McGwire not going to the HOF, ESPN thoughts

[HoustonGM]

I'm not actually. It's the same thing with Thome.

Than you lack a fundamental understanding of offense...

And what exactly is wrong with a .281 batting average (Thome's)?

[Coach Owens]

Than you lack a fundamental understanding of offense...

And what exactly is wrong with a .281 batting average (Thome's)?

Not high enough. He doesn't even have close to enough hits, either. He's not a great hitter with RISP, not a very good fielder and has been lately been playing DH mostly. He only has 507 HRs.

[boomboom]

what about his OBP?

If you only pay attention to Batting Average, you are looking only at a part of the offense.

Is his OPS high enough? If you know what that is.

[boomboom]

Only one player who has hit above 500 home runs, has not be elected to the HOF (and that one player is McGwire....)

[FRENCHREDSOX]

Only one player who has hit above 500 home runs, has not be elected to the HOF (and that one player is McGwire....)

I am not going into the debate of "worthiness" nor "does PED's affect HR production"* but simply state that McGwire has 15 years to get inducted (he is in year 2) .

At this moment in time,his induction,IMO,would send out the wrong messages in light of his actions & supposed actions (his Capitol Hill testimony,association with Canseco,Canseco's subsequent revelations & his usage of Andro) & the image of the HOF.

this pretty sums it up,I think

Nightengale points out that McGwire has barely more than 1,600 career hits, a low total by Hall-of-Fame standards, and that many of his home runs came after he's alleged to have begun using. The implication is that McGwire, without the help of PEDs, wouldn't have a case for enshrinement. "He's just a different guy than (Barry) Bonds or (Roger) Clemens," says Nightengale.

Nightengale didn't vote for McGwire in 2007 or 2008, but he says he will vote for Bonds and Clemens on the first ballot because they were, in his mind, Hall of Famers before their alleged forays into drug use.

"I don't believe the Mitchell report had much influence on the Hall-of-Fame balloting. There was nothing new on Mark McGwire in the report, and his vote total barely changed. In the years to come, if it becomes clear that an overwhelming majority of players used steroids, my guess is that some voters — including myself — might have to look at the entire era differently. McGwire, Barry Bonds and others would benefit if steroids were viewed as deeply embedded in the game's culture. At that point, it would be more difficult to single out individuals as unworthy Hall of Famers."
--Ken Rosenthal

* although I think the 2 are linked i.e. his worthiness is linked to whether his taking or NOT of PED's (& thus did or did not allow him to hit 500+ HRs).....

[HoustonGM]

Not high enough. He doesn't even have close to enough hits, either. He's not a great hitter with RISP, not a very good fielder and has been lately been playing DH mostly. He only has 507 HRs.

What, exactly, is a "high enough" batting average, for you? And, you do know that there's more to offense than batting average, right? And yeah, he only has 507 homers, but that works out to 41 homers per 162 games. Pretty darn good. His overall line is .281/.409/.565 with a 150 OPS+. With runners in scoring position, he's a .281/.436/.547 hitter. How is that not a great hitter with RISP?

What about Frank Thomas? He "only" has 513 homers and was mostly a DH, but has a career .303/.421/.561 line (157 OPS+), and from 1991 to 1997, he was an absolute MONSTER with his lowest OPS+ being 174.

Interesting little tidbit about this. Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, and Babe Ruth are the only other players since 1901 with at least 7 consecutive seasons of an OPS+ of 170 or more. Ruth actually had two SEPERATE 7-season streaks. That's some **** fine company.

You're really showing a distinct lack of knowledge about offensive production...

[Pavelb1]

nah, it was a few things, like the 95' Mariners, whoever watched the sport in 95' remember those Amazing Mariners, how about the Yankees Rise to domination and then the Home Run Chase of 98'



So yes, McGwire and the chase were part of what saved baseball after the strike. Now we have an all time high in Attendance...thanks to that. All of it.

That's actually a myth if you'll study the figures. After the strike there was a significant dip, but then figures started steadily rising until we get to the magical year of 1998. Attendance actually went DOWN after Sosa and McGuires year. Then one year later started rising again.

2003 and 2004's total figures are actually lower than in 1993.

I would posit the records set in 2006 and 2007 (which certainly have nothing to do with Mcguire and Sosa) are due to the explosion of Red Sox Nation than anything else.

[Coach Owens]

What, exactly, is a "high enough" batting average, for you? And, you do know that there's more to offense than batting average, right? And yeah, he only has 507 homers, but that works out to 41 homers per 162 games. Pretty darn good. His overall line is .281/.409/.565 with a 150 OPS+. With runners in scoring position, he's a .281/.436/.547 hitter. How is that not a great hitter with RISP?

What about Frank Thomas? He "only" has 513 homers and was mostly a DH, but has a career .303/.421/.561 line (157 OPS+), and from 1991 to 1997, he was an absolute MONSTER with his lowest OPS+ being 174.

Interesting little tidbit about this. Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, and Babe Ruth are the only other players since 1901 with at least 7 consecutive seasons of an OPS+ of 170 or more. Ruth actually had two SEPERATE 7-season streaks. That's some **** fine company.

You're really showing a distinct lack of knowledge about offensive production...

A lot of HRs is not what it used to be. Today in baseball, there are way more HRs being hit than there used to be. If everyone who has hit over 500 HRs but less than 600 are inducted into the HOF, it's going to be incredibly crowded. Besides most of the other 500 HR hitters had a higher BA, more hits, or was better at defense. You have to compare him to the other players at his position too. If you look at players like Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Rafael Palmerio and Eddie Murray, they were all better hitters than Thome.

