Manny to St. Louis

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

Grady Sizemore says "Hi!"

He's the one guy on the same planet as Beltran, but I've even seen Cleveland fans concede that Beltran is better than Sizemore right now.

[HoustonGM]

He's the one guy on the same planet as Beltran, but I've even seen Cleveland fans concede that Beltran is better than Sizemore right now.

Honestly, neither is better than the other, in my opinion. They're 1a and 1b when it comes to center fielders.

From 2005-2008:

Sizemore: .281/.372/.496, 107 HR, 115 SB, 31 CS, 37.3 WARP, 25.7 Value Wins
Beltran: .275/.362/.505, 117 HR, 83 SB, 14 CS, 40.5 WARP, 20.1 Value Wins

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

Honestly, neither is better than the other, in my opinion. They're 1a and 1b when it comes to center fielders.

From 2005-2008:

Sizemore: .281/.372/.496, 107 HR, 115 SB, 31 CS, 37.3 WARP, 25.7 Value Wins
Beltran: .275/.362/.505, 117 HR, 83 SB, 14 CS, 40.5 WARP, 20.1 Value Wins

No argument from me, like I said, Sizemore is the only one in the conversation. Just elaborating on the "well above average" comment, in regards to Beltran.

[justanewguy]

He's the one guy on the same planet as Beltran, but I've even seen Cleveland fans concede that Beltran is better than Sizemore right now.

It's a tough call. If I wanted a CF for the '09 season ONLY, I'd be torn. Sizemore could only get better, and could actually "break out" this season (a very scary thought) where Beltran is into his 30s. Grady Sizemore could become the best all around player in all of baseball in his peak (which hasn't yet hit). If I wanted a guy for even as few as 2 seasons, I'd take Sizemore hands down.

I like Sizemore's defense more than Beltran's, outside of offensive production.

Really, it's a total push at this moment. But there's definitely no "head and shoulders" top guy.

[HoustonGM]

Really, it's a total push at this moment. But there's definitely no "head and shoulders" top guy.

There are two guys that are "head and shoulders" above the rest, though

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

I like Sizemore's defense more than Beltran's, outside of offensive production

Eh. Beltran is a great defensive outfielder in his own right, but Sizemore has more of a penchant for the flashy, "SportsCenter" plays. I'd use stats, but I wouldn't know where to look for advanced defensive metrics.

[HoustonGM]

Eh. Beltran is a great defensive outfielder in his own right, but Sizemore has more of a penchant for the flashy, "SportsCenter" plays. I'd use stats, but I wouldn't know where to look for advanced defensive metrics.

UZR can be found at FanGraphs. It's in terms of runs above average:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: +3.6/-8.6
2006: +11.3/+7.1
2007: +4.8/+1.6
2008: +11.5/+6.2

Fielding Runs Above Average from Baseball Prospectus:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: -7/+8
2006: 0/+25
2007: -5/+19
2008: -8/+2

John Dewan's +/- numbers, plays above average:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: +10/+7
2006: +10/+16
2007: ??/+25
2008: ??/+24

I don't have 2007/2008 numbers for him because fieldingbible.com only shows the top 10 and bottom 5 at each position, and in those years, Sizemore was somewhere in between.

FRAA is the least advanced of these systems. UZR and +/- disagree on the players, but both score well.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

UZR can be found at FanGraphs. It's in terms of runs above average:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: +3.6/-8.6
2006: +11.3/+7.1
2007: +4.8/+1.6
2008: +11.5/+6.2

Fielding Runs Above Average from Baseball Prospectus:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: -7/+8
2006: 0/+25
2007: -5/+19
2008: -8/+2

John Dewan's +/- numbers, plays above average:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: +10/+7
2006: +10/+16
2007: ??/+25
2008: ??/+24

I don't have 2007/2008 numbers for him because fieldingbible.com only shows the top 10 and bottom 5 at each position, and in those years, Sizemore was somewhere in between.

FRAA is the least advanced of these systems. UZR and +/- disagree on the players, but both score well.

So, again, more or less equal.

[justanewguy]

So, again, more or less equal.

Pretty much. This kind of thing (Beltran vs. Sizemore, defensively) is really a matter of what whoever is talking about it has seen.

I'd basically default to the notion that Sizemore could only get better, where Beltran probably (and most likely) can't, so for '09 I'd want Sizemore manning CF.

You definitely couldn't go wrong, though, with either of them, and you couldn't say with complete confidence that one is better than the other.

[defense]

Back to the initial purpose of the thread.

The title is a little misleading. It makes it sound like Ramirez is heading to Saint Louis(or atleast that there is a legit rumor linking him to Saint Louis). However all the link links to is Pujols stating that he would like Ramirez on the team.

[KowboyKoop]

UZR can be found at FanGraphs. It's in terms of runs above average:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: +3.6/-8.6
2006: +11.3/+7.1
2007: +4.8/+1.6
2008: +11.5/+6.2

Fielding Runs Above Average from Baseball Prospectus:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: -7/+8
2006: 0/+25
2007: -5/+19
2008: -8/+2

John Dewan's +/- numbers, plays above average:

Sizemore/Beltran
2005: +10/+7
2006: +10/+16
2007: ??/+25
2008: ??/+24

I don't have 2007/2008 numbers for him because fieldingbible.com only shows the top 10 and bottom 5 at each position, and in those years, Sizemore was somewhere in between.

