Marlins send Jacobs to Royals

[KowboyKoop]

What they NEED is a decent GM. They have not made good moves since SCHULERHULTZ left for ATLANTA

Ever heard of Joakim Soria? My Royals were a lot better than your Braves last year and will be so again this year. Rapidly improving farm system, especially in the low minors, a legit top two in our rotation, some young hitters who are getting better..and a lockdown back end of the bullpen. Sorry, but the Royals aren't NEARLY as bad as you might think...put us in the sorry NL East and we'd have been above .500....as our amazing interleague record might indicate (best in baseball...in case you didn't know).

[KowboyKoop]

Also, Mike Jacobs lower OBP (than his career average) was due to a low BABIP...260 last year as compared to his previous seasons BABIPs of .311, .295, and .294.

This certainly isn't a great trade for the Royals, Jacobs isn't the "solution" to our offensive woes...but for giving up Leo Nunez...that's pretty good value. Jacobs OBP will improve some..to .320 or so (still not very good), but if he can maintain a good SLG.....he certainly helps our offense. What our offense needs is Gordon to keep developing (.392 OBP in the 2nd half) and others to improve their OBPs..like DeJesus and Callaspo hopefully in the #1 and 2 spots...along with Kila hopefully emerging later in the season...as he is supposedly an OBP machine.

[KowboyKoop]

Now, as for Rany's thoughts on the trade.....he also hated the Gil Meche signing, wants to move Gordon to 1B to make Mark Teahen our everyday 3B, was hyping John Buck as an All-Star caliber catcher as late as early this year, hated the Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister trade when it happened, loved the Ross Gload acquisition..on and on and on I could go. Not to say he never has valid points.....but him not liking the trade doesn't faze me a bit. It's a good trade...but not such a good one that it makes us contenders or anything ridiculous like that. It improves the offense a little bit and allows Carlos Rosa to most likely take Nunez's spot in the bullpen..which is also an improvement most likely.

[HoustonGM]

Now, Jacobs certainly isn't without flaw..but he has a career OPS+ of 110 while playing in a big ballpark. I fail to see how this is a bad trade for the Royals.

It's not really a bad trade as much as it is a useless one. As Rany said in his long blog entry, it improves the Royals for 2009, but the Royals aren't going anywhere in 2009, and Jacobs isn't likely to be part of the next good Royals team.

Everyone says we have a huge logjam of similar players? Uhhh..as a diehard Royals fan, I'd love to hear about this wonderful problem we have. Kila Kaaihue has had ONE good year in the minors in his career.

As a 24 year old, at a level appropriate to his age, it's entirely likely that his breakout this past year was for real. There's plenty of guys who did nothing in the minors, broke out, and then went on to be good (and yes, I know, there's plenty of guys who went on to do nothing too, but the trick is being able to make educated decisions about which are flukes and which aren't). Geovany Soto did nothing until breaking out last year, and now he's the likely ROTY. Miguel Cabrera had horrible minor league performance until breaking out in AA and never looking back. The Royals had their own experience with a guy like that this year in Mike Aviles.

He may not be better than Jacobs, but he's not much worse. He's a better defender, that's for sure, and while he doesn't have Jacobs power, he'll post a better OBP and likely an OPS+ of at least 100, which is par for the course for Jacobs. Plus, he has upside, while Jacobs has none.

Billy Butler, while full of potential, wasn't that great last year.

Don't give up so quickly. He's a 22 year old whose shown a very potent bat.

Ryan Shealy had one good month last year and has more leg injuries in his past than I can possibly count.

Shealy's hit wherever he goes but has never been given a real shot.

The last guy is Ross Gload, who is a waste of a good uniform.

You're right on that.

The three guys not named Gload are all very capable of putting up numbers just like Jacobs, except with a trade-off of some power for OBP, and the first two both have upside.

Mike Jacobs isn't a great hitter, but he's a pretty decent one..and getting a pretty decent hitter for a decent reliever who is a gigantic injury risk every single year...I don't see how we lose this one.

I might've been a bit too hard in my critique of it. I wouldn't say you lose it, so much as it does nothing to improve the outlook of the franchise, and doesn't fill a spot of need.

Again...Jacob's isn't great, but you guys are MASSIVELY overrating Leo Nunez..a guy none of you have probably ever heard of before this (and deservedly so..he's simply decent).

I'd rather have a decent 24 year old reliever with upside than a late-20's all-or-nothing hitter that's not likely to age well, and is about to cost a couple million bucks, but that's just me. If the Royals had a huge hole at first base, I wouldn't really have a problem with the deal, but they don't.

