Definitely.
Do it.
Relax, I've seen worse.
Definitely.
Do it.
"Baseball statistics are a lot like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything."-Toby Harrah
"It's hard to look pissed off eating Apple Jacks."-Sh*t my Dad Says
o
Barring a ridiculous amount of wins, or a ridiculous season from a closer (think more ridiculous than Eric Gagne's best), OR a massive change in the voting populace, no.Originally Posted by Pavelb1
No, we didn't "almost" this year. Sabathia placed 6th but was not close at all.
Song of Solomon 5:4
Sounds interesting HGM... I'm guessing you won't be picking Zoilo Versailles as 1965 AL MVP
o
I haven't looked closely at it, but while Zoilo Versailles may be the worst player to ever win an MVP award, that doesn't mean that it wasn't deserved. He had an excellent season that year and it was a down year for the rest of the league.Sounds interesting HGM... I'm guessing you won't be picking Zoilo Versailles as 1965 AL MVP
Song of Solomon 5:4
http://www.baseball-reference.com/aw...65.shtml#ALmvp
Most of the other guys on that voting list IMO would make better MVPs for that year (including Tony Conigliaro... no idea why he came in dead last)
o
You have to account for Zoilo being a shortstop and having a great season with the glove. WARP1 places him at 11.1. A random sampling of the other top MVP candidates:
Tony Coniglario: 6.6
Brooks Robinson: 7.3
Tony Oliva: 10.3
Rocky Colavito: 8.1
Carl Yastrzemski: 6.4
Now, obviously, that's just one stat, and only a handful of the league's players, so I might have a different answer once I dig into the numbers (which won't be for a while, as I'm working backwards), but a quick look leads me to believe that the voters got it right that year. Zoilo had an excellent year with the bat for a SS - 115 OPS+ - and combined it with great durability and excellent defense.
o
2007:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
Only one disagreement again, this time with the NL MVP. The BBWAA awarded Jimmy Rollins the NL MVP award in 2007. At the time, I said it was because he held the best story, and I still stand by that. Had the non-David Wright Mets not sucked in September (when Wright was mashing the ball), David Wright would've likely taken home the hardware in real life. However, the BBWAA places undue "value" on teammate performance, and thus, Jimmy Rollins (who's in my top 10, but not my top 5) won. Wright combined excellent hitting (second to Hanley Ramirez in VORP) with fantastic hot corner defense (first in Fielding Runs Above Replacement amongst my group of contenders). He paced the group in Wins Above Replacement by nearly 1.5 wins (12 to Matt Holliday's 10.5). His combination of offense and defense at a skill position leads me to give him the 2007 MVP.
Song of Solomon 5:4
Yeah! Go David Wright
o
2006:
AL MVP: Derek Jeter
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy: Johan Santana
NL Cy: Brandon Webb
So, I agreed on both the Cy Young's, but disagreed on both the MVP's. I had Brandon Webb slightly ahead of Roy Oswalt, and when I checked to see how the real life Cy voting came out, I was surprised to see that Trevor Hoffman nearly won! Now, Hoffman surely had a fine season, one of his best, but he got 12 first place votes, compared to Webb's 15, which I find absurd. Chris Carpenter got 2 of his own, and Oswalt got 3, but Carpenter placed 3rd ahead of Oswalt by a good margin. I guess this just goes to show that maybe the general populace is rapidly becoming smarter when it comes to closers. The poor showing of Francisco Rodriguez in the awards balloting, plus his relatively small contract (compared to what he was seeking) would confirm this.
At any rate, my disagreements with the MVPs. Justin Morneau nearly became a two-time MVP winner this year. While we're getting smarter when it comes to relievers, I think we're still stuck in the "RBI is king" mindset. Morneau, in both 2006 and 2008, was not the best player on his own team. That title goes to Joe Mauer, their All-Star catcher who gets on base a ton in front of Morneau, enabling Morneau to rack up nice RBI numbers. At any rate, Mauer wasn't my MVP, Derek Jeter was. He placed a close second in the real life voting. He had a phenomenal offensive season for a shortstop, and the numbers also say he had one of his better defensive seasons.
