O's acquire Rich Hill

[oriole^]

I like this move. It's not as if we're shoving someone more deserving out of the way; everyone else is either two years away or just flat out not a major leaguer.

I don't know if he can bounce back; most signs point to him never again being the pitcher he was in 2007, but there's still a good chance he can be a good pitcher...and hey, look at Jeremy Guthrie. Sometimes they can just put it together.

Anyway, there's no particular sense in not taking a gamble on him.

(And btw, did you see those Cubs fans in the comments section thinking that the PTBNL was going to be Brian Roberts? Good Lord, what are they putting in the water in Chicago nowadays?)

[filihok]

I like this move. It's not as if we're shoving someone more deserving out of the way; everyone else is either two years away or just flat out not a major leaguer.

I don't know if he can bounce back; most signs point to him never again being the pitcher he was in 2007, but there's still a good chance he can be a good pitcher...and hey, look at Jeremy Guthrie. Sometimes they can just put it together.

Anyway, there's no particular sense in not taking a gamble on him.

(And btw, did you see those Cubs fans in the comments section thinking that the PTBNL was going to be Brian Roberts? Good Lord, what are they putting in the water in Chicago nowadays?)

LOL @ Brian Roberts

It's a good move. However the Blass/Ankiel disease looks pretty real

[RedsoxRockies]

Nice move for Baltimore, IF he can bounce back, he could really make them look good.

[TheBest21]

Good luck with him. He was our 3rd starter until he had his problems. He's got all the talent it's just in his head. He never regained his control in the minors after being demoted or in the Venezuelan league. Walked 23 in 21 innings in Venezuela.

[HoustonGM]

Nice move for Baltimore, IF he can bounce back, he could really make them look good.

He could make the Orioles look good? For acquiring him, or like, literally like a good team?

[RedsoxRockies]

He could make the Orioles look good? For acquiring him, or like, literally like a good team?

For acquiring him obviously

[beerchaser]

I like this move. It's not as if we're shoving someone more deserving out of the way; everyone else is either two years away or just flat out not a major leaguer.

I don't know if he can bounce back; most signs point to him never again being the pitcher he was in 2007, but there's still a good chance he can be a good pitcher...and hey, look at Jeremy Guthrie. Sometimes they can just put it together.

Anyway, there's no particular sense in not taking a gamble on him.

(And btw, did you see those Cubs fans in the comments section thinking that the PTBNL was going to be Brian Roberts? Good Lord, what are they putting in the water in Chicago nowadays?)

Roberts? That's as funny as, well, Oriole fans who thought Reid Brignac was going to be the PTBNL in the Chad Bradford trade late last season. I remember seeing some posts to that effect at the Orioles Hangout board.

That said, I think MacPhail is making some nice low-risk, decent upside deals.

[Jeffy25]

I see this as a good move for both teams: He was out of options, and he could work out in BAL....and Chicago won't be upset if he does.

A buy low for Baltimore.

[oriole^]

Roberts? That's as funny as, well, Oriole fans who thought Reid Brignac was going to be the PTBNL in the Chad Bradford trade late last season. I remember seeing some posts to that effect at the Orioles Hangout board.

That said, I think MacPhail is making some nice low-risk, decent upside deals.

Well, Roberts is an All-Star and Hill is a retread-at-best, whereas Bradford can still pitch and Brignac is a talented-but-blocked prospect who doesn't have a major league hit to his name yet...so I'd say the O's fans were being a bit hopeful while the Cubs fans were completely out to lunch. Not really comparable.

The rumor is that the next pitcher to come to town might be Braden Looper.

[beerchaser]

Well, Roberts is an All-Star and Hill is a retread-at-best, whereas Bradford can still pitch and Brignac is a talented-but-blocked prospect who doesn't have a major league hit to his name yet...so I'd say the O's fans were being a bit hopeful while the Cubs fans were completely out to lunch. Not really comparable.

The rumor is that the next pitcher to come to town might be Braden Looper.

"A bit hopeful"? Dude, that Chad Bradford PTBNL thing turned into a running joke, especially considering it turned out to be just a straight salary dump and there never actually was a PTBNL, at least not as far as I know. The fact that MacPhail was willing to let Bradford go for nothing simply to get rid of his $3+MM annual salary should tell you how much he was worth. Even the Orioles beat writers admitted that situation got silly. As for Brignac being blocked, maybe/maybe not, all depends on how well he plays or how well Bartlett does. It's not as though Bartlett is Evan Longoria.

As for Roberts, I believe the PTBNL for Hill depends on how well he pitches for Baltimore. The better he does; the better the player coming back to Chicago. It'll take some time to determine that, well into the season in fact, and meanwhile Roberts' trade value will be diminishing the longer he stays a potential FA and the longer he stays in Baltimore. Does that mean Roberts would/could be a PTBNL? No, in my opinion Hill will not pitch anywhere near that well AND Roberts will be traded long before then, but perhaps not as farfetched as you might think.

Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that most fans tend to overvalue their own guys' trade value, even the ones they are anxious to get rid of, and undervalue the other teams' guys.

[oriole^]

"A bit hopeful"? Dude, that Chad Bradford PTBNL thing turned into a running joke, especially considering it turned out to be just a straight salary dump and there never actually was a PTBNL, at least not as far as I know. The fact that MacPhail was willing to let Bradford go for nothing simply to get rid of his $3+MM annual salary should tell you how much he was worth. Even the Orioles beat writers admitted that situation got silly. As for Brignac being blocked, maybe/maybe not, all depends on how well he plays or how well Bartlett does. It's not as though Bartlett is Evan Longoria.

As for Roberts, I believe the PTBNL for Hill depends on how well he pitches for Baltimore. The better he does; the better the player coming back to Chicago. It'll take some time to determine that, well into the season in fact, and meanwhile Roberts' trade value will be diminishing the longer he stays a potential FA and the longer he stays in Baltimore. Does that mean Roberts would/could be a PTBNL? No, in my opinion Hill will not pitch anywhere near that well AND Roberts will be traded long before then, but perhaps not as farfetched as you might think.

Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that most fans tend to overvalue their own guys' trade value, even the ones they are anxious to get rid of, and undervalue the other teams' guys.

Let's try this again. Expecting to get this:

(AAA) .250, 9 HR, 43 RBI in 97 games, .970 FA at SS

back for this:

(MLB) 3-3, 2.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 47 games

is supposed to be "silly", a "running joke", and a sign of "overvaluing their own guys' trade value".

But expecting to get this:

(MLB) .296/.378 OBP, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 51 doubles (2nd in AL),
107 R (3rd in AL); .989 FA at 2B, 4.74 Range at 2B

for this:

(MLB) 1-0, 4.12 ERA, 1.576 WHIP in 5 games
(AAA) 2-4, 5.88 ERA, 1.920 WHIP in 7 games

is "not as farfetched as you might think".

Uh, yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one, guy.

Salaries being what they are can indeed lead to some strange circumstances, and I'm well aware that's what was going on with Bradford, but heck, there are some other considerations in baseball, as I remember.

I'll admit that I think Roberts should be resigned and extended by the Orioles, and we should concentrate on building any young talent around the Roberts-Markakis nucleus...but I realize it might not go that way, and it might even be good for the Orioles if Roberts was traded for a couple of good, young prospects. I'm willing to be sold on either option. On the other hand, according to some fans, he's on his third season of being a soon-to-be-Cub...a kinda-maybe-sorta prospect that so many people were going goofy over that Mark DeRosa, who's a decent player, got shipped out of town for some rookie pitchers and a used rosin bag.

I don't think I'm saying much when I say that I could do a better job than Peter Angelos...I mean, so could you, so could my cat, and so on. But if this is what passes for logical GM behavior in the rest of the league, then I clearly haven't been paying enough attention - to hockey season.

[beerchaser]

Let's try this again. Expecting to get this:

(AAA) .250, 9 HR, 43 RBI in 97 games, .970 FA at SS

back for this:

(MLB) 3-3, 2.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 47 games

is supposed to be "silly", a "running joke", and a sign of "overvaluing their own guys' trade value".

But expecting to get this:

(MLB) .296/.378 OBP, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 51 doubles (2nd in AL),
107 R (3rd in AL); .989 FA at 2B, 4.74 Range at 2B

for this:

(MLB) 1-0, 4.12 ERA, 1.576 WHIP in 5 games
(AAA) 2-4, 5.88 ERA, 1.920 WHIP in 7 games

is "not as farfetched as you might think".

Uh, yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one, guy.

Salaries being what they are can indeed lead to some strange circumstances, and I'm well aware that's what was going on with Bradford, but heck, there are some other considerations in baseball, as I remember.

I'll admit that I think Roberts should be resigned and extended by the Orioles, and we should concentrate on building any young talent around the Roberts-Markakis nucleus...but I realize it might not go that way, and it might even be good for the Orioles if Roberts was traded for a couple of good, young prospects. I'm willing to be sold on either option. On the other hand, according to some fans, he's on his third season of being a soon-to-be-Cub...a kinda-maybe-sorta prospect that so many people were going goofy over that Mark DeRosa, who's a decent player, got shipped out of town for some rookie pitchers and a used rosin bag.

I don't think I'm saying much when I say that I could do a better job than Peter Angelos...I mean, so could you, so could my cat, and so on. But if this is what passes for logical GM behavior in the rest of the league, then I clearly haven't been paying enough attention - to hockey season.

