Mussina thriving in steroid era has to count

[actionjackson]

Could the censor please gain a sense of context. I think what filihok was trying to say has something to do with Pedro becoming a chicken-fighting entrepreneur, but unfortunately he used the word c**k and the censor got all upset and left the species identity of the fighters Pedro was entrepreneuring for up to the wild imaginings of Mogulers everywhere.

[HoustonGM]

I think that Mussina, Smoltz, Brown, and Schilling are unquestionably amongst the 10 best pitchers of their era. Maddux, Johnson, Pedro, Clemens, and Glavine are obviously the top 5, then there's a gap, and then that group. I don't think it's odd that in the era of 30 teams with 5-man rotations there's 9/10 HOF starters.

I mean, take a look at the era around the late 1960s/1970s. Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichel, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Don Sutton, Catfish Hunter, Phil Niekro...That's 10 HOF starting pitchers right there...and there's MORE teams and players now.

Their lack of accolades and inability to perch themselves at the highest (I mean, top-5 to top-10 year in, year out) tier of baseball players at their position for an extended period of time leaves them out of the HOF in my mind.

I don't see how any of these players "lack accolades", but I that's a broad term so I won't bother with it. As for that second question, I'm bored, so here goes. For Brown, Schilling, Smoltz, and Mussina, I'm going to go through their careers and just quickly see how many years that a good argument could be made for them to be a top 5/top 10 pitcher in the major leagues.

Note, I'm not trying to "disprove" you or anything. You obviously believe in a much smaller Hall than I do (and I would say that you believe the Hall should be much smaller than it has been historically), and that's fine. I'm just trying to facilitate the discussion.

Brown:
Top 5: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003
Top 10: 1997

Schilling:
Top 5: 2001, 2004
Top 10: 1991, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003

Smoltz:
Top 5: 1996, 2003 (among relievers),
Top 10: 1995, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2006, 2007

Mussina:
Top 5: 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001
Top 10: 1999, 2000, 2006

And of course, you also can't ignore the other years in which these guys often came in the top 15/20. But, at any rate, I would think (but I haven't checked) that 6-8 years of top 5/10 performance compares favorably to the pitchers in the Hall of Fame.

Obviously its far from the "inner circle" level, but the Hall is for more than just those few elites. I think that all four of these pitchers meet or surpass the established standard of the Hall of Fame.

[justanewguy]

I think that Mussina, Smoltz, Brown, and Schilling are unquestionably amongst the 10 best pitchers of their era. Maddux, Johnson, Pedro, Clemens, and Glavine are obviously the top 5, then there's a gap, and then that group. I don't think it's odd that in the era of 30 teams with 5-man rotations there's 9/10 HOF starters.

I do.

I mean, take a look at the era around the late 1960s/1970s. Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichel, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Don Sutton, Catfish Hunter, Phil Niekro...That's 10 HOF starting pitchers right there...and there's MORE teams and players now.

Yes, and take a look at those names. The bottom 5 pitchers in the top 10 pitchers of the 90s weren't anywhere near as impressive as that bottom five. With the exception of probably Catfish Hunter and Juan Marichal, you're looking at 8 pitchers who are better than all but the top 3 pitchers of the 90s.

I'm going to say something you'll probably disagree with, but I think pitchers in THIS era and recent eras should face stricter standards than simply being top 10 pitchers. The value of the pitchers you listed was far greater (not as a ratio, but as a total) over the course of a season because of the innings. You just listed 10 guys who would regularly complete 20+ games a season and end up with 30 to 40 decisions. If a pitcher is only going every fifth day and is leaving the game in the 7th inning for reliever specialists, he'd better be able to put up some SICK numbers (Maddux, Pedro).

I don't see how any of these players "lack accolades", but I that's a broad term so I won't bother with it. As for that second question, I'm bored, so here goes. For Brown, Schilling, Smoltz, and Mussina, I'm going to go through their careers and just quickly see how many years that a good argument could be made for them to be a top 5/top 10 pitcher in the major leagues.