Also...I just can't understand how you say that Ryan Shealy and Kila Kaaihue are better than Mike Jacobs.......I don't understand that one at all. Kila has had one good minor league season and will be starting in AAA next year to prove it wasn't a fluke...and Shealy...uh...can you provide any evidence that he's already better than Mike Jacobs?? He did have one good month.

My words were "similar or better." I'm confident that one of Shealy, Butler, or Kaiihue could post a 100-110 OPS+. The "or better" is because Butler and Kaiihue both have good upside.

Also, Mike Jacobs lower OBP (than his career average) was due to a low BABIP...260 last year as compared to his previous seasons BABIPs of .311, .295, and .294.

It's not like his .318 career OBP is anything amazing. In fact, it's still terrible. He has a low OBP for one reason - he rarely walks.

This certainly isn't a great trade for the Royals, Jacobs isn't the "solution" to our offensive woes...but for giving up Leo Nunez...that's pretty good value. Jacobs OBP will improve some..to .320 or so (still not very good), but if he can maintain a good SLG.....he certainly helps our offense. What our offense needs is Gordon to keep developing (.392 OBP in the 2nd half) and others to improve their OBPs..like DeJesus and Callaspo hopefully in the #1 and 2 spots...along with Kila hopefully emerging later in the season...as he is supposedly an OBP machine.

Fair take.

It improves the offense a little bit and allows Carlos Rosa to most likely take Nunez's spot in the bullpen..which is also an improvement most likely.

So I suppose you're happy that the Marlins were turned off by Carlos Rosa's health reports? Rosa was originally the Marlins' target before Nunez.

[HoustonGM]

I'd also say this....while Nunez himself isn't necessarily a great pitcher, he likely could've been used to get something much better than Mike Jacobs. He was about to net Milton Bradley some time back...before Bradley's fantastic 2008, yes, but Bradley's always been a very good hitter, just with injury and attitude concerns.

[Fish Troll]

Yeah, this is pretty dumb on the Royals part. Who will be the 1B in Florida now, Gaby Sanchez?

Him or move Cantu to first, Cantu have shown flashes of great plays at 1st from time to time, maybe that mean he plays better defense there.

[Swampdog]

Not to rain on your KC parade there, KKoop, but the Royals did not have the best interleague record in 2008. The Twins went 14-4, and the Royals were tied for second at 13-5. Small point, I know. Of course, they also fattened up the record with a 7-2 mark vs the putrid NL West. All-time, the Royals interleague record is the third worst in the AL.

The Royals were basically the same team in 2008 as they were in 2007. They won a few more games, but that might well be a mirage, as their run differential was worse. This version of the Royals is still far better than the disasters of 2004, 2005, and 2006, no doubt. They still have a long way to go before they would meet anyones criteria of a "good" team though. From what I see, in 2009 they are more likely to win 65 games than 85.

[KowboyKoop]

It's not really a bad trade as much as it is a useless one. As Rany said in his long blog entry, it improves the Royals for 2009, but the Royals aren't going anywhere in 2009, and Jacobs isn't likely to be part of the next good Royals team.


Jacobs will be here for the next three years, unless traded. I don't see why the Royals can't be a good team in three years. We have decent starting pitching, a great back end of the bullpen, and a few nice young hitters. We aren't as far off as you might think.

As a 24 year old, at a level appropriate to his age, it's entirely likely that his breakout this past year was for real. There's plenty of guys who did nothing in the minors, broke out, and then went on to be good (and yes, I know, there's plenty of guys who went on to do nothing too, but the trick is being able to make educated decisions about which are flukes and which aren't). Geovany Soto did nothing until breaking out last year, and now he's the likely ROTY. Miguel Cabrera had horrible minor league performance until breaking out in AA and never looking back. The Royals had their own experience with a guy like that this year in Mike Aviles.

Nothing wrong with liking Kila, but to count on him producing good numbers this year would be a stretch.

He may not be better than Jacobs, but he's not much worse. He's a better defender, that's for sure, and while he doesn't have Jacobs power, he'll post a better OBP and likely an OPS+ of at least 100, which is par for the course for Jacobs. Plus, he has upside, while Jacobs has none.


I've never seen Jacobs play defense, but I have seen Kila play defense. The ONE game he played in KC defensively, he misplayed three balls in one inning. The few games I saw him in Omaha, he was equally brutal, including dropping routine throws from 1B four times. I highly doubt there is any evidence he is better defensively than Jacobs. Also, I'm not sure how you say a 100 OPS+ is par for the course for Jacobs, when his career OPS+ is 110

Don't give up so quickly. He's a 22 year old whose shown a very potent bat.

No way am I giving up on Butler.

Shealy's hit wherever he goes but has never been given a real shot.

He was given the starting job in 2007, why don't you go check those numbers out.

You're right on that.

