Indians sign Pavano

[RedsoxRockies]

Indians could have some serious starting pitching issues next year. Lee is going to regress, it's just a matter of how much (though he could still be a good pitcher), Carmona and Sowers and Laffey looks questionable at very best (their K/BB ratios look pretty bad, especially Carmona)..I'm not sure where they are going to find anyone else to start from. Reyes is another huge question mark....15 Ks/12 BBs in his short stint with the Indians last year.....could be a rough year for Cleveland in terms of starting pitching.

Then again...a lot of guys could bounce back/improve and post good numbers unexpectedly..you never really know.

I expect them to finish sub .500 next year, their rotation after Lee is iffy as you stated, and they have no big offensive players.

[HoustonGM]

Ugh. Fantastic. Mark DeRosa and Carl Pavano...what a frigging wonderful offseason. Let the push for mediocrity begin!

DeRosa was an excellent pick-up, and it allows them to significantly improve their defense, shifting Peralta to third and Asdrubal Cabrera to short.

and they have no big offensive players.

Take that back.

[Arctic Blast]

It would be nice if Travis Hafner would remember how to swing a damn bat again...that guy has collapsed since he signed that massive extension (an extension that REALLY limited their chances of keeping CC).

[haveacigar]

Carmona isn't a strikeout pitcher, so I don't think his K/BB ratio really means a lot. And I really don't think Lee is going to be significantly worse. He's not Esteban Loaiza. Sowers isn't very good but Laffey has some decent upside as well. They still have to be considered a contender in the AL Central as long as the bullpen holds up.

[ohms_law]

$1.5 million worth of pitching is hardly anything. For anyone other then an arbitration eligable player, that's at or below replacement cost. Keeping the arbitration clock from kicking in early on someone can easily be said to have more value then $1.5 million.

[Wassit3]

$1.5 million worth of pitching is hardly anything. For anyone other then an arbitration eligable player, that's at or below replacement cost. Keeping the arbitration clock from kicking in early on someone can easily be said to have more value then $1.5 million.

2008 Carl Pavano numbers

Won Loss ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP Starts IP

4 2 5.77 4.44 77 1.485 7 41

Those look like about $1.5 million worth of piching to me if he can make 25 to 30 starts and sustain those number...this might not be that bad of a deal

[filihok]

Those look like about $1.5 million worth of piching to me if he can make 25 to 30 starts and sustain those number...this might not be that bad of a deal

Except, as HGM noted, there are incentives at 18 starts, so at 25 to 30 starts he's not a $1.5 million pitcher. I really thought a minor league deal would be enough to get him, and I'd have signed him for that. Cleveland is much more optimistic than I am.

They are probably also more informed, so...

[Swampdog]

Those look like about $1.5 million worth of piching to me if he can make 25 to 30 starts and sustain those number...this might not be that bad of a deal

I can't agree with this statement. If Pavano makes 30 starts with an ERA+ of 77, he would be among the very worst (if not the worst) starting pitchers in baseball in 2009.

And, as previously noted, he would then be earning close to 7 million dollars. Keep in mind, Pavano pitched a total of 34 innings in 2008, and only 11 in 2007. I think it's clear that the Indians are hoping Pavano will improve, perform more in line with his performance of 2003-2004.

[RedsoxRockies]

DeRosa was an excellent pick-up, and it allows them to significantly improve their defense, shifting Peralta to third and Asdrubal Cabrera to short.


Take that back.

EBGJHBCQSDVK *smacks head* I have no clue how I left him out

[Wassit3]

I can't agree with this statement. If Pavano makes 30 starts with an ERA+ of 77, he would be among the very worst (if not the worst) starting pitchers in baseball in 2009.

And, as previously noted, he would then be earning close to 7 million dollars. Keep in mind, Pavano pitched a total of 34 innings in 2008, and only 11 in 2007. I think it's clear that the Indians are hoping Pavano will improve, perform more in line with his performance of 2003-2004.

based on what? obviously here is a lst, from s quick survey of baseballreference.com of starting pitchers with similiar ERA+ and their salaries:

Year Player Team Salary ERA+ Starts
2007 Jason Jennings Houston*Astros $5,500,000 68 18
2008 Jason Jennings Texs Rangers $4,000,000 51 6
2007 Steve Traschel Baltimore*Orioles $3,000,000 78 29
2008 Steve Traschel Baltimore*Orioles $1,500,000 54 10
2006 Carlos Silva Minn Twins $3,200,000 75 33
2008 Carlos Silva Seattle*Mariners $8,250,000 65 28
2008 Brian Bannister KC Royals $421,000 74 32


so how is $1.5 mill not about right for an ERA+ pitcher???