Brown, Mussina and Schilling never won Cy Youngs, for one thing. That group of four pitchers has a combined grand total of ONE Cy Young Award. To be quite honest, I think their careers look rather silly compared to Maddux, Pedro and Clemens. The only other pitchers I'm in favor of being HOFers from this era are Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. That's 7, and it's plenty for one decade. Mussina has the next best case, in my opinion. Very close, I could maybe be swayed. I'd put Schilling next, followed by Smoltz and Brown.

There were also a lot of pitchers during this time that had one or two amazing years (David Cone, etc.) that took turns annually outpitching the four guys you're arguing for.

Note, I'm not trying to "disprove" you or anything. You obviously believe in a much smaller Hall than I do (and I would say that you believe the Hall should be much smaller than it has been historically), and that's fine. I'm just trying to facilitate the discussion.

Yes, I believe in a pretty small Hall. I'd go for up to roughly 10 pitchers in one decade, regardless of teams (the cream rises to the top either way, more players in the league doesn't mean there's more HOF deserving players). Position players are a bit different, because there's a lot of different types of specialization (Ozzie Smith) that can get a guy in.

Brown:
Top 5: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003
Top 10: 1997

Schilling:
Top 5: 2001, 2004
Top 10: 1991, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003

Smoltz:
Top 5: 1996, 2003 (among relievers),
Top 10: 1995, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2006, 2007

Mussina:
Top 5: 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001
Top 10: 1999, 2000, 2006

The number of top 5s aren't that impressive for HOF arguments, really... none of these guys ever put up numbers like Pedro or Johnson did that could offset their lack of perennial highest tier performance and lack of ridiculous career totals.

And of course, you also can't ignore the other years in which these guys often came in the top 15/20.

If we're talking about the Hall, I can.

But, at any rate, I would think (but I haven't checked) that 6-8 years of top 5/10 performance compares favorably to the pitchers in the Hall of Fame.

Probably, but again:

1) TOTAL value for these pitchers doesn't compare to TOTAL value of the Marichals of the past, let alone the Jim Palmers.
2) None of these guys put up numbers that blew my mind, and only one of them ever won a Cy Young award
3) Looking at top 10 alone, 6 to 8 years of that (with a top 5 or 2 sprinkled in throughout) makes a pitcher borderline at best in my mind.

Obviously its far from the "inner circle" level, but the Hall is for more than just those few elites. I think that all four of these pitchers meet or surpass the established standard of the Hall of Fame.

The stalemate of this conversation basically lies in the definition of a Hall of Famer.

[HoustonGM]

Yes, and take a look at those names. The bottom 5 pitchers in the top 10 pitchers of the 90s weren't anywhere near as impressive as that bottom five. With the exception of probably Catfish Hunter and Juan Marichal, you're looking at 8 pitchers who are better than all but the top 3 pitchers of the 90s.

Only if you don't adjust for era. Which I'm getting into right below...

I'm going to say something you'll probably disagree with, but I think pitchers in THIS era and recent eras should face stricter standards than simply being top 10 pitchers. The value of the pitchers you listed was far greater (not as a ratio, but as a total) over the course of a season because of the innings. You just listed 10 guys who would regularly complete 20+ games a season and end up with 30 to 40 decisions. If a pitcher is only going every fifth day and is leaving the game in the 7th inning for reliever specialists, he'd better be able to put up some SICK numbers (Maddux, Pedro).

But that's penalizing pitchers because of the era they play in. I don't think that's how the Hall of Fame should judge players. The Hall should honor the best players, as compared to their era.

Really, if you want to extend this argument to its logical conclusion, none of these pitchers are HOF worthy because compared to the value of pitchers in the 1890s, these guys are nothing. Those guys threw 60 games, completed all of them, 500-600 innings.

I think it's absolutely necessary to adjust for era.

Brown, Mussina and Schilling never won Cy Youngs, for one thing. That group of four pitchers has a combined grand total of ONE Cy Young Award.

Brown should've won the Cy over Smoltz in 1996, but your statement would still be correct. But this is because...

To be quite honest, I think their careers look rather silly compared to Maddux, Pedro and Clemens.

Yep, and add Johnson to that list. But, that's comparing these pitchers to 3 pitchers with legitimate cases for being in the top-10 EVER, and 1 who had the best peak ever. I don't think it's fair to penalize players that are certainly deserving of the Hall of Fame based on its standards just because those players careers happened to coincide with 3-4 of the greatest pitchers ever.

