Havent read this thread yet to see if this has been mentioned but Bostons the front runner to get Santana now!
No
**** No, I hate the yankees and I hope they all die!
Yes
**** Yesssssss!!!!!
<3 that dirty water
Havent read this thread yet to see if this has been mentioned but Bostons the front runner to get Santana now!
Registered User
Originally Posted by beerchaser
If they trade him before the season, it's a signal to everyone on the team and the fans that they don't think they have a chance to win in 2008. I don't think that they can afford to send that signal unless they're pretty sure that they can't win, and go into a rebuilding mode. Really, I personally don't think that they can win in 2008 and do think that they should start rebuilding, but I don't think the Twins see it that way. (And if I ran the team, I'd find a way to sign Santana and rebuild around him, but that's not how things get done nowdays.)
BOOM!
You don't build around a 29 year old pitcher, whose only going to play once every 5 days when healthy, no matter how good he is. You build around a young, every day hitter like Young, Mauer, or Morneau.
Active Dynasty
An Alternate History Dynasty - The 1989 Red Sox
Paused Dynasty
Fishing for Wins - A Florida Marlins Dynasty
I'm not the only one who knows the truth about Matt Ryan.
Oh no, not him again
I hear you dps but you have to be realistic and consider who is in control of the Twins. Pohlad is stinking rich but still tight with a dollar. He's not going to give Santana market value, so the Twins have to extract as much value as they can for him, not just for next year but the next 3-5 years. It appears that the Twins may have their dream scenario building, with the Yankers and Red Suxgetting in a bidding war. The only thing better for them would be to get the Dodgers and Angels involved too because of their stocked farm systems, but from what I hear the Dodgers may be more interested in Erik Bedard. The Angels could be a factor for Johan, but they just gave Torii Hunter WAY too much money and they are actually looking to trade away pitching for another hitter, supposedly Miguel Cabrera. Both teams are apparently caught up in this Cabrera ****, where the Marlins are trying to play the LA teams against each other. Both of them are going to wait until the price comes down, I think.
o
The Twins can contend without Santana, as long as they upgrade their offense.
E=I*R
In 2007, the Twins were 79-83. They scored 718 runs, and allowed 725 runs. Santana pitched 219 innings and ended up with a 3.33 ERA. If we figure that they replace him with an "average" pitcher who will end up with about a 4.20 ERA and everything else stays about the same that means that they'll allow about 21 more runs against or 745 runs.
At 745 runs against, they need to score about 896 runs in order to have a decent chance at a 95-67 record or better. Adding run production does improve your chances faster, but really they need to be able to do that without compromising their run prevention at all, at this point.
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
o
Don't forget Francisco Liriano is coming back.
And note, I said "contend" not "contend for league's best record"
Hates Your Favorite Band
Boston gains in Santana race
As Red_Sox_Fan_734 pointed out, it looks like the Sox are now in the lead for Santana. I have to ask, as a red sox fan - why?? We just went out and overpaid for Schilling to return ($8+ mil with incentives on top of that), and gave Lowell a huge deal. I know the World Series win probably generated a huge cash influx, but...we already have an amazing rotation - and its overfilled! Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester, Tavarez, and Buchholz waiting for a spot...the last few years we haven't even had space to put Lester and Buchholz in unless someone else had an injury. And this isn't even mentioning the spot-starters we've dealt away (Kason Gabbard, Bronson Arroyo) or relegated to bullpen work (Kyle Snyder).
This is one deal I don't want to see - we've already won two WS in four years, we already have a stellar rotation, and we already have the second-highest payroll in baseball. I don't want us to get like the Yankees, and start stockpiling expensive talent in some hoarding fashion...I am perfectly happy seeing the young guys excel, like Papelbon, Pedroia, and Youkillis have. If we bring in Santana, and have to pay him $15-$19mil a year, along with Beckett and Matsuzaka...well, I just don't want to be looked at the way the Yankees are.
Unless the Twins are using our deal as a pushing point to get more from other clubs, or we are trying to block the deal to the Yankees, I am not sure if I see the bright side of this.
The thing is Schilling & Wakefield cannot be counted on to make 20+ starts (as seen by the last couple of years) - so suddenly if they do fail then your rotation is Beckett,Dice-K,Lester,Tavarez & Buchholz....When you consider the age of Buchholz,the "Lester" situation & Tavarez's inconsistency the Sox aren't as loaded as they appear on paper.
To be honest,it would be "foolish" of Epstein not to ask what the Twins want for the premium Left Handed Pitcher in the game.At 29 he is in his peak years & has at least 3 to 6 years at this plateau barring a major injury or a regression.
If they (the Sox) can get him WITHOUT give up a major piece,& it appears that the Twins want Coco (who is now 4th outfielder in Fenway) plus Bowden (who figures to be a #3) & Lowrie (Pedrioa clone IMHO) then getting him not only strengthens the Sox but also weakens 2 rival AL teams (both the Twins & indirectly the Yankees,who have no bona-fida ACE as of today).
