A thousand miles from Cooperstown

[HoustonGM]

Swampdog, was my "guess" at why you didn't include Larkin and Alomar correct?

Btw, for career value of non-HOF'ers, I have Murphy behind Smith, Davis, Pinson, Cedeno, Al Oliver, and Jimmy Wynn. About the same career value as Brett Butler, actually.

Butler was very underrated. I have Murphy 6th, then Cedeno 7th, and Butler 8th. Murphy's higher than them both because of his much better peak, but it's all close. In overall career value I actually see Butler better than both of them, but my rankings aren't just straight career value.

[Swampdog]

The simplest answer is that Hernandez is the best defensive first basemen ever and while Olerud was very good, he wasn't Hernandez.

The more complicated answer would also include their eras. The 1980's were a lot harder to dominate, while the 1990's were much easier. Hernandez placed in the top 8 in his league in OPS+ 6 times (3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8), for example, while Olerud had 3 top 10 finishes (1, 3, 10).

That was pretty simple all right. I might add that, in addition to being a greater defensive player, Hernandez was a better baserunner (faster) and, a better offensive player overall, albeit only slightly.

In roughly the same number of at bats (Olerud led 7592 to 7370), Olerud grounded into more than 70 more double plays (232-161). In 17 seasons, Hernandez hit 60 triples, while Olerud managed only 13, also in 17 seasons.

Hernandez stole 98 bases in 161 attempts (60% success rate), and Olerud somehow managed 11 steals in 25 attempts(44%).

Olerud created 6.8 runs a game to 6.3 for Hernandez. But when you adjust those numbers for context (league, park, etc), Hernandez edges ahead by 6.6 to 6.4. Some of their numbers are similar, but Hernandez was clearly a better player.

[Swampdog]

Swampdog, was my "guess" at why you didn't include Larkin and Alomar correct?


Butler was very underrated. I have Murphy 6th, then Cedeno 7th, and Butler 8th. Murphy's higher than them both because of his much better peak, but it's all close. In overall career value I actually see Butler better than both of them, but my rankings aren't just straight career value.

Well, no, not really. I was updating an old list (career value), comparing it to a newer list, and I overlooked McGriffs retirement year. You are right, of course, he isn't yet eligible so he shouldn't be on that list. Speed error.

On the other hand, I expect Larkin to get in the Hall quickly, while Alomar will have to wait a while, but makes it eventually.

[HoustonGM]

On the other hand, I expect Larkin to get in the Hall quickly, while Alomar will have to wait a while, but makes it eventually.

Heh, I actually see it the other way around...mostly because of Alomar's defensive reputation and his Gold Gloves.

Of course, the BBWAA vote when it comes to middle infielders is pretty baffling, so I don't really have any idea with how it's going to come out. Alan Trammell's career was roughly equivalent to Larkin, and better than many players both in the Hall and on the ballot, and he can't crack 20%...It took Ryne Sandberg a couple years to get in...Lou Whitaker dropped off the ballot after one chance...Really weird stuff.

[Swampdog]

Heh, I actually see it the other way around...mostly because of Alomar's defensive reputation and his Gold Gloves.

I would be amazed if Alomar makes the HOF before Larkin. I could be entirely wrong, but I think that Alomar will be penalized for "the incident". For anyone who doesn't remember, in 1996, Alomar spit into the face of umpire John Hirschbeck after he was called out on strikes, and ejected from the game. After the game, Alomar claimed that it wasn't his fault, and that Hirschbeck has been a bitter man since his 8 year old son died.

While Alomar did eventually apologize to Hirschbeck, he was castigated in the press (rightfully, I think) for his demeaning actions towards the umpire.

In my view, spitting in another mans face is the ultimate misconduct, to put it mildly. When his HOF vote looms, this will be revisited time and time again, I'm sure. I think that Alomar makes the HOF eventually, but I expect he will have to wait a while.

[HoustonGM]

Yeah. Who knows though, really. The BBWAA are a funny crowd.