Clay's Blog: Lee for MVP!

[HoustonGM]

It's b/c, in my mind, a player turned a horribly crappy team into just a crappy team. So no, I don't like seeing teams on bad teams win. Not saying the MVP or Cy Young winners have to be on playoff teams, but they should at least be on competitive teams

I just think that the player's value is all that should be taken into account. If a player produces 100 runs for a team that sucks, he's just as valuable as a player that produces an equivalent amount of runs for a team that's good. It just so happens that the latter player's teammates were better. The performance of a player's teammates shouldn't be taken into account when discussing the value of a player. The only time I would ever take into account the record of a team when it comes to an award, is in extremely close cases, where say, two players are basically identical in terms of value, but one player's team made the playoffs while the other's didn't. I'd use it as a tiebreaker, and nothing more. But if one player clearly produced more value than another, but his teammates sucked more and so his team overall didn't do as good, he should still win the MVP in my mind.

The MVP hinging on who makes the playoffs is one of the most ridiculous things when it comes to awards, I think. For example, if the Mets won one more game and the Phillies lost one more game last season, I have no doubt in my mind that David Wright would've won the MVP. Why should the outcome of an award hinge on such a miniscule difference in teammate performance? It shouldn't. All that should matter is the value that individual player provided.

[knicks0929]

I'm not so sure that he'll regress all that much this year. People have been saying that since his hot start, and he's just been plugging along.

I don't think he'll ever repeat a year like he's had this year in the future, but I could easily see him with 20 wins and an ERA below 2.50 at the end of the year.

I've been surprised at how well he's fared since his hot start. The fact that his peripherals are equally good means he is not an ideal candidate for immediate regression. Maybe he's finally broken out, I don't know. I just have a hard time believing he can sustain BB and K rates at a level far superior to his previous numbers. He's a better pitcher today than he was the last few years, for sure, but I'm not convinced he's this much better.

[etothep]

I just think that the player's value is all that should be taken into account. If a player produces 100 runs for a team that sucks, he's just as valuable as a player that produces an equivalent amount of runs for a team that's good. It just so happens that the latter player's teammates were better. The performance of a player's teammates shouldn't be taken into account when discussing the value of a player. The only time I would ever take into account the record of a team, is in extremely close cases, where say, two players are basically identical in terms of value, but one player's team made the playoffs while the other's didn't. I'd use it as a tiebreaker, and nothing more.

Well obviously I'm not saying a 25hr, 100 rbi guy who hits 300 should win the mvp over a 55 hr, 140 rbi, 330 hitter, but in general, if its not a total one-sided argument for the guy on the crappy team, then I'm giving the nod(s) to guys on better teams (even if they may not have had quite as good stats), b/c their production, again in my opinion, is enhanced b/c they helped their team in a playoff push.

Yes, I undertand that baseball isn't a 1 player game, and that if the player's team is in last place, then in all likelihood its noticeably harder to put up equal stats, but that's why I've prefaced my statements that its just my opinion on the matter. No worries, I don't exactly see myself getting a vote anytime soon.

The MVP hinging on who makes the playoffs is one of the most ridiculous things when it comes to awards, I think. For example, if the Mets won one more game and the Phillies lost one more game last season, I have no doubt in my mind that David Wright would've won the MVP. Why should the outcome of an award hinge on such a miniscule difference in teammate performance? It shouldn't. All that should matter is the value that individual player provided.

As I said, I have no qualms with the awards going to non-playoff teams, as long as the teams were competitive or w/in reach of the playoffs. Player A winning the MVP for a team who finished 3 GB is different than Player B winning it for a team 16 GB, to me at least

[knicks0929]

Well obviously I'm not saying a 25hr, 100 rbi guy who hits 300 should win the mvp over a 55 hr, 140 rbi, 330 hitter, but in general, if its not a total one-sided argument for the guy on the crappy team, then I'm giving the nod(s) to guys on better teams (even if they may not have had quite as good stats), b/c their production, again in my opinion, is enhanced b/c they helped their team in a playoff push.

How do you feel about Jimmy Rollins winning it when there were like 4 other players with better numbers who simply didn't make the playoffs?

[Wassit3]

Why?

they can only have an impact every 5 days for starters....

[HoustonGM]

they can only have an impact every 5 days for starters....

But they have a much larger impact on the games they play. It's certainly rare in today's style of game that the best pitcher in the league is going to be more valuable than the best position player in the league, but it's certainly possible.

[filihok]

they can only have an impact every 5 days for starters....

But they have a MUCH greater impact per game than a position player.

If A-Rod sucks it up one game and goes 0-5 with 5K's and 2 errors there are 8 other Yankees to bail him out.

If Ponson gives up 10 runs in three innings the Yankees chance of winnig that game goes way down.

[etothep]

How do you feel about Jimmy Rollins winning it when there were like 4 other players with better numbers who simply didn't make the playoffs?

I've never said it had to go to a guy on a playoff team, just a team who had a shot at the playoffs. And for the record, I would have voted for Holliday last season.

[knicks0929]

I've never said it had to go to a guy on a playoff team, just a team who had a shot at the playoffs.

I wasn't trying to prove you wrong. I was just generally curious how you felt about that.

[knicks0929]

they can only have an impact every 5 days for starters....

Last year, NL Cy Young Jake Peavy faced 898 batters. A normal MVP candidate gets something like 650 plate appearances. Which of the two impacts more plays?


EDIT: That was a bit disingenuous of me. A normal MVP candidate also plays in the field most games. My point is that the discrepancy just isn't as wide as most seem to think.

[filihok]

Last year, NL Cy Young Jake Peavy faced 898 batters. A normal MVP candidate gets something like 650 plate appearances. Which of the two impacts more plays?

Defense could be factored in as well. And pitcher at bats.

Now, if someone wants to argue that an AL pitcher can't win the MVP cause he's only half a player...i'd hear that arguement.

[boomboom]

Something to look at is how many strikes to balls he has thrown. When watching him against Seattle, (now seattle is known for having some hackers), he had thrown 38 strikes and 7 balls in the 5th innings. I was just like WOW! I actually wrote about Lee in thebbreport, I wrote about Lee about 8 days ago in a brief Blog post....

http://thebbreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/cliff-lee.html

[HoustonGM]

Now, if someone wants to argue that an AL pitcher can't win the MVP cause he's only half a player...i'd hear that arguement.

Yes, an NL pitcher making 70 or so at bats makes him DOUBLE the player an AL pitcher is!

[gRYFYN1]

The only reason Lee has a shot is because of the relative lack of outstanding position players in the AL this year. The NL has no shortage of them.

Really?
Hamilton may wind up with a 900 OPS 40 HR 160 RBI

Morneau has played every game leads his team hit, doubles, homeruns, RBI, Slugging and OPS and is 2nd in OBP and runs.

Arod is havinf a Ho hum 300/400/600 season.

Dye is OPSing 950 with and will wind up with 35 HR/100+RBI

Quentin may outperfom him,

There are ALOT of Great players in AL, just they aren;t on the Sox or Yanks so no on pays attention.

[HoustonGM]

There's certainly very good players in the AL, but it's not hard to see that the NL clearly has a better crop of position players this year. I'm not saying that Cliff Lee is going to end up actually amassing the most value of any player in the AL, just saying that he has a shot.

For what it's worth, currently, he's third in the AL in VORP with 48.7, behind Ian Kinsler (51.3) and teammate Grady Sizemore (48.8). Alex Rodriguez is next at 45.8.