And the NL centralwhere 4 teams had 86 or more wins
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And the NL centralwhere 4 teams had 86 or more wins
Dreamweaver
Originally Posted by FRENCHREDSOX
Yes the Royals have improved BUT still aren't strong enough to compete in the AL Central - which is,whether you like it or not,were they play.
I don't claim we'll be good enough to contend in the AL Central..at least not next year. I am claiming we can push for .500. I don't think that's a stretch. We've improved by 6+ games every year for the past three years...I see no reason why it can't happen again. I'm not saying we're going to do what the Rays did...but come on, 75 wins is far from being a horrible team...we could push towards .500 if Moore can find a decent corner OF bat especially.
The Jacobs for Nunez deal "interesting" & "weird",IMO.Firstly,it is not the "weakest" spot in the KC lineup - as they ALREADY had Butler/Shealy/Gload & Kila available for 2 spots.
Secondly,they dealt a arm (which in today's FA market) who could have netted them a more needed filler eg a middle infielder
I'd agree with that. I don't claim the trade to be some amazing trade or steal for us..but to say it's a bad one is going too far. We traded our fourth best reliever, one who is extremely injury prone (this is the biggest point I think everyone is missing....he looks malnourished when on the mound and his motion is violent) for potentially a decent power bat. It's not guaranteed to work..but we aren't giving up hardly anything...I don't see what is bad about that.
The positive spin though is Moore is dealing & Hillman is competent as a manager.As you said your SPs have potential but the minors,as Sickels reported :
Hillman is the furthest thing from a competent manager. He doesn't know the definition of a platoon split. He was AWFUL in his first year, the entire team lost respect for him midway though. He could improve..but he's considered a joke of a manager so far by those who really pay attention. His emphasis on small ball cost us so many runs last year, his bullpen management was the worst I've ever seen.....his dedication to Ross Gload was sickening.
& they lack top level guys WHO can play now (a la Bruce/Votto/Cueto for example).Seems to me that the team will be competitive but not before 2010 & EVEN then they will be in a difficult position as their young guys,like Greinke or Gordon,will be arb ready & be "looking" for a bumper L-T deal.Tough position !!
If by competitive you mean contending for a playoff spot..I agree...it won't happen before 2010. We are not a playoff contender next year unless we catch a ridiculous amount of breaks, but we have a chance at being around .500, which certainly would be improvement and could lead to contending in the near future. Our rotation is looking pretty solid, our bullpen is very good, Gordon had a great 2nd half, DeJesus is a nice hitter, Mike Aviles had a great year (bit fluky), hopefully a couple of the guys from the Jacobs, Shealy, Kila, Butler group will hit well.....our offense should improve a little bit.
As for our minor leagues, it is mostly in the low minors and no, they won't all pan out...but it's a damn good foundation. Two years from now our AA and AAA teams should look pretty good..along with the MLB team being much improved. Not everything Dayton Moore does is right..but he's done a hell of a lot more right than wrong. Also...DM and the owners have already committed to upping payroll significantly once those guys get more expensive...a Greinke contract extension seems likely this offseason..we've already locked up Soria.......we're not exactly the tightwads we used to be. We also outspent everybody in this year's draft..had upped international spending by a large amount..have added an extra minor league team. This isn't the same organization as five years ago. Trust me, I'm not just some homer who is going to say that everything we do is awesome. When we suck or do something stupid (like the Jose Guillen signing), I'll be the first one to say it.
BTW My own personal feeling is that Jacobs WAS NOT the guy they should have traded for but Ugglia even if it would have cost them ADDED prospects.
Yes, trading for Uggla would've been better. Can't deny that.
Bored
He was comparing the NL West to the AL Central and the NL East
Back at this dynasty thing again: Resurrecting The Rockies: 2001 Onward
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The Royals should be building through Pitching, there's no way they should be trading there really only good RP besides Grienke to the Marlins, they had 3 average 1B already why do they need another?
Dreamweaver
j
Dreamweaver
Nunez was our 4th best reliever last year and can hardly stay on the field. We have three, maybe four pretty solid starters going into next year...as well as an All-Star caliber closer. We need offense WAY WAY WAY more than pitching. DM is building through pitching, our lower minors is stocked with pitching as well as a few good prospects in AA-AAA.......and DM has shown the ability to find power relievers from nowhere (Ramon Ramirez, Robinson Tejada, Soria..........
Also..am I reading that right, you think Leo Nunez was our only good reliever, besides Greinke!??!?!?!??!?! That's pretty obviously wrong.
