Baltimore trade Tejada

[HoustonGM]

Yes,it will be "bad" for the Cardinals in 2008/9 .... Tejeda is guaranteed 26 million the WHOLE Central will be happy long term wise!

This is why I think the Matsui deal is worse. The Tejada deal improves the team in the short term, and makes it worse in the long term. The Matsui deal makes the team worse in the short team and worse in the long term.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

This is why I think the Matsui deal is worse. The Tejada deal improves the team in the short term, and makes it worse in the long term. The Matsui deal makes the team worse in the short team and worse in the long term.

This is a totally subjective statement & inaccurate on 4 counts:

1) There is no certitude that either player A or player B will be a benefit to the Astros (this will only be seen in 2008/9/10 & thus is subjective to past performance);
2) Astros at the time of the trade/FA signing had a "hole" at 2B but did have a MLB SS in Everett.Thus the Matsui signing filled a real need whereas the latter created a surplus - simple economics of man management;
3) Tejeda will cost 10 million more for 1 less year of play;
3) Matsui cost NOTHING except pecuniary wise,whereas Tejeda cost them 5 players including their top 3 prospects (including their top 2 pitchers for a team already lacking a 3 to 5 starter based on 2007 season!).


In a sport where pitching talent has never been at such a high premium & where Astros,at the time of trade have now traded away their 4 best milb pitchers' & a potential closer the above summation,IMO,means the Matsui deal is better than the Tejeda deal.Especially when you consider the total effect financially,organisation wise & return on future investment.The "2008 team" as it stands will still not be competitive to win the division so what is the logical point of finishing 3rd or 2nd & being even more uncompetitive into the 2010's ?


from BA:

PROJECTED 2011
LINEUP
Catcher J.R. Towles
First Base Lance Berkman
Second Base Chris Burke
Third Base Mike Constanzo
Shortstop Adam Everett
Left Field Carlos Lee
Center Field Michael Bourn
Right Field Hunter Pence
No. 1 Starter Roy Oswalt
No. 2 Starter Matt Albers
No. 3 Starter Felipe Paulino
No. 4 Starter Troy Patton
No. 5 Starter Wandy Rodriguez
Closer Chad Qualls

[HoustonGM]

1) There is no certitude that either player A or player B will be a benefit to the Astros (this will only be seen in 2008/9/10 & thus is subjective to past performance);

By this, your statement that the Matsui deal is better is totally subjective, because Matsui might hurt himself, not play at all throughout the contract, while Tejada puts up monster numbers for two years, and the 5 players the Astros let go all fizzle out.

When evaluating deals with an eye for the future, you have to somehow project what the players will do. No reasonable projection will rank Matsui better than Tejada. No reasonable projection ranks Matsui as a good player. Using what we currently know, Matsui does not improve the Astros now or in the future, while Tejada does improve them right now.

2) Astros at the time of the trade/FA signing had a "hole" at 2B but did have a MLB SS in Everett.Thus the Matsui signing filled a real need whereas the latter created a surplus - simple economics of man management;

1) How in the world is Everett a "MLB SS" yet Chris Burke is not a "MLB 2B"? Both are capable of starting in the major leagues. Burke is better than Matsui. There was no hole at 2B.
2) There is no surplus since Everett was non-tendered.

3) Tejeda will cost 10 million more for 1 less year of play;

$25 million for decent to good production over 2 years is a better investment than $15 million for bad production over 3 years.

3) Matsui cost NOTHING except pecuniary wise,whereas Tejeda cost them 5 players including there top 3 prospects.

Yes, which is why the Tejada deal is good in the SHORT TERM only and BAD in the long term. There is at least a positive side to the Tejada trade - it improves the team right now. There is no positive side to the Matsui deal. Overall, I think both deals are bad, so arguing over which is worse is probably unnecessary. Both deals are going to produce net negative effects for the team.

[SirKodiak]

Given his decline in stats over the last 3 years, and his age, plus his defensive drop in range, I am not so sure that the 08/09 seasons will be bad for the Cards. Matsui being overpaid at 2B is nice too, especially with Luke Scott trade away. Here are Scott's and then Tejada's numbers.

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+
 2007 29 HOU NL 132  369   49   94  28  5  18   64   3  1  53  95  .255  .351  .504  119
 2007 31 BAL AL 133  514   72  152  19  1  18   81   2  1  41  55  .296  .357  .442  109

[HoustonGM]

The Astros would've been a better team if they sat all off-season and did nothing.

Tejada only had a drop in performance this past season. He hit .330/.379/.498 in 2006. He was also injured this year.

[Robert]

Well, the Michael Bourn thing may or may not work..We do have some talent in the OF in the Astros minor league system, Eli Lorg, and Josh Flores. Both can be speedy OF's.

In terms of trading our pitching prospects, I don't think Albers would have made it in the Astros organization, I think he's better off in a pitchers park.

Sarfate is a shame along with Patton. All the Astros can hope is to draft a lot of pitchers this next MLB draft, and sign them. As far as our Rotation is concerned, we have have a legitimate #1 starter, Roy Oswalt, after that????

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez - Good at home, SUCKS on the Road.
3. Woody Williams - can anyone say a bust signing? 98 year old pitcher
4. Brandon Backe - showed promise at the end of last year coming back, can be a decent starter. Not good, but decent.
5. Chris Sampson - Good pitcher, not a power pitcher, relies on defense. () Showed good potential last year, till he started slumping and was pitching through injury.

We still have Fernando Nieve who was hurt all last year, he can start or put in bullpen.

