Chemistry, morale and momentum (Tampa Bay Rays)

[HoustonGM]

You might be interested in this thread.

I see a 89-73 record, just short of the playoffs.

That's about what Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system projected before the season (I think it was 88-74, but that's off the top of my head).

I'm going to say that they win 94 games and the AL Wild Card. There defense has been MASSIVELY improved, from the worst of the last 50 years in 2007 (according to Defensive Efficiency) to one of the top in the league this year. Further, they've actually had a pretty tough schedule so far, so it's not as if they're beating up on much lesser teams and are due for a rude awakening when the schedule gets tougher.

Currently, according to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA-adjusted Postseason Odds, the Rays have a 92% chance of making the playoffs. The only team higher is the Cubs at 93%.

[OldFatGuy]

You might be interested in this thread.

Sorry, HGM, I never even looked in that one. Though to be fair, it's not named to make me think that was the "Are the Rays for Real" thread, though it did seem to take that turn. Feel free to merge this into that one if you want. Next time I'll try to be more diligent.

[HoustonGM]

Sorry, HGM, I never even looked in that one. Though to be fair, it's not named to make me think that was the "Are the Rays for Real" thread, though it did seem to take that turn. Feel free to merge this into that one if you want. Next time I'll try to be more diligent.

Okay, I'll merge.

[OldFatGuy]

WTF??? Boy, when I hit quote that post was a lot shorter! LOL

How do you find those predictions?? Please be precise, cause I'm lousy at searches. Thx.

[HoustonGM]

WTF??? Boy, when I hit quote that post was a lot shorter! LOL

How do you find those predictions?? Please be precise, cause I'm lousy at searches. Thx.

I included a link to the postseason odds

[OldFatGuy]

I included a link to the postseason odds

My bad. I clicked on that and all I saw was the standings. I didn't even look over at the other columns, I thought it was the usual other columns you see in standings. LOL.


EDIT: Boy the Rays are getting the breaks. They just ruled a DP on a play that would've scored a run for the runner sliding into the second baseman (the hitter was originally safe at first). Man, you don't see that called that often, and what a time for it to be called too.

[OldFatGuy]

Well, I don't know what stock to put into those calculations because I saw one that really stood out to me. It's got the Angels and A's as basically tied, with a 50/50 shot for each. No way do I see that. I really don't think the A's are gonna challenge the Angels all year long. I think the Rays have a better chance at challenging all year long than the A's.

PLUS, it way, way, way, over exaggerates the Nationals chances.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

I don't think the question is anymore whether the Rays will fade (way down) or not, but how many years they can sustain this success.

Will they be able to sign B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Eric Hinske, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnastine and all of their awesome bullpen pieces when their contracts expire?

Management appears committed to sustaining this success as long as possible and spending a lot more money than they have in the past. Plus don't discount all the money they get in revenue sharing from teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, etc., that money will go a long way to keeping the players the team needs to keep.

They don't even really need to worry about keeping all of them. I don't think they're all that concerned with keeping Hinske and Bartlett, especially with Beckham in the organization and the rest of the loaded farm system. I think they'll manage to keep at least Upton, Garza, and Kazmir (who, IMO, is the guy they really need to keep going forward). The Rays are a team that are going to sustain success with a few mainstays like Longoria, Upton, Kazmir, etc., and then keep it going by recycling players and drafting well and trading guys for prospects when they need to. The Rays farm is already deep enough and good enough to cover and loss they may incur in the next few seasons.

This year they won't finish best in baseball, and I can guarantee that. They will however compete for the division with the Red Sox and Yankees.

No, they probably won't, but would you bet your life on that, because I know I wouldn't. The Rays are an excellent team that can match up with any team in baseball right now and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they did finish with the best record baseball, though I wouldn't expect them to. Just because they've sucked in years past is no reason to believe they won't finish with the best record in baseball this season, they are EASILY one of the top three teams in baseball right now, along with the Red Sox and Cubs. They'll compete with the Red Sox, but both teams are so much better than the Yankees old, decrepit team its scary.

The really scary thing about the Rays, is that they have the prospects to make a move and get another hitter, or starter, or bullpen arm at the deadline if they want to. They really can only get better at this point. Another thing they have going for them is that they don't have one guy thats incredibly vital to the team's success, they're a classic example of a team being as good as the sum of its parts, without any single one of the parts being hugely more significant than another.

[Arctic Blast]

So long as they can keep the core of their young talent in Tampa, they're legit.

[HoustonGM]

Well, I don't know what stock to put into those calculations because I saw one that really stood out to me. It's got the Angels and A's as basically tied, with a 50/50 shot for each. No way do I see that. I really don't think the A's are gonna challenge the Angels all year long. I think the Rays have a better chance at challenging all year long than the A's.

Take a closer look. The reason it has that is because the A's have been outscoring their opponents by a larger margin than the Angels have. Now, that's not to say that the Angels won't keep up their incredible run in close games (see the Diamondbacks and Mariners last season), or that the A's won't fall back to earth, but that's why the odds are the way they are. Since it's just odds, the odds are that a team that is outscoring their opponents by a larger margin is more likely to do good than a team that is barely outscoring their opponents. (The A's have outscored their opponents by 59 runs, which coincidentally is the same run differential as the Rays... the Angels have outscored opponents by 12 runs).

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

So long as they can keep the core of their young talent in Tampa, they're legit.

That would certainly help . But I don't think they need to keep every single one of Crawford, Upton, Kazmir, Garza, etc., to keep up this success. Not with kids like Desmond Jennings, David Price, Tim Beckham, etc., waiting for their shot when they're ready.

[ohms_law]

Well, I don't know what stock to put into those calculations because I saw one that really stood out to me. It's got the Angels and A's as basically tied, with a 50/50 shot for each. No way do I see that. I really don't think the A's are gonna challenge the Angels all year long. I think the Rays have a better chance at challenging all year long than the A's.

PLUS, it way, way, way, over exaggerates the Nationals chances.

Unfortunately, I think you're incorrect about the A's and the Angels.

[koolzach1]

That would certainly help . But I don't think they need to keep every single one of Crawford, Upton, Kazmir, Garza, etc., to keep up this success. Not with kids like Desmond Jennings, David Price, Tim Beckham, etc., waiting for their shot when they're ready.

Yeah, but there is certainly no guarantee that these young prospects will actually develop into what Crawford, Upton, Kazmir, Garza, etc... have become.

[YEAH DAAAAWG]

Thats true, but management is committed to keeping at least some of them, as they have shown with Longoria and Pena, so as long as they can keep Upton and Kazmir, I think they'll be fine, those are the two really big fish in my opinion. I also think that Crawford will be willing to give a big time hometown discount, assuming they don't end up trading him, so he can stick around and contend with the Rays after losing with them for so long.

I don't think the Rays will have any trouble maintaining a high level of success for a great deal of time, especially since they're gonna start making the playoffs soon, and playoffs means more money and more money to spend and keep stars around.

[OldFatGuy]

Unfortunately, I think you're incorrect about the A's and the Angels.

LOL, I'm pretty confident on that one. A's have no shot. I feel so sure about it, I'd be willing to print out this post and eat it if the A's beat the Angels. And if I knew how to use this goshdarn built in WebCam on my new laptop I'd be happy to post it here. Unfortunately, I don't know how, and fortunately, I don't think it will even be close to being an issue. Angels have a much better team than the A's. Over 162 games, it will show.