Uhh....Greinke is a starter and had a 3.47 ERA while striking out 183 batters in 202 innings...while not walking very many. He's close to an ace...close. As for our other relievers..well, our closer Joakim Soria was an All-Star with a 1.60 ERA and 42 saves with a K per inning. Ramon Ramirez had a 2.64 ERA also with a strikeout per inning. Ron Mahay was amazing for us most of the year until he got a minor injury and struggled to end the year. His ERA was 1.75 at the end of July..then he got hurt a little later and struggled after that, but he was damn good for us too. Nunez was our 4th best reliever...and even Robinson Tejada was better than him when he got here, striking out OVER a batter per inning with an ERA of 3.20. Also, Carlos Rosa appears to have the makings of a dominant reliever. Leo Nunez will not be missed AT ALL. He's decent when healthy..which isn't that often.
o
Keith Law weighed in today (Insider only). Some excerpts:
His reasons why are simple....Jacobs is not an every day first basemen. Horrendous defense, poor OBP and never walks, which was one of the big problems with the Royals offense (one of only 3 AL teams since 1931 to walk less than 400 times), and can't hit lefties...and that jives with what I said earlier - he'd be okay as a platoon DH used only against righties.I addressed this briefly in chat Thursday, but it's worth reiterating: The Royals' trade for Mike Jacobs was a profoundly wrongheaded move.
And here's what he has to say about Nunez, and it's nothing spectacular:For the privilege of burning a roster spot on Jacobs, the Royals will pay him between $2 million and $3 million this year in arbitration while they have to find a platoon partner for him and pay that player as well, to say nothing of the higher salaries he'll earn in 2010 and 2011. (In fact, several industry sources told me they expected the Marlins would have non-tendered Jacobs in December.)
The player the Marlins received in return, Leo Nunez, is, in scouting parlance, "a guy." He can pitch in a big-league pen. He might grow up to be an eighth inning guy, but probably not. He costs nothing and can give you 60-70 decent innings. He throws strikes with a low-90s cutter, will flash a four-seamer up to 94-95, and throws a fringy slider; his changeup is poor and lefties hit him hard, although his arm slot might be all right for a splitter. He's under control for four more years and should be a good value for at least the first three even if he never develops a true swing-and-miss pitch.
Nunez is not a star, but he has value; the Marlins got that value for a player they were probably going to discard in two months, while the Royals just miscalculated badly and are threatening to exacerbate the biggest offensive problem in 2008, their lack of patience.
Dreamweaver
I'd love to see how Nunez is a guy who gives you "60-70 decent innings." He's gotten hurt every single year since he's been a Royal.
It's not like this is going to be our only move of the offseason. If it were, that would be a disappointing offseason. Keity Law seems to think that this is our "big move" to improve our offense. It's not. Hopefully Jacobs can improve it a little, but we aren't even depending on Jacobs very much. If he's good, great, if he's not, we have others to replace him. I think this is a minor deal for the Royals...Mike Jacobs isn't the "answer to our offensive problems." The Jose Guillen signing was bad b/c he was our "big acquisition" that was supposed to siginificanly upgrade our offense. We gave him big money..THAT was a bad move. Mike Jacobs is just a small piece that we hope will work out...we're not attached to him by big money or a long contract or anything.....and we didn't give up anything we will regret to get him. Trading J.P. Howell for Joey Gathright..that was bad. The Guillen signing..that was bad. Trading our fourth best reliever for a decent hitter with good power and terrible OBP...that's not bad. Not great...but not worth criticism. As for the platoon idea...Jacobs mashed righties. Butler mashes lefties. Sounds good to me.
Keith Law is just jumping on another chance to bash the Royals. Just like before the 2008 season when he said he thought the Royals were going to lose 98 games, just like when he bashed Zack Greinke as a bust, just like he criticized the Gil Meche signing and said that it is ruining the pitching FA market, and just like him writing a full scouting report on Daniel Cortes (AA pitching prospect) and calling him overrated and a future long man at best..and then later admitting that he had never actually seen him pitch before writing the scouting report. I'm glad Keith Law hates it, just another hater to prove wrong. People need to get over this "oh, they are the Royals, they must suck" mentality....otherwise we're gonna sneak up on an awful lot of people..just like the Rays did this year..even though anyone paying attention could've seen this coming. (Not saying the Royals are like the Rays next year OR that you, HoustonGM, are one of the "haters")
HoustonGM, your points about Jacobs are valid..I don't disagree with them much. Jacobs isn't all that great. I just think you and most others are massively overrating Nunez.
Dreamweaver
Also...I just want to point out..all of you who are calling Leo Nunez a very good young reliever.....he is listed at 6'1" and 160 lbs...and I'd say that's being generous. They probably weighed him with his full uniform on. Get ready for a lot of this Marlin fans. His mechanics are awful and he's as very scrawny....especially his legs. His pitching is all arm..and that's just a terrible recipe. He can probably make it through about 30 good innings to start the year..and then his fastball will drop to about 88 or 89 mph in July like it has in the past..then it'll be elbow soreness...15-day DL, rehab for a couple weeks, comes back..still throwing 88 mph...then by September he might be back to full strength for 5 or 6 more good innings.
Skinny arm. Lots of torque in that elbow.
An annual occurence.
o
Law's one of my favorite writers, and I find it funny that fans of every team seem to think that he "hates" their team and jumps at every chance to bash them. So, this isn't going to be on the Jacobs trade, but I felt like checking some of these things out.
He projected them to go 70-92, and then went 75-87 with a Pythagorean record of 71-91. I'd say he nailed it.