Over in the NL, Pujols has now gotten 2 of my 3 MVP awards. Ryan Howard had the nicer HR-RBI numbers, but Pujols had a higher OBP and SLG, as well as a significantly higher OPS+. Add that to the fact that Pujols is the best first basemen defensively in the league, while Howard is among the worst, and I think Pujols got ripped in that award by Howard (as he nearly did in 2008 as well!).
o
2005:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Derrek Lee
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL Cy Young: Roger Clemens
Only agreed on one award here, the AL MVP. In the NL, I love Pujols, but Lee just had a slightly better season. He had a slightly better bat, slightly better glove, about equal on the basepaths...Career year, but the most valuable player in the NL. The AL Cy Young going to Bartolo Colon was, in my opinion, a great travesty, and goes to show just how much the Win has a stranglehold on mainstream pitcher evaluation. The only statistic that Santana trailed Colon in was wins. In every meaningful statistic, Santana trounced Colon. He had a better ERA, ERA+, WHIP, more strikeouts, better VORP, better WARP, better EVERYTHING. Santana was the clear best pitcher in the AL, but because he didn't get wins, he lost out on the award (and actually placed 3rd, behind Mariano Rivera as well). In the NL, Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, and Roy Oswalt all had phenomenal seasons and racked up more innings than Roger Clemens, but the sheer quality of Roger's innings puts him ahead of them, in my opinion (I also have Andy Pettite slightly ahead of that group). Clemens had a 226 ERA+, Pettitte was at 177. Oswalt, Carpenter, and Willis had ERA+'s of 144, 151, and 149, respectively. It's a pretty significant gap, one that is not made up by 20-30 innings.
Resident Canuck
Ew, Yankees winning the HGM MVP award in 3 straight years.
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o
2004:
AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
NL MVP: Barry Bonds
AL Cy: Johan Santana
NL Cy: Randy Johnson
Only one disagreement this year, with the NL Cy Young. Again, Roger Clemens having won it shows the overemphasize on wins and losses. Clemens went 18-4. Johnson went an ugly 16-14. So because the Diamondbacks were absolutely terrible (51-111 overall), Clemens was given the award for being a better pitcher, even though Randy Johnson tossed 30 more innings, had an ERA+ 30 points higher, struck out 70 more batters, walked 30 less batters, had a WHIP 26 points better, etc.
o
2003:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Barry Bonds
AL Cy: Roy Halladay
NL Cy: Eric Gagne
2003 was the toughest year for me to assess so far, but in the end, I wound up agreeing with all four of the BBWAA choices.
Off the top of my head, I didn't think I'd have any trouble with the two MVP awards. The NL, obviously, was a no-doubter, but the AL turned out tougher than I expected, largely due to a player nobody probably expects, that placed 10th in the real life voting...Bret Boone. Boone had a phenomenal year. I really struggled between him and A-Rod. Their value is much closer than it at first appears once you consider ballpark and defense...However, I felt that it'd bending over backwards with park factors to give the award to Boone, and eventually settled on A-Rod.
I also had quite a struggle with the AL Cy Young. At first glance, I chose Halladay. After examining the numbers a little closer, I changed my choice to Tim Hudson. After deeply looking into the numbers, I changed again to Esteban Loaiza. All the while, Pedro Martinez was lurking their with his ridiculous year on a per-inning basis, but never really entered the race stronger than that due to his lack of innings. Loaiza comes out surprisingly well in a number of stats, leading the pack in VORP, WARP1, and Pitching Runs Above Replacement. However, in the end, I couldn't look past Halladay's 266 innings and 9 complete games.
2003 Eric Gagne is the type of season I need to give a closer Cy Young consideration, and I think it was a fantastic enough season to give him the award outright. Jason Schmidt and Mark Prior both had excellent seasons, no doubt, but Gagne led them in Win Probability Added, and just had silly numbers.
o
2002:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Barry Bonds
AL Cy: Pedro Martinez
NL Cy: Randy Johnson
Two agreements, two disagreements. The MVP award going to Miguel Tejada over Alex Rodriguez in real life is another piece of evidence in the way that the BBWAA places a premium on teammate performance. A-Rod and Tejada both man the same position, and A-Rod literally did EVERYTHING better than him. But, alas, Tejada had the support of the Big Three, while A-Rod was supported by crap, so that means Tejada did more to help Oakland win than A-Rod did to help Texas win.
The AL Cy Young caused me some grief. I wavered between Pedro and Derek Lowe. Lowe has an innings advantage (as does Barry Zito, but Lowe has a significant edge in quality over Zito), but I have to give it to Pedro on the back of the sheer quality of his pitching.
Vigilante
Thank you HGM! I've been waiting for Pedro's 2002 Cy Young for years! Now how many more is he going to win?
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