[Swampdog]

based on what? obviously here is a lst, from s quick survey of baseballreference.com of starting pitchers with similiar ERA+ and their salaries:

Year Player Team Salary ERA+ Starts
2007 Jason Jennings Houston*Astros $5,500,000 68 18
2008 Jason Jennings Texs Rangers $4,000,000 51 6
2007 Steve Traschel Baltimore*Orioles $3,000,000 78 29
2008 Steve Traschel Baltimore*Orioles $1,500,000 54 10
2006 Carlos Silva Minn Twins $3,200,000 75 33
2008 Carlos Silva Seattle*Mariners $8,250,000 65 28
2008 Brian Bannister KC Royals $421,000 74 32


so how is $1.5 mill not about right for an ERA+ pitcher???

Well, 1.5 million is about right for a pitcher who was once pretty good, but hasn't pitched especially well for 3 years, has been hurt over the same 3 years (averaged less than 50 innings per year), and is 33 years old. The point is....the Indians are hoping he will bounce back, stay healthy, and produce. Then, if he does, he will be paid 7 million. Conversely, if he continues to have a reservation on the DL, and pitches a few bad innings, then Cleveland made a relatively low investment.

The players you list....that supports precisely what I'm saying here. Look at them...

Jennings went 9-13 3.78 (but 130 ERA+ in 32 starts) with Col in 2006, earning 4.5 mil. He was traded to Hou for 2007, where he totally tanked, 2-9, 6.45 (68 ERA+ in 18 starts) for 5.5 mil. He became a free agent, and the Rangers took a chance, signing him for 4 mil, and look what they got; 0-5, 8.46 ERA (51 ERA+ in 6 starts).

Not to go into unnecessary detail, but Silva was great in 2005, got a raise, then bombed in 2006. He bounced back somewhat in 2007, became a free agent, and the Mariners made a splendid signing, giving Silva 8 million for a 4-15, 6.46 (65 ERA+ in 28 starts). In fact, I would say that Silva was the worst starting pitcher in the AL in 2008.

Point is, do you think the Mariners would have signed Silva if they had known how poorly he was going to perform? Hell no (we would all like to say, but it IS Seattle we're talking about). Would ANY team give a pitcher 8 million for that type of year? Of course not. I have no doubt that Houston regrets paying Jennings the 5.5 mil in 2007, just like the Rangers must be kicking themselves for wasting 8½ million on Jennings in 2008.

Bannister was very good in 2007, got a raise, then tanked in 2008. Nothing special about that.

My point is simply this: If Pavano makes 30 starts for Cle in 2009, with an ERA+ of 77, he will be viewed the very same as Silva and Jennings are, a total freaking disaster (at least, up to this point, since they may rebound in the future).

Why not post records and salaries of pitchers who made far, far less than Silva and Bannister and Jennings, and were far more productive? There are many of them.

Like I said, the Indians hope for better from Pavano.

[Swampdog]

OK, I was curious, so I checked the final stats from 2008, American League only. I wondered who was the worst starting pitcher in the league. In this care, the "worst" is the guy who started a lot of games with a really low ERA+. Rough calculations, of course. I looked for a minimum of 20 starts, with an ERA+ below 80, and found the following, in no particular order:

Pitcher/team starts ERA+ W/L ERA
1 Olson Bal 26 68 9-10 6.65
2 Burres Bal 22 75 7-10 6.04
3 Silva Sea 28 65 4-15 6.46
4 Batista Sea 20 67 4-14 6.26
5 Robertson Det 28 70 7-11 6.35
6 Rogers Det 30 78 9-13 5.70
7 Hochevar KC 22 77 6-12 5.51
8 Bannister Cle 32 74 9-16 5.76
9 Hernandez MN 23 74 10-8 5.48

Based on this, I would say that Silva was the worst starting pitcher in the AL last year. Surely, you can't be saying that the Indians would be happy with a Silva-like performance from Pavano in 2009, right? Looking over this list, Pavano wouldn't be the worst pitcher in 2009 (assuming 30 starts and a 77 ERA+), but he would be among the worst in the league.

[RickD]

Pavano...someone signed him.....wow talk about getting a lemon...he'll get injured in the first game....hangnail or something.....and be gone the rest of the year!

[HoustonGM]

I can't agree with this statement. If Pavano makes 30 starts with an ERA+ of 77, he would be among the very worst (if not the worst) starting pitchers in baseball in 2009.

Which is about a replacement-level performance, which is relatively worth it...IF one forgot about the incentives.

[Swampdog]

Which is about a replacement-level performance, which is relatively worth it...IF one forgot about the incentives.

That isnt the discussion though. This is the statement that I disagree with:

Those look like about $1.5 million worth of piching to me if he can make 25 to 30 starts and sustain those number...this might not be that bad of a deal

Now, one last time. A pitcher who starts 30 games with an ERA+ of 77 is not helping his team. He is hurting his team. No GM would intentionally pay a guy 7 million to put up these numbers. Actually, they would not pay him 1 million to put up these numbers. The only value this type of pitcher has is that of a mop-up type....pitching here and there in long/mid relief in games already decided. This guy does not help a team making 30 starts.

Of course, if Pavano pitches that poorly (77 ERA+), he surely won't make 30 starts. Thats the gamble the Indians are taking. A relatively small investment, hoping that he performs better, and if he does, then they would be quite willing to pay more for better production.