The three guys not named Gload are all very capable of putting up numbers just like Jacobs, except with a trade-off of some power for OBP, and the first two both have upside.

They are capable of it, but none of them ever have yet. I am not saying Jacobs is better than all these guys, I'm just glad we have more options when some of them don't produce this year. It's not like we signed Jacobs to some big deal and are now attached to him for a long time. If he sucks, Butler and Kila will get their ABs. Jacobs isn't blocking anyone. Kila is starting in AAA, no reason why Butler, Shealy, and Jacobs can't all be on the roster next year and get plenty of ABs.

I might've been a bit too hard in my critique of it. I wouldn't say you lose it, so much as it does nothing to improve the outlook of the franchise, and doesn't fill a spot of need.


I'd rather have a decent 24 year old reliever with upside than a late-20's all-or-nothing hitter that's not likely to age well, and is about to cost a couple million bucks, but that's just me. If the Royals had a huge hole at first base, I wouldn't really have a problem with the deal, but they don't.


My words were "similar or better." I'm confident that one of Shealy, Butler, or Kaiihue could post a 100-110 OPS+. The "or better" is because Butler and Kaiihue both have good upside.


It's not like his .318 career OBP is anything amazing. In fact, it's still terrible. He has a low OBP for one reason - he rarely walks.


Fair take.


So I suppose you're happy that the Marlins were turned off by Carlos Rosa's health reports? Rosa was originally the Marlins' target before Nunez.

I'm thrilled that the Marlins were turned off of Rosa. Rosa had a strained forearm in August and we shut him down for the year as a precaution. Sure, he's an injury risk, but he has a LOT more upside than Nunez and Nunez is a FAR bigger health risk. Nunez will be on the DL at some point this year, he's literally one of the skinniest pitchers in the game and his mechanices are violent. It's a virtual guarantee.

Let me finish by saying that I don't disagree with you all that much on Mike Jacobs. The part I think you are off about is Leo Nunez. Nunez was our fourth best reliever last year, is often injured, and his K/BB numbers last year were anything but impressive..less than 5 K/per 9 is pretty bad for a reliever. We gave up a guy who we can easily replace and got another option for our offense. Jacobs will make 3 million dollars next year...it's not like we are heavily invested in him. He'll get his shot, if he sucks, we have other options..if he produces like he did in Florida, it improves our offense a little bit.

[KowboyKoop]

Not to rain on your KC parade there, KKoop, but the Royals did not have the best interleague record in 2008. The Twins went 14-4, and the Royals were tied for second at 13-5. Small point, I know. Of course, they also fattened up the record with a 7-2 mark vs the putrid NL West. All-time, the Royals interleague record is the third worst in the AL.

The Royals were basically the same team in 2008 as they were in 2007. They won a few more games, but that might well be a mirage, as their run differential was worse. This version of the Royals is still far better than the disasters of 2004, 2005, and 2006, no doubt. They still have a long way to go before they would meet anyones criteria of a "good" team though. From what I see, in 2009 they are more likely to win 65 games than 85.

I don't care if all-time our record is 3rd worst, I'm only talking about last year. When talking about how good the Rays are, you gonna bring up their record in 2001??


There is no chance in hell we are more likely to win 65 than 85. Our starting pitching and bullpen is way too good for that. Greinke and Meche are a legit top of the rotation, Soria is a dominant closer (along with other very good relievers), Davies looks to have found something last year, Hochevar's ERA should've been way better than it was last year (FIP in the mid 4s I believer). That's potentially four pretty good starting pitchers and a lock-down closer. Combine that with Gordon having a breakout 2nd half last year and a few other nice hitters...we're a legit .500 team next year if we can add a little more offense. We've gone from 56 wins to 62 wins to 69 wins to 75 wins, no reason that steay improvement can't continue..and it's only gonna get better as our lower minors is loaded and those guys will start creeping towards AA this year. The Royals would've been above .500 in the NL last year and might be so in '09 in the AL Central. I know that "we're the Royals, ha ha," but we're not nearly as bad as people think....

As for run differential....being punished because our long relievers suck is ridiculous. Not my fault our manager put Hideo Nomo and Kip Wells and Jeff Fulchino in the game so often when we weren't losing by that much. That was our weakest area last year..long relief...and it skewed our run differential.

[Swampdog]

Yeah, the all-time KC interleague record.., that was my main point all right. That was just additional info. Nice work there.

I commend you for your loyalty to the team you root for. Also for your optimism. Thats what its all about. It is possible that the Royals could have won the NL West this year, but so could some AAA teams. The reality is that the Royals play in the majors though. Some improvement is certainly possible. That applies to just about any team, any year.

All I'm saying is that I wouldn't count on it. Good luck though.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

I don't care if all-time our record is 3rd worst, I'm only talking about last year. When talking about how good the Rays are, you gonna bring up their record in 2001??