The only other pitchers I'm in favor of being HOFers from this era are Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. That's 7, and it's plenty for one decade. Mussina has the next best case, in my opinion. Very close, I could maybe be swayed. I'd put Schilling next, followed by Smoltz and Brown.

Hoffman and Rivera will certainly get in, but I don't agree at all with Hoffman. Plus, relief pitchers are really now a separate category from starting pitchers.

I don't see how a pitcher with an ERA+ of 144 in 988 innings (Hoffman) is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than pitchers with 3,500 innings of 127 ERA+ pitching.

It'd take a real ridiculous level of pitching for me to support a modern-day closer of being Hall-worthy simply because of the extreme lack of innings. Rivera is the only closer of today that I would support for the Hall, simply because his level was phenomenal. Hoffman had one year with an ERA+ better than Rivera's career ERA+.

There were also a lot of pitchers during this time that had one or two amazing years (David Cone, etc.) that took turns annually outpitching the four guys you're arguing for.

Which I don't see as a reason against these guys.

The number of top 5s aren't that impressive for HOF arguments, really... none of these guys ever put up numbers like Pedro or Johnson did that could offset their lack of perennial highest tier performance and lack of ridiculous career totals.

Again, Pedro and Johnson are two all-time greats.

If we're talking about the Hall, I can.

Sure, you could. I think that's an extremely limited view of the Hall though, and it certainly isn't in line with the tradition of the Hall. Total career valu

1) TOTAL value for these pitchers doesn't compare to TOTAL value of the Marichals of the past

Only if you don't era-adjust. I'm gonna list the career WARP totals of Johnson, Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, Glavine, Smoltz, Brown, Schilling, Mussina, and then the 1970's guys that I listed, mostly because I'm curious. That'll come in my next post, which might not come til later tonight.

2) None of these guys put up numbers that blew my mind, and only one of them ever won a Cy Young award

I just don't think that the Hall of Fame should be limited to the "mind-blowers" and the award winners. Like I said, the Hall has never operated the way you seem to advocate, and while I respect your opinion of a small hall, I just can't agree with it. Mussina, Smoltz, Schilling, and Brown do meet the level of excellence established by the Hall already.

3) Looking at top 10 alone, 6 to 8 years of that (with a top 5 or 2 sprinkled in throughout) makes a pitcher borderline at best in my mind.

Along with the WARP totals, I'm going to do the same "exercise" for the 1970s guys I listed. Like I said, that'll come tonight. Supernatural is about to start.

The stalemate of this conversation basically lies in the definition of a Hall of Famer.

True.

By the way, I think this is an appropriate time to just say that I truly appreciate and enjoy my discussions and depands with you, justanewguy. We don't always agree, but I appreciate how you make well-reasoned arguments AND you're consistent with your opinions. It's really a joy to discuss baseball with you.

[ragecage]

I think what makes Hall of Famers who they are outside the numbers is if you can tell the story of Baseball and mention these players, (you have to have the numbers as well). You can do that with all the players mentioned except for Brown and Mussina.

You cant go without mentioning the Braves Dynasty with Maddux, Smotlz, and Glavine and all three are HOFers, with Maddux's dominance, Glavine being one of the great lefties, and Smoltz is dominate in the playoffs, and has a good amount of both saves and wins.

Schilling is a hall of famer for his playoff performances with the Phillies back in '94, the D'Backs in '02, and his heroic performances in Boston. He doesnt have the regular season numbers so much, but enough so that deserves serious consideration. Think of him as the Bill Mazeroski of pitchers.

You cant say these things with Mussina however, since he became a Yankee, I do believe he hasnt won a World Series ring, and say what you want, in New York, with the payrolls and talent they had, inexcusable. I cant even recall a memorable pitching performance in the postseason besides the one he had in Baltimore where he struck out like 14 batters or something in that range. The thing that would get him in if I had a vote, is 300 wins however. Thats like 3000 hits, automatic induction.

One more thing, for Yankee fans thinking im hating, Andy Pettite deserves to be in, hes almost like Schilling and you cant mention Yankee titles in the 90's without Andy Pettites name being as a nasty postseason pitcher.