Chad Qualls - Has been a good reliever since joining the Astros in 2004
Doug Brocail - Still a decent reliever, but, not sure hwo good he'll be at 40
Mark McLemore - I think this guy is gonna have a **** good reliever, control issues, but he's young, and he will be good.
Oscar Villarreal - decent reliever for Atlanta last few years, should be decent.
Dave Borkowski - sucks, lol

As far as that goes, I'm pretty biased, but I do think Ed Wade is gonna make a trade for a starter, I just hope it isn't someone like Livan Hernandez or some washed up starter.

[HoustonGM]

Well, he'd have to sign Livan Hernandez, not trade for him...and what is he going to trade for any reasonably decent starter?

[Robert]

Well, he'd have to sign Livan Hernandez, not trade for him...and what is he going to trade for any reasonably decent starter?

Not sure, Eli Lorg has promise and Josh Flores, lol...Max Sapp our "future catching ace" who knows, Koby Clemens, lmao...Chris Burke, Adam Everett, I don't know...

I just wish we can get someone who can be a starter behind Oswalt. Someone who won't blow goats like Woody Williams :P

[HoustonGM]

Everett's gone. Chris Burke and Eli Iorg/Josh Flores might be able to bring a warm body in, but i don't think the Astros have enough to trade for any sort of difference-maker in the rotation.

[FRENCHREDSOX]

Well, the Michael Bourn thing may or may not work..We do have some talent in the OF in the Astros minor league system, Eli Lorg, and Josh Flores. Both can be speedy OF's.

In terms of trading our pitching prospects, I don't think Albers would have made it in the Astros organization, I think he's better off in a pitchers park.

Sarfate is a shame along with Patton. All the Astros can hope is to draft a lot of pitchers this next MLB draft, and sign them. As far as our Rotation is concerned, we have have a legitimate #1 starter, Roy Oswalt, after that????

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez - Good at home, SUCKS on the Road.
3. Woody Williams - can anyone say a bust signing? 98 year old pitcher
4. Brandon Backe - showed promise at the end of last year coming back, can be a decent starter. Not good, but decent.
5. Chris Sampson - Good pitcher, not a power pitcher, relies on defense. () Showed good potential last year, till he started slumping and was pitching through injury.

We still have Fernando Nieve who was hurt all last year, he can start or put in bullpen.

Chad Qualls - Has been a good reliever since joining the Astros in 2004
Doug Brocail - Still a decent reliever, but, not sure hwo good he'll be at 40
Mark McLemore - I think this guy is gonna have a **** good reliever, control issues, but he's young, and he will be good.
Oscar Villarreal - decent reliever for Atlanta last few years, should be decent.
Dave Borkowski - sucks, lol

As far as that goes, I'm pretty biased, but I do think Ed Wade is gonna make a trade for a starter, I just hope it isn't someone like Livan Hernandez or some washed up starter.

This is the main contention to me,just using BA as a baseline you traded away
your 2011 #2 & #4 (remember that Albers is only 25 & Patton 22 - &

Albers has No. 3 starter potential but has failed to put all the pieces together thus far, perhaps because of a lack of focus and tough-to-repeat mechanics. At his best, he works consistently at 93-94 mph with his two-seam fastball and touches 97 with his four-seamer. Albers shows fair to good command of a hard curveball and changeup. A draft-and-follow from San Jacinto (Texas) JC in 2001, Albers won Double-A Texas League pitcher of the year honors in 2006



& Patton, 22, shows exceptional poise and command of three pitches, making him a safe bet to achieve No. 3 starter status. A ninth-round pick from a Texas high school in 2004, Patton's two-seam fastball ranges from 88-92 mph and he commands it to both sides of the plate. He employs a hard slider and changeup as secondary pitches.

) plus your future 3B in Constanza (24, joins his third team this offseason, having been traded from the Phillies to the Astros in November. He finished runner-up in the Double-A Eastern League's home run race with 27, employing a big, pull-happy swing that contributed to an EL-leading 157 strikeouts. Costanzo will take his walks, though, and he batted .270/.368/.490 for Reading. As he had in 2006, Costanzo heated up in August this year, batting .364/.445/.607 for the month.)

Throw in that Sarfate was a potential MR/set up guy & Scott a lefthanded hitter with a .276/.364/.534 career line against big league righthanders & last year batted .255/.351/.504 with 18 home runs and 64 RBIs in 369 at-bats then the added power from Tejeda is off set ,but hey I am a Red Sox fan!

[SirKodiak]

Livan Hernandez has value, even if it may only be as an innings eater. Averaging 6+ innings w/ 33 GS, he had 5 games of lasting only 4 innings, 3 of 5 innings, 10 of 6 innings, and 15 of 7+ innings (2 x 8 IP, 1 x 9 IP). I'd love to see the Cards get him for a reasonable price, he sure is a gigantic step up from Kip Wells.

[Robert]

FRENCHREDSOX, honestly. That 2011 BA means nothing to me. Would BA have predicted 3 years ago that the Astros would be where they are at now? Even with their prospects? No, in baseball things change, drafts, trades, signings, surprise prospects. I mean, who knows. We may have someone in the minors that may be the next Roy Oswalt.

When Oswalt was drafted, no one would have predicted him to be the ace he is today. So we could have a 48th round pick or whatever be the next Roy Oswalt.

[HoustonGM]

\When Oswalt was drafted, no one would have predicted him to be the ace he is today. So we could have a 48th round pick or whatever be the next Roy Oswalt.

Or Mike Piazza (he was taken in the 62nd round!)

[Robert]

Or Mike Piazza (he was taken in the 62nd round!)

Exactly, that's what I love about the draft. High picks can be busts, and low draft picks can be superstars. :P Have faith yee astros fans!! :P

[Alloutwar]

NEWS FLASH: After reading Robert's post above, Astros GM Ed Wade has traded next year's 1st and 2nd round draft picks for 5 52nd round picks.