Can't find anywhere where he said that. The only thing I can find is from June of 2007 in his review of the 2002 draft where he said:
So out of 16 pitchers, seven (or six, if you don't count Saunders) turned out to be worthy of their selections, and Greinke has a chance to eventually make it eight.Also can't find where he said this. In fact, in his review of the deal he concluded:
It's unlikely that Meche will pitch well and often enough to provide a good return on this investment. But to the extent that this is part of a larger plan to build the 2008-plus rotation, as long as Meche can give them 30 starts a year, it's a step in the right direction. And if the Royals can do the unlikely and get results from Meche that come close to the quality of his stuff, he'll be a good investment in his own right.Can't find this either. Below is what I did find from Law on Cortes...nothing close to what you've said:
At the time the Royals acquired him:
Recently:The Royals also acquired Dan Cortes, a 6-foot-5, 205-pound, 19-year-old right-hander who was Chicago's seventh-round pick in 2005. He has a fringe-average fastball and flashes a plus breaking ball at times but is still raw and has a fair amount of projection. He's an ideal second guy in a trade, especially given the paucity of pitching in the Royals' system.Earlier this year:He's further away than I would have thought a month ago. He's still pretty raw. I've also heard that his off-field issues are ... well, they're something to consider when valuing him.
Benjamin: Lawrence, KS: So how would you rate how Moore has done in KC? Neyer gives him a C+ stating he doesn't know how to spend money and the minor league system is still bare.
Keith Law: The system is not bare, not after this draft. Moustakas and Cortes are both good prospects, even if I'm a little below the consensus on them. Bare is, say, the White Sox' system. The Royals lack depth but have a couple of potential impact guys. Maybe more than a couple if you think I'm light on Moustakas.
And back on to the Jacobs trade,
I don't think he's great. He's a young arm, cheap, maybe a slightly above average reliever, injury concerns like a lot of young pitchers. I just wouldn't trade him for a 28 year old platoon DH entering his arbitration years.
Dreamweaver
Well, I'm just going by what I've seen and heard from various sources, blogs, message boards, his chats, whatever. I'm not gonna claim to have read everything he writes. I know he's said a lot of those things though...except for the 98 loss one..I could be misremembering that one and that could've been for the 2007 season or something. I know he's said that Greinke looks to be heading down the path to being a bust when we moved him to the pen in 2007. I know that he said that signings like the Gil Meche signing were ruining the FA market..and I know that he said he's never seen Cortes pitch after writing a scouting report for him. Others might be debatable, but I remember those things. I don't have links to them or when he said them...people obviously change their minds and whatever..so whatever, I can't prove anything, but I know what I've heard. Not worth arguing about, back to the trade.
Average 1B > Average reliever when your team has an awful offense, not one single proven 1B, and a pretty good bullpen.
o
Jacobs is not an average first basemen.
The team has an awful offense in large part due to their aversion to walks, which Mike Jacobs just makes exacerbates.
Dreamweaver
Well, he's got a career EQA of .275, with .260 being average. Fine, he may not be an "average 1B" overall, but going by EQA, he's an above average hitter overall. The team does need to add more OBP. That's why we're going to do more to upgrade the offense. Mike Jacobs is probably the most minor move we'll make to upgrade our offense....and we gave up a guy we won't miss for one second. I'm still not seeing how this deal hurts us. We were one of the worst teams in OBP. We were also one of the worst in SLG. We need both. If Jacobs were our biggest acquisition to help our offense, that would be bad and my opinion of the deal will change. However, it won't be...it'll probably be the most minor.
o
Yes, he's an above average hitter overall. But not for a first basemen. Plus, he's a huge negative defensively, and against lefties. Like I said, he's an okay platoon DH.
As I said earlier, I don't think it really hurts as much as it just does little to improve the team's future outlook, while using up a resource that could've been used to improve the team in an area where they have a very clear need.I'm still not seeing how this deal hurts us.
Dreamweaver
Jacobs defense does suck. Good thing he's playing the least important defensive position on the diamond. Catch the ball when it is thrown to you. We've had a big emphasis on 1B defense each of the past few seasons....Doug Mientkiewicz and Ross Gload, two supposedly great gloves. Didn't work. Of course I'd love to have a 1B with a great OBP, great SLG, and stellar defense. Unfortunately, not many of those are available...unless our prayers are answered and Kila Kaaihue goes from a guy who looked like an idiot in AA ball to a true impact bat in two years. That seems pretty unlikely. We have to take some chances. We are taking a chance. If it doesn't work, we lose a guy who can't even strike out that many batters in relief.
Okay....our biggest need is a good outfielder. Gordon at 3B looks good. Aviles at SS looks nice. Alberto Callaspo is a good bet to put up a .340+ OBP at 2B. Let's say we sign an above average outfielder...that's what we need to do to improve the offense. Jacobs is just another option at 1B. Maybe he'll do well, maybe he won't. This is a minor trade and people are going off on it like it's our big move of the year that we think is going to make our offense awesome. Nobody thinks that..but we're being criticized for thinking it.
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