There is no chance in hell we are more likely to win 65 than 85. Our starting pitching and bullpen is way too good for that. Greinke and Meche are a legit top of the rotation, Soria is a dominant closer (along with other very good relievers), Davies looks to have found something last year, Hochevar's ERA should've been way better than it was last year (FIP in the mid 4s I believer). That's potentially four pretty good starting pitchers and a lock-down closer. Combine that with Gordon having a breakout 2nd half last year and a few other nice hitters...we're a legit .500 team next year if we can add a little more offense. We've gone from 56 wins to 62 wins to 69 wins to 75 wins, no reason that steay improvement can't continue..and it's only gonna get better as our lower minors is loaded and those guys will start creeping towards AA this year. The Royals would've been above .500 in the NL last year and might be so in '09 in the AL Central. I know that "we're the Royals, ha ha," but we're not nearly as bad as people think....

As for run differential....being punished because our long relievers suck is ridiculous. Not my fault our manager put Hideo Nomo and Kip Wells and Jeff Fulchino in the game so often when we weren't losing by that much. That was our weakest area last year..long relief...and it skewed our run differential.

Yes the Royals have improved BUT still aren't strong enough to compete in the AL Central - which is,whether you like it or not,were they play.

The Jacobs for Nunez deal "interesting" & "weird",IMO.Firstly,it is not the "weakest" spot in the KC lineup - as they ALREADY had Butler/Shealy/Gload & Kila available for 2 spots.

Secondly,they dealt a arm (which in today's FA market) who could have netted them a more needed filler eg a middle infielder

The positive spin though is Moore is dealing & Hillman is competent as a manager.As you said your SPs have potential but the minors,as Sickels reported :

The Royals have made a lot of improvements, but still need more offensive depth beyond the top elite batters. Focus on pitching has yielded dividends at the lower levels, but injury attrition will hit at some point, and they could use more polished guys to mix with the tools players.

& they lack top level guys WHO can play now (a la Bruce/Votto/Cueto for example).Seems to me that the team will be competitive but not before 2010 & EVEN then they will be in a difficult position as their young guys,like Greinke or Gordon,will be arb ready & be "looking" for a bumper L-T deal.Tough position !!

BTW My own personal feeling is that Jacobs WAS NOT the guy they should have traded for but Ugglia even if it would have cost them ADDED prospects.

[rockiesfan4ever]

The only reason the NL West didn't have a team that had an amazing record is they all have to play each other! It's hard to win 90 games when you have other teams that you play 18 times who are just as good.

[TheNamelessPoet]

The only reason the NL West didn't have a team that had an amazing record is they all have to play each other! It's hard to win 90 games when you have other teams that you play 18 times who are just as good.

or just as bad. ur telling me ARI, SDP, LAD, SFG, COL are all equal to TB, NYY, BOS, TOR, BALT...

i sure hope not

[Swampdog]

Just as good? Are you serious? The only reason that ANYONE in the NL West had a winning record at all is BECAUSE they played 72 (yes, seventy-two) games against the incredibly bad NL West. Heres a fact for you: No team in the NL West had a winning record against the rest of baseball. Every team in that painfully awful division was a loser outside their division.

[HoustonGM]

Jacobs will be here for the next three years, unless traded. I don't see why the Royals can't be a good team in three years. We have decent starting pitching, a great back end of the bullpen, and a few nice young hitters. We aren't as far off as you might think.

Jacobs is not going to be worth the money he'll be getting in three years. Plus, he isn't all that good.

I've never seen Jacobs play defense, but I have seen Kila play defense. The ONE game he played in KC defensively, he misplayed three balls in one inning. The few games I saw him in Omaha, he was equally brutal, including dropping routine throws from 1B four times. I highly doubt there is any evidence he is better defensively than Jacobs.

Jacobs' defensive numbers in nearly every advanced defensive metric place him squarely at the bottom of all first basemen. I haven't seen Kila play defense, but I haven't heard anything about it either, except what you just said. I would think Kila would almost have to be better by default, even if he's not good.

Also, I'm not sure how you say a 100 OPS+ is par for the course for Jacobs, when his career OPS+ is 110

Last 3 years - 106-100-109. And OPS overvalues slugging while undervaluing on-base percentage.

The only reason the NL West didn't have a team that had an amazing record is they all have to play each other! It's hard to win 90 games when you have other teams that you play 18 times who are just as good.

I'd like to introduce you to the AL East, where 4 teams had 86 or more wins.

Like Swampdog said, the only reason any of them had a winning record is because they play nearly half their games against themselves, so almost by default one of them has to have a winning record. It's really hard to win a division with a losing record in the era of the unbalanced schedule.