FRAA is the least advanced of these systems. UZR and +/- disagree on the players, but both score well.

So...according to one system, Sizemore is much better. According to another, Beltran is way better and Sizemore is below average, and according to the last one, Beltran is really good and they haven't bothered to rate Sizemore for the last couple years.


Defensive metrics suck. Long way to go in that field before I start relying on them totally.

[HoustonGM]

and according to the last one, Beltran is really good and they haven't bothered to rate Sizemore for the last couple years.

No...As I said, I only have access to the top 10 and bottom 5 of the players at each position because I'm not subscribed to billjamesonline.com, which is where I think the numbers for every player are available. They'll be available in the Fielding Bible 2 book that comes out this month, though. In 2007 and 2008, Sizemore wasn't in the top 10 or the bottom 5 of center fielders. He was somewhere in between.

Defensive metrics suck. Long way to go in that field before I start relying on them totally.

They don't "suck." They're just not as reliable as offensive/pitching metrics. Obviously, relying on them totally isn't a good idea, but looking at a mix of advanced defensive metrics will give you a much better idea of a player's defense than looking at how many Gold Gloves he has. On the whole, they do tend to relatively agree with each other.

[dickay]

There are two massive holes. But considering how good their infield is, how good their CF is (well above average), and that they do have quite a bit of depth in the OF, they're not really in a precarious situation the way some other teams are. When I say "other teams," I really mean the Giants. I hate the Giants (of course), and I want Manny back in blue, but if I were Sabean, I'd pull the trigger on Manny yesterday.

How good their IF is? I agree 3rd is set, but at SS they have a guy who has a proven track record of falling apart in September, at 1st is another aging veteran who the Met fans were begging to be released midseason last year, nothing spectacular behind the plate and nobody likes their 2nd basemen. In fact, every day I hear met fans on the radio begging for orlando hudson.

As far as depth in the OF....if winning could be obtained by having alot of bums instead of a few bums, the KC Royals would be consecutive title winners

Manny should be a Met today. They f'ed up "royally" last year not aquiring him for the song the Dodgers got him for. They very likely would be world champions right now, and definetly would have made the playoffs.

[KowboyKoop]

No...As I said, I only have access to the top 10 and bottom 5 of the players at each position because I'm not subscribed to billjamesonline.com, which is where I think the numbers for every player are available. They'll be available in the Fielding Bible 2 book that comes out this month, though. In 2007 and 2008, Sizemore wasn't in the top 10 or the bottom 5 of center fielders. He was somewhere in between.


They don't "suck." They're just not as reliable as offensive/pitching metrics. Obviously, relying on them totally isn't a good idea, but looking at a mix of advanced defensive metrics will give you a much better idea of a player's defense than looking at how many Gold Gloves he has. On the whole, they do tend to relatively agree with each other.

They do still suck. Of course they are better than GG's, but they have a long long long long way to go before being on the level of offensive stats. Defensive metrics aren't to be relied on..there just seems to be way too much fluctuation from system to sytem and from year to year for players within the same system..all of which can't be explained. Until there is actual data on the path of every ball hit, how hard/the speed, the angle, the spin of all balls hit and judged accordingly.....defensive metrics are going nowhere. As it is now..a lot of the metrics are based on people watching video and putting every ball into a few general categories. That is way too impercise and prone to human bias.

They "suck" compared to offensive metrics. Doesn't mean they are a complete waste of time, but I just can't rely on them very much.

With the invention of hit f(x) (or something like that..there was an article on this on fangraphs) that tracks the batted ball with much more percision, there is hope for defensive metrics. But Hit f/x is apparently going to take a long time to be complete...I think that it what it will take for us to truly measure defensive ability.

[HoustonGM]

They do still suck. Of course they are better than GG's, but they have a long long long long way to go before being on the level of offensive stats.

Of course.

Defensive metrics aren't to be relied on..there just seems to be way too much fluctuation from system to sytem and from year to year for players within the same system all of which can't be explained.

There isn't as much fluctuation from system to system as you seem to think. It does exist for some players, and yes there's more fluctuation than offensive stats, but for most players, the advanced systems do peg the players at roughly the same level. And from year to year? Yeah, offensive stats do that too...

Until there is actual data on the path of every ball hit, how hard/the speed, the angle, the spin of all balls hit and judged accordingly.....defensive metrics are going nowhere. As it is now..a lot of the metrics are based on people watching video and putting every ball into a few general categories. That is way too impercise and prone to human bias.

The +/- system does judge every ball on it's path, how hard it was it, speed, etc. That data, plus the video analysts, is used.

FRAA is based off the basic stats - putouts, assists, errors, etc.

And here's an introduction to UZR, from 2003. The system's been updated since.

I'm not really sure exactly what your point is. Is it to not look at the stats? We definitely should look at them. Is it to not trust them as much as we trust offensive stats? Yeah, of course. I'm just not sure what you're objecting to. It seems every time somebody mentions advanced defensive stats, you make it a point to post and say this same stuff you're saying now, if I recall correctly. I'm not sure why.