Try one more time - you're not making a valid comparison. You can't judge trade value simply off last year's statistics; trades aren't made in that kind of vacuum. Brignac is a 22 year old prospect who is currently valued based on future potential, not what he has done statistically to this point. Baseball America has him ranked as the #4 prospect for 2009 in what is a talent-rich organization. Bradford is a 34 year old journeyman situational reliever who (per Cot's) was paid $3.5MM in 2008 and owed another $3.5MM in 2009. I refer you to an October 2008 blog post by one of your own beat writers, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun, which does not mention Brignac by name but it's pretty obvious who he's referring to:

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/schmuck/2008/10/the_ptbnl.html


And as we now know, there was no PTBNL at all for Bradford. It was just a straight salary dump. I have heard that Tampa has shopped Bradford around some in the offseason looking to shed his 2009 salary with no success. The "silly", "running joke" part came not so much from the trade comparison, but from the way O's fans were bombarding their beat writers with questions and speculation late last season about the PTBNL who turned out not to be a PTBNL. Granted, O's fans didn't have much to cheer about at the end of last season, but it did get out of hand. That's what I was poking fun at. And it was most definitely a case of overvaluing your guy's trade value.

Now for Hill-Roberts. Again, the PTBNL for Hill will be determined by how well he pitches for Baltimore THIS season, not how he pitched for the Cubs LAST season. He may very well suck balls this year, probably the most likely outcome in fact, in which case the Orioles owe practically nothing I would think. If he does pitch well though, for a team that really needs pitching this year, they have to give up something of decent value. We won't know the answer to that until at least midseason. I am not saying that decent value means Roberts; I only said that it isn't an utterly crazy idea IF (IF!!) Hill pitches well enough to get back to where he was two years ago and if Roberts is not signed to an extension and is still in Baltimore this year around the trade deadline. Roberts' trade value is less now than it was a year ago and it will likely continue to drop as the season goes on, not because of his stats but because of his contract status. Which is why I think they should go ahead and either extend him or trade him now, though they probably won't until after Orlando Hudson finds a new home.

So sure, we'll agree to disagree if that's what you want. But by referring to the Bradford trade I was merely trying to illustrate my original point, which you did not really address because you got caught up in defending Bradford and Roberts. It is that fans of all teams tend to overvalue their own players in trade discussions, even the ones they want to dump on other teams, while at the same time undervaluing the other teams' players. So most of the trade proposals you see from fans are typically one-sided in their favor and unrealistic. Sure, Cubs fans are likely overvaluing Hill and undervaluing Roberts somewhat if they think that's who they will get in return. I didn't see the posts you were referring to (you should have linked them) so I don't know the context in which they were posted. But that doesn't mean there's something in the water in Chicago, or that Orioles fans (and other fans as well) aren't guilty of drinking the same Kool-Aid. Do you disagree with that?

[HoustonGM]

Just throwing my two sense in, but I think it's basically equally crazy to expect Reid Brignac for Chad Bradford as it is to expect Brian Roberts for Rich Hill, unless Rich Hill goes Cliff Lee on the AL this year .

[oriole^]

Well, let me be clear about all this: I don't think it's fair to expect Reid Brignac back for Chad Bradford. Yeah, people got very wishful about that, and I guess I don't blame them...it would be nice to think that if the stars aligned correctly, that might happen. (Incidentally, there will be a PTBNL coming back for Bradford. It won't be anyone of any consequence for any team, but there will be someone. No one else is saying "straight salary dump", except in de facto terms.)

The point of posting the stats was to prove that it not be absolutely out of the realm of possibility, however, and that a sober, straight-up evaluation could be turned on its head for a bit to the point where it wouldn't be a completely crazy deal. The prospect of Brian Roberts returning for Rich Hill is in fact that. It is batshit, over-the-rainbow insane and there is simply no set of contract numbers one can put on the situation to make it otherwise - and it's doubly so given that the Cubs fans in question (I'll link them later if I can find that thing again, but please, take my word for it) were expecting him straight out, right now, cab-fare-to-the-airport and fit him for a jersey, because they swapped us this sore-armed fixer-upper project. It frightens me that people like that apparently walk the streets without some kind of handlers, even if they are in Chicago.

I think everyone here has a fairly decent idea what these guys are worth, so I'm not slamming anyone here...but if you're looking for true myopia, those would be the guys to start with, not me. I can somewhat forgive their ignorance based on one thing: namely, Peter Angelos. Given that ESPN hasn't informed anyone out there that the Red Sox and Yankees have other teams in their division, one of which won last year, they could be forgiven for thinking that Angelos's insanity is all that's necessary for this little gem to go through. They'd be correct about Angelos being insane, but fortunately, we do have MacPhail, and I'm confident in the ability of Baltimore's good citizens to stage an appropriate riot all up and down Howard Street to Eutaw if it was so much as contemplated.

I don't know whether Brian Roberts will be extended or be dealt somewhere...but I feel fairly confident in saying that Brian Roberts will sprout wings and fly laps around Camden Yards before he is sent off as the PTBNL for Rich Hill.