This year's Hall of Fame ballot

[HoustonGM]

Also, regarding JAWS and Peak WARP, I messaged the author back, and this is one of the big reasons I love BP - their writers respond to emails in detail AND quickly. Here's what Jay Jaffe responded to me with:

Hi Erik,

There are two reasons why what you're seeing won't match what's been
reported in an older article:

1. the data you're looking at on the DT cards is more recent than
what's in my spreadsheet, which was used for that article; I only
update once or twice a year, and Clay Davenport makes all kinds of
exceedingly minor tweaks in between that are too difficult to stay on
top of. New data will be forthcoming at the end of this month, with
some BIG changes in WARP that will render what you're looking at
somewhat outdated anyway ;-).

2. In the JAWS version of WARP, we assess a slight downward
adjustment to AL pitchers of the DH era so that they're not unfairly
aided relative to their NL and pre-DH counterparts by not having to
bat. This generally reduces a full season starter's line by 0.5 to
1.0 WARP relative to what you see on the cards.

Hope that helps. Look for updated JAWS stuff coming at the end of
this month. And thanks for reading.

Jay Jaffe
Author, Baseball Prospectus

off topic, but I'm excited for the big WARP changes

[RedsoxRockies]

So they are changing WARP? Cool

[HoustonGM]

Here's the official ballot:

2009 candidates
• Harold Baines
• Jay Bell
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Ron Gant
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Jesse Orosco
• Dave Parker
• Dan Plesac
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

[TheNamelessPoet]

Blyleven
henderson
Raines
2009 candidates
• Harold Baines888 No but OHHHH so close
• Jay Bell*** laughable
• Bert Blyleven *** Yes• David Cone
• Andre Dawson*** No
• Ron Gant*** No
• Mark Grace*** No (snicker)
• Rickey Henderson gee let me think
• Tommy John *** No but another good year or so and he might have been in
• Don Mattingly*** Here we go.... lets let the argumens fly... NO
• Mark McGwire*** No
• Jack Morris *** no (finny think is I ONLY remember him from 1 game in the WS and had no idea he played for Detroit so long lol
• Dale Murphy*** NO
• Jesse Orosco*** Laughable
• Dave Parker*** No
• Dan Plesac*** WHO!?!?!?
• Tim Raines *** Yes... (but I may be more favorible from the steals...)
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

[OldFatGuy]

Is it true the voters can vote for up to four???

If so, I guess my ballot would be:
Bert Blylevin
Rickey Henderson
Tommy John
Mark McGwire

Probably only one of those will actually get it though. I'm guessing Henderson won't have any difficulty.

[HoustonGM]

Is it true the voters can vote for up to four???

Voters can list up to ten names on their ballot.

My picks haven't changed from when I first made this thread - Blyleven, Henderson, McGwire, Raines, and Trammell.

[kenny1234]

Henderson, definitely yes. I'm on the fence with Raines, Blyleven and McGwire. If I was in a good mood, I'd probably vote yes for all three. As it is, not this year.

That said, I think Rice will get in this year, and probably Blyleven as well. Raines and McGwire won't get in this year.

[ragecage]

I would say no for Mattingly, now if he retired in 1990 due to his injury issues, you may have a "Dizzy Dean" argument for him. 1990-1995 he was mearly an average hitter, I think that hurt him and why he isnt in the Hall today.

[RedsoxRockies]

My choices stand as they were

[ragecage]

Henderson, McGwire, Blyleven, Raines

[HoustonGM]

I would say no for Mattingly, now if he retired in 1990 due to his injury issues, you may have a "Dizzy Dean" argument for him. 1990-1995 he was mearly an average hitter, I think that hurt him and why he isnt in the Hall today.

If he retired in 1990, he wouldn't have the minimum of 10 years

But, at any rate, I don't think his peak was good enough to warrant induction based solely on peak, and I honestly don't think Dizzy Dean's was either. Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Ralph Kiner...those are examples of guys with great enough peaks to warrant inclusion regardless of the rest of their careers.

[Pavelb1]

Blyleven
henderson
Raines
2009 candidates
• Harold Baines888 No but OHHHH so close
• Jay Bell*** laughable
• Bert Blyleven *** Yes• David Cone
• Andre Dawson*** No
• Ron Gant*** No
• Mark Grace*** No (snicker)
• Rickey Henderson gee let me think
• Tommy John *** No but another good year or so and he might have been in
• Don Mattingly*** Here we go.... lets let the argumens fly... NO
• Mark McGwire*** No
• Jack Morris *** no (finny think is I ONLY remember him from 1 game in the WS and had no idea he played for Detroit so long lol
• Dale Murphy*** NO
• Jesse Orosco*** Laughable
• Dave Parker*** No
• Dan Plesac*** WHO!?!?!?
• Tim Raines *** Yes... (but I may be more favorible from the steals...)
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

Why does Murphy get the emphatic NO? Did he hit you with a foul-ball and ask you if you had let Jesus into your life?

[RickD]

Here's the official ballot:

2009 candidates
• Harold Baines
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Dave Parker
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell

My original picks are all on the final ballot and still stands!

[ragecage]

If he retired in 1990, he wouldn't have the minimum of 10 years

But, at any rate, I don't think his peak was good enough to warrant induction based solely on peak, and I honestly don't think Dizzy Dean's was either. Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Ralph Kiner...those are examples of guys with great enough peaks to warrant inclusion regardless of the rest of their careers.

So you have to have 10 years of MLB experience to become eligible? I had no idea.

[HoustonGM]

So you have to have 10 years of MLB experience to become eligible? I had no idea.

Yes. In order to be eligible for the Hall, you have to have played in the majors in at least 10 separate years. They sometimes make exceptions, although I think the only exception they ever made was for Addie Joss.