John Maine 4TH IN THE ROTATION????

[RedsoxRockies]

I am gonna make a prediction:

Maine:0-1, 1/3IP, 328 HR, 156BB, 0K, 999.99 ERA, OPB .999
and a torn rotator cuff that ends the season. Other than that, acoording to my prediction, he shouldn't be half bad, just not half good either. More or less half and half between half good and half bad.

[DarthJaker]

I am gonna make a prediction:

Maine:0-1, 1/3IP, 328 HR, 156BB, 0K, 999.99 ERA, OPB .999
and a torn rotator cuff that ends the season. Other than that, acoording to my prediction, he shouldn't be half bad, just not half good either. More or less half and half between half good and half bad.

isn't that a little harsh?

[defense]

Based on what? O_o

Based on his career before he came to the Mets. And based on just looking at him pitch(he doesn't have good stuff in my opinion). I think the past two seasons he had was just based on a new league getting accustomed to him. I would be very suprised if he has an ERA under 4 this season

[HoustonGM]

Based on his career before he came to the Mets.

You mean, 43 innings of bad pitching as a 23 and a 24 year old? You know, that's meaningful.

And based on just looking at him pitch(he doesn't have good stuff in my opinion).

He's got a fastball that touches the mid-90s, along with three other solid pitches and he changes speeds well. And I'm sorry, but it's extremely difficult to strike out nearly a batter an inning without good stuff.

I think the past two seasons he had was just based on a new league getting accustomed to him. I would be very suprised if he has an ERA under 4 this season

I would not at all be surprised by an ERA under 4, but I wouldn't be surprised by an ERA over 4 either. I expect him to have an ERA slightly above league average, just as he was in 2007. League average is around 4.30 for a pitcher whose homepark is Shea.

[beerchaser]

Maine could be the first starter on the Nationals. I lollered when I saw Odalis Perez on the mound last night.

[QHowes]

My prediction is that the NY Post will soon report this item:

MAINE REQUESTS TRADE.

"I don't like being the fourth starter on the Mets," Maine said. "I think I could be the third starter on the Marlins."

followed by the next day's "Maine would be more comfortable on a team where he felt more comfortable" i had that one pop up the other day

[metsguy234]

Let's see, using actual numbers to make projections...

PECOTA: 10-7, 150 IP, 17 HR, 62 BB, 129 K, 4.13 ERA
.

And with Maine out for the season presumably PECOTA sweeps in for the win.

Thanks for playing everybody, the winning numbers were

10-8,140 IP,16 HR,67 BB,122 K, 4.18 ERA

I AM NOT kidding you, look it up.

All hail the mighty PECOTA

[QHowes]

wow

[HoustonGM]

And with Maine out for the season presumably PECOTA sweeps in for the win.

Thanks for playing everybody, the winning numbers were

10-8,140 IP,16 HR,67 BB,122 K, 4.18 ERA

I AM NOT kidding you, look it up.

All hail the mighty PECOTA

See how accurate it is when you actually use the facts and numbers to make a projection, instead of just pulling numbers out of thin air?

Some smart ass will likely chime in with an example of where PECOTA was way off, which they'll claim is somehow proof that the system sucks. Here's the thing - every reasonable projection system will get some dead-on projections, such as PECOTA did with John Maine, and some horribly off projections, simply because baseball is a very unpredictable game. The major projection systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Marcel, Bill James) are all pretty accurate. Most studies into which ones are better that I've seen have PECOTA comfortably ahead of the pack when it comes to hitters, and I believe ZiPS slightly ahead of the rest when it comes to pitchers. So, projection systems, particularly high-end ones like PECOTA, are fairly accurate. In some cases, they're astonishingly accurate, and in some cases, way off. That is all.

[filihok]

Some smart ass will likely chime in with an example of where PECOTA was way off, which they'll claim is somehow proof that the system sucks. Here's the thing - every reasonable projection system will get some dead-on projections, such as PECOTA did with John Maine, and some horribly off projections, simply because baseball is a very unpredictable game. The major projection systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Marcel, Bill James) are all pretty accurate. Most studies into which ones are better that I've seen have PECOTA comfortably ahead of the pack when it comes to hitters, and I believe ZiPS slightly ahead of the rest when it comes to pitchers. So, projection systems, particularly high-end ones like PECOTA, are fairly accurate. In some cases, they're astonishingly accurate, and in some cases, way off. That is all.

In summary: It's hard to accurately predict the future.

[HoustonGM]

In summary: It's hard to accurately predict the future.

No. It's hard to perfectly predict the future. Impossible, in fact. Just because a projection system doesn't perfectly predict the future does not mean that it doesn't accurately predict the future. PECOTA, along with the other major projection systems, all do a fine job of accurately predicting the future, overall.

[TheNamelessPoet]

I predict mets out 1st round

[filihok]

No. It's hard to perfectly predict the future. Impossible, in fact. Just because a projection system doesn't perfectly predict the future does not mean that it doesn't accurately predict the future. PECOTA, along with the other major projection systems, all do a fine job of accurately predicting the future, overall.

And you think the work they put in to do it is easy?

[HoustonGM]

And you think the work they put in to do it is easy?

Why the nitpicking?

[MeetDaMets]

interesting.

curious,
was the projection accounting for potential season ending injury ?

or was it projecting him to make 30 - 33 starts and get knocked out in the 5th inning on avg ?