MLB.com Top 50 Prospects

[Pavelb1]

Frigging Rays....I'm going on record right now. They will repeat as AL East champs.

[HoustonGM]

To highlight the rediculousness of these kind of rankings

Why are prospect rankings "ridiculous"?

I'd venture 80-90% of those names never have a quality season 'full' season in the pros.

Very doubtful. I'd go through and figure it out, but, I don't feel like it. Needless to say, these are prospect rankings, so yes, that does mean that some of the players don't have much of a pro track record, but that IS factored into the rankings.

[Arctic Blast]

Why are prospect rankings "ridiculous"?


Very doubtful. I'd go through and figure it out, but, I don't feel like it. Needless to say, these are prospect rankings, so yes, that does mean that some of the players don't have much of a pro track record, but that IS factored into the rankings.

Uhhh, I don't think dickay's saying anything about what they've DONE in the pros...he's referring to the fact that most of them WON'T do anything in the pros.

And he's probably right.

[HoustonGM]

Uhhh, I don't think dickay's saying anything about what they've DONE in the pros...he's referring to the fact that most of them WON'T do anything in the pros.

And he's probably right.

I just re-read his statement, and I read it wrong. I read it as "I'd venture 80-90% of those names never have HAD a quality season 'full' season in the pros."

And yes, that's more accurate, although I have no clue about what the actual figure is, but yes, most of them won't, but that doesn't make ranking prospects useless.

[dickay]

I just re-read his statement, and I read it wrong. I read it as "I'd venture 80-90% of those names never have HAD a quality season 'full' season in the pros."

And yes, that's more accurate, although I have no clue about what the actual figure is, but yes, most of them won't, but that doesn't make ranking prospects useless.

I think they are useless. They are fluff meant to give fans something to be hopeful for but I seriously question the background work put into them. I don't believe for a second that actual teams use this information, they have much more in depth reports on players so these are strictly for fans and is about the most useless information published.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

I think they are useless. They are fluff meant to give fans something to be hopeful for but I seriously question the background work put into them. I don't believe for a second that actual teams use this information, they have much more in depth reports on players so these are strictly for fans and is about the most useless information published.

It is clear that teams' dont use these as a basis for their analysis but also clear that sites like BA/MILB do put in work to obtain them.

For this list,all the players' concerned are top prospects & have been watched multiple times by various different scouts & annalists.It is here that bs occurs but when you get to lists produced of individual teams & their #15th prospect on....

Especially when the rankings are based on their tools rather than their actual performance (which is the ranking based on 08 draftees mainly who have ridiculously small sample sizes.)

Otherwise I agree that lists are for the fans but isnt that the role of these Baseball sites ?

[HoustonGM]

I think they are useless. They are fluff meant to give fans something to be hopeful for but I seriously question the background work put into them. I don't believe for a second that actual teams use this information, they have much more in depth reports on players so these are strictly for fans and is about the most useless information published.

The teams likely don't use THESE lists, but don't for a second think that they don't have their own prospect rankings. Baseball America's rankings come from a mix of their own scouts and information from the teams themselves.

[DarthJaker]

Two Cardinals
Colby Rasmus #10
Brett Wallace #42(He's fat lol)

[KowboyKoop]

Uhhh, I don't think dickay's saying anything about what they've DONE in the pros...he's referring to the fact that most of them WON'T do anything in the pros.

And he's probably right.

You don't think that even 10 of those players will have ONE decent season in the majors???? Not all prospects working out...but saying 40 of the top 50 prospects in baseball will turn into complete busts is a bit insane.

[dickay]

You don't think that even 10 of those players will have ONE decent season in the majors???? Not all prospects working out...but saying 40 of the top 50 prospects in baseball will turn into complete busts is a bit insane.

I actually think far less than 10 will, not insane at all IMO.

And I still think these are useless. I know teams have their own lists...i just don't think these lists for one are well researched and for two really tell the fan much of anything. With such a huge failure rate of prospects....what is there really to gain with such a list?

[HoustonGM]

I actually think far less than 10 will, not insane at all IMO.

Let's do a quick check here. Here's one top prospect list from 2002.

Of the top 50, I count 19 players that have never had a "quality season" and only 3 players that never made the MLB. (Joe Borchard, Boof Bonser, Chris Snelling, Alex Escobar, Nick Neugebauer, JR House, Kurt Ainsworth, Ricardo Rodriguez, Antonio Perez, Adam Johnson, Chin-Feng Chen, Dennis Tankersley, Jimmy Journell, Luis Terrero, Mike Restovich, Drew Henson and Jamal Strong, plus the 4 guys that haven't made the MLB - Ryan Anderson, Corwin Malone, and Ty Howington).

