Manuel throws SABR-heads under bus

[Pavelb1]

On his first full day as the Mets' long-term manager, Manuel forcefully attacked the SABR-type mathematical analysis some have fixated on in recent years.

"You get so many statistical people together, they put so many stats on paper, and they say, well, if you do this and you score this many runs, you do that many times, you'll be in the playoffs," he said.

"That's not really how it works, and that's what we have to get away from. And that's going to have to be a different mind-set of the team in going forward. We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people. We have to win because we have baseball players that know and can understand the game."

Have fun missing the playoffs for the next ten years Mets fans.

[HoustonGM]

I don't even know what what he's saying means. It doesn't even really sound like he knows what he's saying.

You don't win by having statistical people. You don't win by knowing and understanding the game. You win by scoring more runs than your opponents. It's as simple as that. And yes, contrary to seemingly popular belief, the use of statistical analysis can help identify how to maximize your run scoring and run prevention.

And I still have no idea what the hell "knowing how to win" is.

[TheNamelessPoet]

what I understood from that is that you cant ONLY use statistics... every once and a while u use your gut... or use the guy who is hot. thats what I think he ment.... but i dont really know anything so

[HoustonGM]

"You get so many statistical people together, they put so many stats on paper, and they say, well, if you do this and you score this many runs, you do that many times, you'll be in the playoffs," he said.

Also, nobody says this. It's just another strawman from the anti-statistics people.

[HoustonGM]

what I understood from that is that you cant ONLY use statistics... every once and a while u use your gut... or use the guy who is hot. thats what I think he ment.... but i dont really know anything so

Saying that you can't only use statistics is completely meaningless because nobody advocates only using statistics.

Like what I quoted in my above post, it's a ridiculous strawman used in a feeble attempt to discredit statistical analysis.

[metsguy234]

I think every manager has basically said something like this at some point by now... so that makes you think... maybe these people are right...

[kenny1234]

Here is a link to the original article - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/sp...tml?ref=sports

Here are Manuel's plans -

Come spring training, Manuel said, he planned to do some “serious teaching” with his players, changing their offensive strategy and inculcating the importance of unselfish baseball. He wants them, as well as the organization, to diminish the emphasis on statistics and establish a culture of selflessness that values sharp situational hitting, flawless fundamentals and impervious defense — things that the Angels, perennial contenders, do better than perhaps any team in baseball.

First, the usual desire to improve situational hitting - as if anyone actually knows how to do that.

And then the oft-quoted desire to add that 'intangible element'.

But Manuel also agreed with General Manager Omar Minaya and the chief operating officer, Jeff Wilpon, who seemed to allude last week that the team was lacking some intangible element.

[gRYFYN1]

I think every manager has basically said something like this at some point by now... so that makes you think... maybe these people are right...

Yeah but what is "this" that he's saying .... All he saying is that they have "to know how to win", again what does that mean ....

[gRYFYN1]

Here is a link to the original article - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/sp...tml?ref=sports

And then the oft-quoted desire to add that 'intangible element'.

what Intangible element ? a 1st baseman that can hit for the 1st 50 games of the season? A bullpen? A closer? those kinda intangibles ?

[metsguy234]

Yeah but what is "this" that he's saying .... All he saying is that they have "to know how to win", again what does that mean ....

It means they have to know the things that make a team successful... "how to win"

[gRYFYN1]

It means they have to know the things that make a team successful... "how to win"

Um ?? you mean like scoring more runs that the other guys .... mystery solved ?

[filihok]

I don't want to sound rude, and I'm not trying to claim some sort of expertise but...

do any of you all play or have played organized sports?

Most of my experience in is basketball, which is a different type of team game than baseball, but I have to think that those of us who participate in team sports can appreciate-even if we can't quantify-intangibles and the fabled "knowing how to win".

[HoustonGM]

I think every manager has basically said something like this at some point by now... so that makes you think... maybe these people are right...

As gRYFYN1 said, WHAT IS HE SAYING? What are they "right" about?

Also, maybe they say it just to shut up the media that asks the same bland questions over and over again.

Um ?? you mean like scoring more runs that the other guys .... mystery solved ?

You'd think it was that simple, right?

do any of you all play or have played organized sports?

Not anymore.

Most of my experience in is basketball, which is a different type of team game than baseball, but I have to think that those of us who participate in team sports can appreciate-even if we can't quantify-intangibles and the fabled "knowing how to win".

You don't have to quantify "knowing how to win" to explain it, and I've never heard one explanation of what it means. What does it mean?

It means nothing as far as I can tell. It's just a cliche. All players "know how to win." It's not like David Eckstein has some magical quality about him that makes him more apt to win, and Adam Dunn is a sad sack of crap who can't comprehend what winning means.

Intangibles like leadership, etc. are a different story. "Knowing how to win" means nothing.

[etothep]

Tthe sport I follow most, by a wide margin, is football. You hear, especially when talking about QBs or teams that are generally younger than others (either lots of young players in the NFL or lots of fresh & soph in college), a lot of people say the players (or teams) need to learn how to win.

I think it's more a matter of semantics, in that what they mean is the players (most notably those in positions of importance, a la QBs, MLBs, Cs) need to learn how not to lose (see: the Houston Texans game sunday vs the colts where they were throwing up 27-10 with 5 mins to go for no apparent reason).

I'm having a problem coming up with a baseball comparison to something along those lines, but for a comparison to another sport, it would be like a team in basketball knowing that if they're up big late in the game, that they would want to slow it down & use the clock as their friend, and having players who are wise enough to notice that on their own without coaches having to call a TO to point it out to them.


That's what "knowing how to win" means to me, whether it's what managers or coaches mean when they say it, I couldn't tell. And again, if someone can come up with a similar comparison to baseball, feel free to supply it, as I'm too tired to do much more thinking right now

[HoustonGM]

The thing is that the dynamics of baseball are entirely different than sports like football and basketball. It's more of a team game made up of a bunch of player vs. player match-ups, and there's no clock, unlike the other sports where each entire team is playing against each other at once, with a time limit.