[HoustonGM]

A lot of HRs is not what it used to be. Today in baseball, there are way more HRs being hit than there used to be. If everyone who has hit over 500 HRs but less than 600 are inducted into the HOF, it's going to be incredibly crowded.

There is only one eligible player with 500 HRs that is not in the Hall - McGwire. Bonds and Sosa would be in the Hall when their time comes if not for the steroid issue. Alex Rodriguez will be in the Hall. That leaves Frank Thomas and Jim Thome as the only other 500 HR hitters. Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield are the only other players that will definitly reach 500 HR. How in the world does that make the HOF incredibly overcrowded?

Yes, home runs are up now, but this idea that there's all of a sudden tons of 500 HR hitters is just flatout wrong.

Besides most of the other 500 HR hitters had a higher BA, more hits, or was better at defense. You have to compare him to the other players at his position too. If you look at players like Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Rafael Palmerio and Eddie Murray, they were all better hitters than Thome.

Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx are two all-time absolute greats. Most players compared to them aren't going to hold up.

Eddie Murray. He hit .287/.359/.476 with a 129 OPS+. Thome has hit .281/.409/.565 with a 150 OPS+. I don't know about you, but I'd trade 6 points of batting average for 50 points of on-base percentage and 90 points of slugging. Yes, Murray had more hits, but, uh, that's what happens when you have 4,495 more at bats. Thome has more HR than Murray in that many less times at bat.

Palmeiro hit .288/.371/.515 with a 132 OPS+. Again, I'd trade 7 points of average for 40 points of OBP and 50 points of slugging. And yup, Palmeiro has more hits, but 3,631 more at bats.

Palmeiro had one season with an OBP of .400. Murray had 2. Thome has had 9. Murray had no seasons of .600 slugging. Palmeiro had 1. Thome has had 3.

You need to stop placing so little emphasis on on-base percentage. You just can't get around it with any rational argument. Jim Thome has been an incredibly valuable offensive force. Was he Lou Gehrig or Jimmie Foxx? No. But not many players are. Jim Thome has the 4th highest AB/HR ratio in history, behind Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds. Combine his great home run power with his excellent ability to get on base, and there is no way around the fact that he is an incredibly good hitter, and very deserving of a Hall of Fame induction. He still has another 3-5 seasons left, as well and has shown no signs of slowing down offensively.

[Coach Owens]

There is only one eligible player with 500 HRs that is not in the Hall - McGwire. Bonds and Sosa would be in the Hall when their time comes if not for the steroid issue. Alex Rodriguez will be in the Hall. That leaves Frank Thomas and Jim Thome as the only other 500 HR hitters. Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield are the only other players that will definitly reach 500 HR. How in the world does that make the HOF incredibly overcrowded?

Yes, home runs are up now, but this idea that there's all of a sudden tons of 500 HR hitters is just flatout wrong.


Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx are two all-time absolute greats. Most players compared to them aren't going to hold up.

Eddie Murray. He hit .287/.359/.476 with a 129 OPS+. Thome has hit .281/.409/.565 with a 150 OPS+. I don't know about you, but I'd trade 6 points of batting average for 50 points of on-base percentage and 90 points of slugging. Yes, Murray had more hits, but, uh, that's what happens when you have 4,495 more at bats. Thome has more HR than Murray in that many less times at bat.

Palmeiro hit .288/.371/.515 with a 132 OPS+. Again, I'd trade 7 points of average for 40 points of OBP and 50 points of slugging. And yup, Palmeiro has more hits, but 3,631 more at bats.

Palmeiro had one season with an OBP of .400. Murray had 2. Thome has had 9. Murray had no seasons of .600 slugging. Palmeiro had 1. Thome has had 3.

You need to stop placing so little emphasis on on-base percentage. You just can't get around it with any rational argument. Jim Thome has been an incredibly valuable offensive force. Was he Lou Gehrig or Jimmie Foxx? No. But not many players are. Jim Thome has the 4th highest AB/HR ratio in history, behind Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds. Combine his great home run power with his excellent ability to get on base, and there is no way around the fact that he is an incredibly good hitter, and very deserving of a Hall of Fame induction. He still has another 3-5 seasons left, as well and has shown no signs of slowing down offensively.

What about defense? He's not very good. He has to have some of that as well.

[HoustonGM]

What about defense? He's not very good. He has to have some of that as well.

He more than makes up for his defense with his offense. For first basemen, good defense is a plus. It's the lowest position on the defensive spectrum. If you hit like Thome, below average defense is acceptable.

[Coach Owens]

He more than makes up for his defense with his offense. For first basemen, good defense is a plus. It's the lowest position on the defensive spectrum. If you hit like Thome, below average defense is acceptable.

So with your standards of HOF worthy players, do you think John Olerud deserves it? What about Mo Vaughn?

[HoustonGM]

So with your standards of HOF worthy players, do you think John Olerud deserves it? What about Mo Vaughn?

Olerud, no. He was a good defender, but besides a couple seasons, was about an average hitter for a first basemen. Mo Vaughn, no. His career was too short and his peak was not high enough to compensate for a short career.

Vaughn and Olerud are not at all comparable to Thome and McGwire.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

That's actually a myth if you'll study the figures. After the strike there was a significant dip, but then figures started steadily rising until we get to the magical year of 1998. Attendance actually went DOWN after Sosa and McGuires year. Then one year later started rising again.

2003 and 2004's total figures are actually lower than in 1993.

I would posit the records set in 2006 and 2007 (which certainly have nothing to do with Mcgwire and Sosa) are due to the explosion of Red Sox Nation than anything else.

Interesting analysis you can also factor in the economy & the rise of the Hispanic middle class plus the development in the late '90's of new ballparks that stimulated the market place.

It will be interesting to see how the fans' react in light of the Mitchell report - logic would be a fall off.....