I count 21 players that have had significant major league careers, at least 10 of whom have had multiple "star level" seasons. (Casey Kotchman , Juan Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips, Hank Blalock, Carl Crawford, Mike Cuddyer, Nick Johnson, Brett Myers, plus the stars: Mark Texieria, Josh Beckett,Mark Prior, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Joe Mauer, Adam Wainwright, Justin Morneau, Jake Peavy). The other players are guys like Angel Berroa or Jerome Williams who have had a quality season but little else.

This tells me that you're grossly incorrect in your assessment of these lists. The overwhelming majority of players that make top prospect lists go on to have some form of a Major League career, and a good percentage of them go on to have a quality or better career. So, yeah, I do think it's basically insane to say that "far less than 10" of this top 50 list will ever have a quality major league season.

And I still think these are useless. I know teams have their own lists...i just don't think these lists for one are well researched and for two really tell the fan much of anything.

Baseball America, the top "prospect list" producer, spends all season long scouting and collecting information on prospects, and then spends all winter putting together their lists. While there's undoubtedly prospect lists out there by people that don't have much research put into them, it's borderline slander to say that the major top prospect lists (John Sickels, BA, Keith Law, etc.) aren't well-researched.

As for what they tell the fan, they tell the fan information about the top minor league players in the game. Also, they provide topics for discussion, which is never useless. Maybe you're not interested in prospects, but a very large portion of baseball fans are.

With such a huge failure rate of prospects....what is there really to gain with such a list?

Prospects in general have a high failure rate. Players good enough to make top prospect lists generally have a solid success rate, as the 2001 list above shows.

[Arctic Blast]

You don't think that even 10 of those players will have ONE decent season in the majors???? Not all prospects working out...but saying 40 of the top 50 prospects in baseball will turn into complete busts is a bit insane.

I don't entirely agree with that. I think the figure of 10 panning out in to top notch players and pitchers is probably about right. I think some others will turn out to be nice platoon guys or very good bench players. Some of the high profile starting pitching prospects will end up as very good, consistent middle relievers. However, I think 10/50 making it as big as they're hyped to be is probably dead on.

[DarthJaker]

Henson Made the Majors he has a .111 average but retired to play in the NFL

[KowboyKoop]

Let's do a quick check here. Here's one top prospect list from 2002.

Of the top 50, I count 19 players that have never had a "quality season" and only 4 players that never made the MLB. (Joe Borchard, Boof Bonser, Chris Snelling, Alex Escobar, Nick Neugebauer, JR House, Kurt Ainsworth, Ricardo Rodriguez, Antonio Perez, Adam Johnson, Chin-Feng Chen, Dennis Tankersley, Jimmy Journell, Luis Terrero, Mike Restovich, and Jamal Strong, plus the 4 guys that haven't made the MLB - Ryan Anderson, Corwin Malone, Drew Henson, and Ty Howington).

I count 21 players that have had significant major league careers, at least 10 of whom have had multiple "star level" seasons. (Casey Kotchman , Juan Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips, Hank Blalock, Carl Crawford, Mike Cuddyer, Nick Johnson, Brett Myers, plus the stars: Mark Texieria, Josh Beckett,Mark Prior, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Joe Mauer, Adam Wainwright, Justin Morneau, Jake Peavy). The other players are guys like Angel Berroa or Jerome Williams who have had a quality season but little else.

This tells me that you're grossly incorrect in your assessment of these lists. The overwhelming majority of players that make top prospect lists go on to have some form of a Major League career, and a good percentage of them go on to have a quality or better career. So, yeah, I do think it's basically insane to say that "far less than 10" of this top 50 list will ever have a quality major league season.


Baseball America, the top "prospect list" producer, spends all season long scouting and collecting information on prospects, and then spends all winter putting together their lists. While there's undoubtedly prospect lists out there by people that don't have much research put into them, it's borderline slander to say that the major top prospect lists (John Sickels, BA, Keith Law, etc.) aren't well-researched.

As for what they tell the fan, they tell the fan information about the top minor league players in the game. Also, they provide topics for discussion, which is never useless. Maybe you're not interested in prospects, but a very large portion of baseball fans are.


Prospects in general have a high failure rate. Players good enough to make top prospect lists generally have a solid success rate, as the 2001 list above shows.

I was coming here to make pretty much this exact same post. Scary.

[HoustonGM]

Henson Made the Majors he has a .111 average but retired to play in the NFL

You're right. Fixed my post.

I don't entirely agree with that. I think the figure of 10 panning out in to top notch players and pitchers is probably about right. I think some others will turn out to be nice platoon guys or very good bench players. Some of the high profile starting pitching prospects will end up as very good, consistent middle relievers. However, I think 10/50 making it as big as they're hyped to be is probably dead on.

This isn't a bad assessment. However, say that 10/50 make it just as they're "hyped" to...There will also be some that surpass their "hype" (and some that never come remotely close to reaching it, of course).

Dickay, though, is contending that less than 10 of these guys will ever have a decent major league season, and that's just....nowhere close to accurate.