[justanewguy]

But that's penalizing pitchers because of the era they play in. I don't think that's how the Hall of Fame should judge players. The Hall should honor the best players, as compared to their era.

If another black player had slipped into the MLB before Jackie Robinson did, AND if there had been a couple of better 2Bs in the early 50s, there's no way Jackie Robinson would be a HOFer. But he would have done practically the same stuff.

It may be "penalizing" them, but if not for players like George Brett and Dave Winfield and Rod Carew, among others, wouldn't Jim Rice have a much better HOF case (he could be considered a lock, even)? The inverse could also be true. Players could be theoretically rewarded for injuries to or lack of performance from other players. Maybe Todd Van Poppel's busted career and Doc Gooden's cocaine habit clear some HOF room for another pitcher. It's a matter of hindsight. How HOF-worthy would Ozzie Smith be if there had been an even BETTER fielding SS, maybe two, that were doing backflips on the infield dirt during his time?

Really, if you want to extend this argument to its logical conclusion, none of these pitchers are HOF worthy because compared to the value of pitchers in the 1890s, these guys are nothing. Those guys threw 60 games, completed all of them, 500-600 innings.

And the HOF-worthy ones are in, and the ones who aren't didn't put up good enough numbers AND weren't at the top of their era aren't in for those reasons. It's a two-pronged thing: historical value AND era-relative value.

Yep, and add Johnson to that list. But, that's comparing these pitchers to 3 pitchers with legitimate cases for being in the top-10 EVER, and 1 who had the best peak ever. I don't think it's fair to penalize players that are certainly deserving of the Hall of Fame based on its standards just because those players careers happened to coincide with 3-4 of the greatest pitchers ever.

That's a good argument, but should Maddux, Pedro, Clemens and Johnson really be allowed to be so "above" their era that they shouldn't still be considered as players that were better than the other pitchers of their time? They're better, they're bodies, and when combined with the slew of great pitchers we saw in the 90s that were good for their careers and OUTSTANDING for a couple of seasons, I just think guys like Smoltz and Brown get lost. Great pitchers though they were, there were ALWAYS several pitchers who were better at any given time.

Hoffman and Rivera will certainly get in, but I don't agree at all with Hoffman. Plus, relief pitchers are really now a separate category from starting pitchers.

A career 144 ERA+ and an all time career record in a major stat are enough for me. And I put Rivera at #1 on my AL Reliever of the Year ballot, so I'm not trying to glorify the save, but it serves its purpose, and Hoffman's ability to be the (theoretically) highest leverage reliever on his team and perform so well in that role for such a long time is absolutely worthy, in my opinion.

And Rivera is the greatest reliever ever, so, of course he's a lock.

I don't see how a pitcher with an ERA+ of 144 in 988 innings (Hoffman) is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than pitchers with 3,500 innings of 127 ERA+ pitching.

If it's really a separate category, as you said, then you should see how.

It'd take a real ridiculous level of pitching for me to support a modern-day closer of being Hall-worthy simply because of the extreme lack of innings.

Keep the innings of the 60s/70s pitchers in mind then, compared to their 90s counterparts. Especially innings per season...

Only if you don't era-adjust. I'm gonna list the career WARP totals of Johnson, Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, Glavine, Smoltz, Brown, Schilling, Mussina, and then the 1970's guys that I listed, mostly because I'm curious. That'll come in my next post, which might not come til later tonight.

I'm looking forward to it, actually... and I'm curious to see how it turns out. I'd also like to see it FURTHER adjusted to reflect innings pitched. For a quick example, if a Pitcher A pitched 2000 innings in his career and Pitcher B pitched 1000 innings, Player A's WARP should be effectively doubled (though probably not ACTUALLY doubled), because he provided twice as much of that.

The pitching aspect of baseball is more of a team effort than it was back then, which to me says, yes... pitchers who threw more, regardless of whether or not it was a reflection of their era, should get more attention. If Ned Ninetiespitcher's WARP is a hair above Steve Sixtiespitcher's WARP, but Steve threw 1.5 times more innings, Steve gets the nod for me.

By the way, I think this is an appropriate time to just say that I truly appreciate and enjoy my discussions and depands with you, justanewguy. We don't always agree, but I appreciate how you make well-reasoned arguments AND you're consistent with your opinions. It's really a joy to discuss baseball with you.

