wieters says:"My morning routine goes: wake up, bang 10 hot women, eat Lucky Charms, destroy a few countries, and then read YeahThisIsMyBlog.blogspot.com."
Mogul No No's and Perfect Games:
2008 Royals-Gil Meche No hitter in 10 innings 1-0 final score
2038 Padres-Matthew Graham Perfect Game 1-0 victory!
o
The Braves have arguably the best rotation in the division.
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PECOTA and CHONE both picked the Rockies to have losing records.
And so we wait another 12 years for a playoff berth...
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CHONE has them within 4, though!
Economic Left/Right: -7.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.72
Matt Wieters says:"My morning routine goes: wake up, bang 10 hot women, eat Lucky Charms, destroy a few countries, and then read YeahThisIsMyBlog.blogspot.com."
Mogul No No's and Perfect Games:
2008 Royals-Gil Meche No hitter in 10 innings 1-0 final score
2038 Padres-Matthew Graham Perfect Game 1-0 victory!
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I was also wondering how the Braves got so high..
And HGM, I don't see how you can argue against the Marlins having the best rotation in their division
I also thought the Mets would win the east by 4-5 games with their new additions. I'm a big Mets fan and you're usually extremely pessimistic about your own team, but I can't help but feel that they're going to run away with the division with their new bullpen. They were extremely close to doing it the past two years, and you can't expect them to collapse yet again.
..i think
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