The Rays..can they survive?

[HoustonGM]

I'm confused. I wasn't saying that an increase in offense is detrimental. I was just saying...it happens.

But okay.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

I'm confused.

But okay.

LOL its not confusing,HGM your results are based on BM "stock" each team has 60/70 players +6 draftees but IRL their choice is way way larger - some aren't classified as prospects BUT do become MLB regulars eg Richards,some are AAAA who are better than AAAA eg Pena '06 to Pena today (or Tatis in NYM),+ those who have "breakout" (Sandoval) + those "who fly under the radar".

You & I do fine work but have what 15% of all prospects in MILB & as I said expansion NOW has more & more players' available than 40 years ago & those players' are better "groomed" for baseball thanks to tournaments (like Olympics/WBC or World Championships) or even MLB sponsored leagues like Australian Summer League/DSL/Mexican Summer League etc.

Means that players' are ready quicker & better for professional Baseball THAN 20 or EVEN 20 years ago but no longer just US based but also Aussies,Dominicans & even Italians!

Thus possibly exapnsion MAY not have AS LARGE a hike in offence as predicted in your BM sim results .

[FRENCHREDSOX]

I'm confused. I wasn't saying that an increase in offense is detrimental. I was just saying...it happens.

But okay.

Yes it happens BUT your results MAYBE higher than WHAT would IRL occur .

[HoustonGM]

Yes it happens BUT your results MAYBE higher than WHAT would IRL occur .

I don't know, maybe. In real life, each expansion did come with an increase in offense, but the amount of the increase varied each time.

[justanewguy]

Maybe watered-down pitching could and should be countered by going back to 4 man rotations and using fewer specialist relievers.

[HoustonGM]

LOL its not confusing,HGM your results are based on BM "stock" each team has 60/70 players +6 draftees but IRL their choice is way way larger - some aren't classified as prospects BUT do become MLB regulars eg Richards,some are AAAA who are better than AAAA eg Pena '06 to Pena today (or Tatis in NYM),+ those who have "breakout" (Sandoval) + those "who fly under the radar".

As I said, I ran a manual expansion draft, so the teams weren't full of brand new, poor created players. Yes, it's not real life. I wasn't trying to prove anything. Just saying that the draft I ran produced an increase in offense, just like expansions in real life did.

Thus possibly exapnsion MAY not have AS LARGE a hike in offence as predicted in your BM sim results .

I don't even know if it was a LARGE increase. It was just noticeable. And in real life, the offensive increase was noticeable in each expansion year as well.

Again, wasn't trying to prove anything or draw any conclusions from my game. Just posting an observation...so, I'm not sure exactly what point you're trying to make.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

As I said, I ran a manual expansion draft, so the teams weren't full of brand new, poor created players. Yes, it's not real life. I wasn't trying to prove anything. Just saying that the draft I ran produced an increase in offense, just like expansions in real life did.


I don't even know if it was a LARGE increase. It was just noticeable. And in real life, the offensive increase was noticeable in each expansion year as well.

Again, wasn't trying to prove anything or draw any conclusions from my game. Just posting an observation...so, I'm not sure exactly what point you're trying to make.

It was an observation HGM that is all & that BM is "not really" suited for expansion drafts even with yours (or anyone's rosters for that matter) as it simply thins out an already limited supply of players' which is far deeper than any rosters we can use/provide.


Personally I think that the AL needs 2 teams to really equilibrate the 2 leagues,as well as realignment (still believe that Texas has no right to be in West).

[ohms_law]

Teams like the 2 Florida franchises have a major problem because of demographics (ie Aging Population WHO have the "money" to pay DAILY to see the games) rather than actual population.Those Aging guys have teams they "love" more than the Rays/Marlins & will support them rather than the 2 franchises.Just because you live in Florida doesn't stop you supporting the Sox or the Yankees.

Oh, bull.

[michaelg123789]

yeah they for a while

[Arctic Blast]

Really, the best test of the Rays chances isn't going to answerable this year. We'll see how they're doing NEXT season in terms of ticket sales, and that will give some indication of what the potential for this franchise is going to be. Of course, this is assuming they don't pull a Marlins and trade everything away in the offseason.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

Oh, bull.

That is your assessment,Ohms.Funnily,I believe that people are less "fickle" than you - that you BUILD up support of a team over time & remain supportive of that team WHATEVER happens (or nearly) - That the Cowboys' are America's team.That is why the Yankees are the best supported club in the US,that there is a Red Sox or Cub nation who don't all live in Mass. or North Chicago.That is also why I said both Florida franchises (& rightly so) is to:

The aim & goal is to INTEREST the kids & build from that way (like McDonalds did,lol - the kids want to see ball Dad has to take them....) . Luckily the area has a high Hispanic element who have a "natural" affinity to Baseball & both franchises have gone "multi lingual" but there success or failure in a "natural' Football state is by "doping" the kids....

.

is n't that the definition of a "fan" & "fan base" ?

This year the Rays are at 1.658 million fans (up by 411,000) that is an improvement but again I re-iterate & undoubtedly you disagree - that demographics & wealth distribution do matter concerning Florida which is a traditional Football state.

Lastly,correct me if I am wrong,I believe you moved around a bit,did you support your "local team" whernever/wherever you were or did you keep your allegiance throughout those moves to 1 team ?

[TheNamelessPoet]

1st the fans were not affraid
Then They were putrified
knowing they could now have baseball by their side
The had spent so many nights thinking that the move was wrong
They could just flip on the TV and Yes network was so strong........

[ohms_law]

Lastly,correct me if I am wrong,I believe you moved around a bit,did you support your "local team" whernever/wherever you were or did you keep your allegiance throughout those moves to 1 team ?

There was no "local team" where I moved. Hence, no local TV broadcasts, no local paper coverage, etc... which is the point that I'm making. If you're in the market, and a baseball fan at all, 1/2 - 3/4 of the work has already been done for the franchise. All they have to do, at that point, is to put together a competitive team. They don't have to sell that fan on the game in the first place...

Anyway, everyone makes this huge thing about Florida's retirement population. Don't believe all the hype. Yes, it's a large population, but the fact is that most Floridians are not retirees.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

Anyway, everyone makes this huge thing about Florida's retirement population. Don't believe all the hype. Yes, it's a large population, but the fact is that most Floridians are not retirees.

So ? There being rich "retirees" who support another team will cut into their fan base,that is a fact also.

I am not saying they shouldn't be successful but they did start with a handicap - hopefully with both teams getting new stadia & being successful on the field they will grow in popularity.

[grasshopper]

Everyone always makes such a big deal about this, but it bull. Their fans... half the job is done already! if the team is any good then they'll be fans of the local team, and quickly. I never understood this whole line of argument.

What the hell are you talking about? When the Yanks or Sox play in TB, take a look at the stands. Still at least 60% empty. When anybody else is down there, it is worse. TB does not have a fan base. Baseball does not work on the "if you build it, they will come premise".

Argue till the cows come home. Maybe they will get fans some day.