Why is there no blush smilie?

But seriously, thanks, and I agree. Though you know more than I do, put more effort into it, do it far more sober, and generally "win," it's a joy for me as well.

[justanewguy]

I think what makes Hall of Famers who they are outside the numbers is if you can tell the story of Baseball and mention these players, (you have to have the numbers as well). You can do that with all the players mentioned except for Brown and Mussina.

Good point, and this is where I begin to question my own adamant opinion about these pitchers. However, I don't think there's enough "outside the numbers" stuff for Smoltz. Schilling does have an argument for that, but for me I'm not sure if it's enough to overcome his great-but-not-legendary numbers.

You cant go without mentioning the Braves Dynasty with Maddux, Smotlz, and Glavine and all three are HOFers, with Maddux's dominance, Glavine being one of the great lefties, and Smoltz is dominate in the playoffs, and has a good amount of both saves and wins.

It was great, and will go down in history, and all three WILL get in (it's just me, I don't agree with Smoltz), but I don't think that means all three SHOULD get in. Maddux is an absolute, and is an all time top 5 pitcher along with Clemens. Glavine is a total lock in my mind. But Smoltz... I can't get behind it.

Besides, all those years with "The Big Three" and they never won a championship. So if we're talking about "beyond the numbers," that's a bit of a knock on "The Big Three" ( ... edit: they DID win a championship, I stand embarrassingly corrected).

Schilling is a hall of famer for his playoff performances with the Phillies back in '94, the D'Backs in '02, and his heroic performances in Boston. He doesnt have the regular season numbers so much, but enough so that deserves serious consideration. Think of him as the Bill Mazeroski of pitchers.

And this is why Schilling creeps into my mind right behind Mussina (really outstanding career), but the combination of playoff performances, career numbers, and relative-to-his-era performance from Schilling just isn't enough to get him there for me. Close, but... no.

One more thing, for Yankee fans thinking im hating, Andy Pettite deserves to be in, hes almost like Schilling and you cant mention Yankee titles in the 90's without Andy Pettites name being as a nasty postseason pitcher.

I don't agree with him either.

[ragecage]

The Big Three did win a Championship, in 1995 against Cleveland if I remember correctly.

[justanewguy]

The Big Three did win a Championship, in 1995 against Cleveland if I remember correctly.

Shame on me.

Somehow I forgot that Maddux was on that team.

[ragecage]

I can see what you mean on those guys, I think one thing that can be agreed upon is Maddux and Glavine. I really think Schilling is a lock too, but I also think the money pitcher before Schilling was Jack Morris and he should be a lock too. But it hasnt worked that way and I wouldnt be surprised if Schil doesnt go either. Nor would I snort and fuss about it.

[HoustonGM]

I think what makes Hall of Famers who they are outside the numbers is if you can tell the story of Baseball and mention these players, (you have to have the numbers as well). You can do that with all the players mentioned except for Brown and Mussina.

I gotta disagree with most of this post. Postseason performance certainly deserves credit, but using it as the near be-all-and-end-all, no way.

If another black player had slipped into the MLB before Jackie Robinson did, AND if there had been a couple of better 2Bs in the early 50s, there's no way Jackie Robinson would be a HOFer. But he would have done practically the same stuff.

I think that's a special case considering he wasn't allowed to play in the majors during what really would've been his peak years. I'd give credit for that, and put him in the Hall based solely on his MLB work, regardless of whether or not he was the one to break the color barrier. He was a Hall of Fame talent.

may be "penalizing" them, but if not for players like George Brett and Dave Winfield and Rod Carew, among others, wouldn't Jim Rice have a much better HOF case (he could be considered a lock, even)?

I don't think so.

The inverse could also be true. Players could be theoretically rewarded for injuries to or lack of performance from other players. Maybe Todd Van Poppel's busted career and Doc Gooden's cocaine habit clear some HOF room for another pitcher. It's a matter of hindsight.

I'm not sure I follow this.

