Royals sign Greinke to extention through 2012.

[KowboyKoop]

Yeah, all stuff Royals is ignored. That's why there's been a thread devoted to pretty much every transaction involving the Royals this offseason. I don't know where you live, but where I live, I put up with the Royals being criticized non-stop, all year, no matter what they do.

[Swampdog]

Yeah, all stuff Royals is ignored. That's why there's been a thread devoted to pretty much every transaction involving the Royals this offseason. I don't know where you live, but where I live, I put up with the Royals being criticized non-stop, all year, no matter what they do.

h, because you keep the Royals chat going. If you quit, I doubt that much would be said.

[filihok]

RISKY PITCHERS

11. Zack Greinke

2008 Curve/Slider % - 31%
2008 Total Pitches: 3,227
Difference From 2007: 1,144
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches - NO

Last time Greinke topped 3,000 pitches (2005), he had a mental breakdown the next year. He might be headed for a physical breakdown this year. That’s both a big spike in pitch count and a high percentage of breaking balls. Of the 10 pitchers who threw 2,700+ pitches, 30+% breaking balls, and had a 700+ pitch spike between 2005-2007, 6 broke down the next year and another 2 saw a 0.50+ increase in their FIP. If you believe those stats, there is only a 4-1 chance (20%) that Greinke can stay healthy and post an ERA below 4.00. Okay for a late round play but avoid him in the middle rounds.

[KowboyKoop]

RISKY PITCHERS

There is certainly some risk, but I think there are plenty of things in Zack's favor. Extremely clean, solid mechanics (so I am hear, I am no expert), a limited workload at the ages of 20-23...a period when many young pitchers are abused, causing them to later develop injury trouble (Ben Sheets, maybe?), and the fact that he got stronger as the year went on. In August, he had a 2.46 ERA and September a 2.18 ERA, with 58 Ks in 52 innings...and only 14 walks.

Certainly could be a risk because of the inning increase....but I'm not too sure how worried I can be b/c of the breaking ball percentage...when he throws his slider his arm motion seems so much more natural than when I watch other pitchers with similar stuff....seems to be less twisting of the elbow when he delivers the tight slider...it isn't a huge breaking slider like other pitchers that have to get a lot of torque in their elbow to throw it...it's more of a snap slider (not sure if that makes sense.)

I'd say there is a little risk of injury next year, more that last year, but I'm not sure if it's necessarily that much more than an average 25 year old pitcher.


Also, I'm not sure I like the part at the end of this piece. He seems to have a lot of solid info in the actual list..and then at the end it just names a bunch of guys who could/should clearly be on the risky pitcher list..but it just gives personal opinions and "feelings" as to why they are exceptions. He says "we just feel like he might have another 200 inning year" in him when talking about Ben Sheets. He just "feels" like Billingsly can handle a load that others can't. With Slowey, he says that cause he walked so few, that makes him less prone to injury, yet somehow doesn't mention that detail for anyone else. Randy Johnson is apparently a "Freak of nature" and thus not a risky pitcher, despite being 45 years old and only managing 56 innings in '07.

The last paragraph makes me think that this is just some guy drawing his own conclusions beforehand and then fitting the numbers to match his opinions. If you take out the last paragraph..I like the piece...but that ruins it for me.