But at any rate, I think narrowing it down to specific player cases loses track of the overall point. The top pitchers nowadays throw 230 or so innings. That's just the way it is. The top pitchers in the 1970s threw upwards of 300 innings, yes. I don't think that because a pitcher today throws less innings than a pitcher of the 1970s means that today's pitchers have to be above and beyond those pitchers in terms of pure non-playing time performance. Pitchers have to be judged within the context of their times.

If in some hypothetical future, pitchers are used in an entirely different fashion and medical improvements allow for more wear and tear on the arm and the top pitchers throw 400 innings of work, a mediocre 400-inning pitcher of that day shouldn't have a better HOF case than a very good 230-inning pitcher of today's times.

The player should be compared to the other player's of his position in his era, and then the way he compares to his era should be compared to the way past players compared to their era. Generally speaking, if a pitcher today is 20% better than the pitchers of his time, and the average pitcher in the Hall of Fame is 20% better than the pitchers of their time, that player meets the standard of the average Hall of Famer, and I think that merits induction. I hope that made sense.

That's a good argument, but should Maddux, Pedro, Clemens and Johnson really be allowed to be so "above" their era that they shouldn't still be considered as players that were better than the other pitchers of their time?

I don't see how I'm doing that. Maddux/Pedro/Clemens/Johnson are clearly the top 4 of their era, and clearly above and beyond most pitchers in all of history. The Hall of Fame hasn't only honored the top 4/5 pitchers of his era. Generally, the Hall has honored those guys, plus a handful of other pitchers that weren't quite at the top of their era all the time, but were still outstanding pitchers. I don't think a different standard should be applied to this era, just because the top pitchers of this era were better than the usual top pitchers.

They're better, they're bodies, and when combined with the slew of great pitchers we saw in the 90s that were good for their careers and OUTSTANDING for a couple of seasons, I just think guys like Smoltz and Brown get lost. Great pitchers though they were, there were ALWAYS several pitchers who were better at any given time.

I think Smoltz, Brown, etc. are the "cream of the crop" of that slew of pitchers you mention. They had the best combined value of peak and career performance, while most of those pitchers either flamed out way too early or simply didn't have comparable peaks.

If it's really a separate category, as you said, then you should see how.

Nope, still don't, because putting in Hoffman opens the doors for a handful of other relievers where the only difference is the amount of saves.

Billy Wagner's thrown 818 innings, 180 ERA+. Dan Quissenberry threw 1,003.1 innings, 146 ERA+. John Franco threw 1,245.2 innings, 137 ERA+. Jeff Montgomery threw 868.2 innings, 134 ERA+. The only thing that separates Hoffman from that group of guys is the saves, and I, personally, don't base any evaluation of players on the save.

I'm looking forward to it, actually... and I'm curious to see how it turns out. I'd also like to see it FURTHER adjusted to reflect innings pitched. For a quick example, if a Pitcher A pitched 2000 innings in his career and Pitcher B pitched 1000 innings, Player A's WARP should be effectively doubled (though probably not ACTUALLY doubled), because he provided twice as much of that.

I added in Hoffman and Rivera to the list, and they do compare favorably (more so for Rivera) to the starting pitchers, despite the lack of innings, I presume because WARP compares relievers to other relievers (and may adjust for leverage, not sure).

The pitching aspect of baseball is more of a team effort than it was back then, which to me says, yes... pitchers who threw more, regardless of whether or not it was a reflection of their era, should get more attention.

I don't agree. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. WARP, as a counting stat, takes playing time into account. However, WARP compares players to their contemporaries....so (and this is just an extreme generalization) if the average starting pitcher in 1970 threw 300 innings at 100 ERA+, and the average starting pitcher in 2000 threw 200 innings at 100 ERA+, those players would have the same WARP assuming all other aspects of their performance were identical (at least as far as I understand WARP, I could be wrong).

Why is there no blush smilie?

Because I'm not ashamed. lol

I can see what you mean on those guys, I think one thing that can be agreed upon is Maddux and Glavine. I really think Schilling is a lock too, but I also think the money pitcher before Schilling was Jack Morris and he should be a lock too. But it hasnt worked that way and I wouldnt be surprised if Schil doesnt go either. Nor would I snort and fuss about it.

Jack Morris had one "money" game. His overall postseason stats were nothing special - 7-4, 3.80 ERA. If he didn't have that 10 inning performance, that man wouldn't get half the support he gets, I guarantee it. I think that game did more for Jack Morris's reputation than any other singular game did for any other player in history.

Also, Morris was a far, far worse pitcher than Schilling in the regular season.



Anyway, those WARP/top 5 and top 10 table, should be posted within an hour or so.

[HoustonGM]

You can make of that what you will.


Here is the top 5 / top 10 look;

Tom Seaver:
Top 5: 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977
Top 10: 1967, 1981

Jim Palmer:
Top 5: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978
Top 10: 1970, 1971, 1972, 1982

Bob Gibson:
Top 5: 1962, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972
Top 10: 1964, 1965

Juan Marichel:
Top 5: 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1969
Top 10: 1968

Gaylord Perry:
Top 5: 1967, 1970, 1972, 1974
Top 10: 1966, 1969, 1973

Steve Carlton:
Top 5: 1972, 1977, 1980, 1981
Top 10: 1969, 1982

Fergie Jenkins:
Top 5: 1967, 1970, 1971
Top 10: 1968, 1974, 1978

Don Sutton:
Top 5: 1972, 1980
Top 10: 1971, 1973

Catfish Hunter:
Top 5: 1972, 1974, 1975
Top 10:

Phil Niekro:
Top 5: 1974, 1978
Top 10: 1967, 1969

I'm going to redo the players I did before, because with the guys above I leaned more heavily on VORP, while I didn't consult VORP at all earlier. It shouldn't change the results too much, but I'm also going to add in the Big 5 of Clemens, Pedro, Maddux, Glavine, and Johnson, just for consistency's sake (and because I'm bored). I'll also do a chart compiling the top 5/10 finishes of all the players.

Randy Johnson:
Top 5: 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004
Top 10: 1998

Roger Clemens:
Top 5: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2005
Top 10: 1989

Greg Maddux:
Top 5: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001
Top 10:

Tom Glavine:
Top 5: 1991, 1998, 2000
Top 10: 1995, 1996, 1997

Pedro Martinez:
Top 5: 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003
Top 10: 2005

John Smoltz:
Top 5:
Top 10: 1996, 1999, 2005, 2006, 2007

Mike Mussina:
Top 5: 1992, 1994, 1995, 2001
Top 10: 1999, 2003

Curt Schilling:
Top 5: 2001, 2002, 2004
Top 10: 1992, 1998

Kevin Brown:
Top 5: 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000
Top 10: 1997, 2003

Note, for this ranking i used both VORP and my own slight adjustment in multiple cases (which is why in one case, 2000, 6 of the guys I have listed as top 5, as I felt there was no meaningful difference between two of them, although I forget which off the top of my head). Mussina looks a tiny bit worse as compared to my prior assessment, but according to VORP, he should've won two Cy Youngs - 1992 and 1994. Schilling looks a lot worse this time. Brown looks the same. Smoltz looks slightly worse.

At any rate, this "study" made me appreciate Gibson, Seaver and Palmer more than I had. Below is a table of the players and their Top 5 and Top 10 finishes. Top 10 includes the top 5 finishes as well (sorted by top 10):



This sort of study isn't very favorable to Glavine, who I think is a lot like Mussina, just with more career value. At any rate, it still appears to me that the Mussina/Smoltz/Schilling/Brown group fit squarely in with the Hall of Famers from the 1960s/1970s era. The 90s guys fit perfectly in with the non-elite (Gibson, Palmer, Seaver) 70s guys both in terms of times in the top 5 and in times in the top 10. For me, this strengthens my belief in all 4 as Hall of Famers. They're certainly not out of place at all among the current Hall of Famers.

[HoustonGM]

Coincidentally, Eric Seidman at Fangraphs just wrote an article about Kevin Brown.

[boomboom]

This chart goes to show you that Seaver, Clemens, Maddux and Johnson are in the top 5-6 of all time. Pedro had one of the best peaks of all time, up there with Koufax.

[HoustonGM]

This chart goes to show you that Seaver, Clemens, Maddux and Johnson are in the top 5-6 of all time.

I don't know about top 5/6 for all 4 of them. There's a lot of other great pitchers from prior to the 60's to contend with...Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Mordecai Brown, etc.