It does not hurt either to push up the price the Yankees are willing to pay either,& from the Twins viewpoint getting more & more teams into the mix can only be beneficial.
Hates Your Favorite Band
All good points. Certainly - I wouldn't want him to just ignore the ace on the market while he is shopped around - but from a fan standpoint, with our payroll, I just don't want to start getting into that Yankee-range, being the poster boy for driving player prices up and becoming an 'Evil Empire'.
If Lowrie is a Pedrioa at Shortstop, maybe we could switch him for Lugo inthe deal, instead?
Are you saying Bowden is in the deal and Lester is out? That report just lists Crisp, Lester, Lowrie and potentially Masterson.
I guess, after Freddy Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, and Cla Meredith and Gabbard and Arroyo...I am just sick of us sending our young talent off, so they can become stars somewhere else. When they stick around, like Pap and Pedroia and Youk, (and now Ellsbury) it gives me someone to root for and grow to really admire, unlike Drew or Manny, or other big-money stars that we bring in.
I just really hope that it is a move to slow the Yankees pursuit and drive up the price, they way they've screwed up our other pursuits over the years (Contreras, Mirabelli trade recently).
Hates Your Favorite Band
Hmm...I still don't know, though - in your argument you remove Schilling and Wakefield entirely - with their age, it's conceivable that they might be out for some stretches, but even removing both of those you still have Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Tavarez, and can call up Buchholz - or have Snyder make a spot-start (which they didn't have to do at all this year).
Tavarez may be inconsistent, but in the world of 5th starters, I think he is just fine. I actually felt bad that we left him off the post-season roster entirely, with all his contribution over the season. I actually don't like his personality or think he's a great pitcher, but he did OK.
Going for the best lefty on the trade market is defensible in many different ways, no matter who your team is - but we just won a world series, and we're bringing back every starting player from that championship world series team. Maybe it's a conscience thing...it just seems a little greedy, I guess.
Twins are moving Santana because they CANT or WONT pay him so they wont take Coco & Lugo ,lol!All good points. Certainly - I wouldn't want him to just ignore the ace on the market while he is shopped around - but from a fan standpoint, with our payroll, I just don't want to start getting into that Yankee-range, being the poster boy for driving player prices up and becoming an 'Evil Empire'.
If Lowrie is a Pedrioa at Shortstop, maybe we could switch him for Lugo inthe deal, instead?
The deal is not finalized,lol,but Lester & Bowden have been equally mentioned - basically what ESPN/Fox/MLB.com have are Lowrie + Crisp + 2 others both pitchers (I assume that Boston & Minnesota are exchanging names).Yankees have balked on Cano so with the Sox offering a "cheap" MLB CF it does mean the NYY team have to add more in....
It all depends WHO & WHAT you get back ---- remember that Hanley brought Lowell & Beckett (which won the 07 World series),Sanchez was a deadline deal as was Gabbard.Arroyo was a deal for Wily Mo & his potential,but Bronson was & is no better than a 3/4 in the AL.
Under Epstein,the Sox have actually produced & kept their talent - you mentioned them yourself - Ellsbury,Moss,Papelbon,Youkilis,Pedroia,Lester are ALL home-grown/draftees, trades are part n parcel of the game - & without them Lowe,Tek,Schilling & Pedro would never have played & those 2 titles WOULD not have happened....Bosox have more homegrown talent now than in the 90's when the only "real" Bosox achievement was Trot.
It is by dealing that you maintain your supremacy,especially if those parts you deal are not in your daily/yearly plans eg Kabbard/Murphy or even Hanley who was seen to have to many extra baseball issues to be successful in Boston (ie Manny II but without the pedigree
Registered User
Better watch them Marlins they might slip in the backdoor here. With Santana and D-Train it just might push them to get their new stadium done and they have alot of young players to offer.
<3 that dirty water
Well, in the trade, Lester would be traded so that leaves Beckett, Santana. Dice, Schilling, Tavarez, Bucholz, and Wake. Tavarez is inconsistent and i wouldnt trust him in our rotation. Which leaves 6 starters. Buchholz started iff great last year, but you never know, it5 may have been beginners luck. That leaves 5 starters. Now assume as FRS said Wake and Schill are both injured somepoint in the year. Buchholz goes back in the rotation. So basically we hve this:
Beckett, Santana, Dice-K, Schilling, Wake
Or with injuries
Beckett, Santana, Dice-K, Wake or Schill, Buccholz.
That leaves us with 2 aces in Santana and Beckett. If this year was just an adjustment year for Dice-K(which i think it was) if he can turn it around like Beckett this year then thats 3 aces. Add in Schilling, probably a #2 on most other teams, Wakefield's crazy knuckleball and a possilble ROY candidate in Buchholz. 2008 WS here we come!
Hates Your Favorite Band
3 aces?? Thats my question - is that really necessary?
I guess I am most concerned that, two years down the road, Pedroia, Youk, Pap and Ellsbury are going to be wanting decent money. Ortiz, Beckett, and others will want huge payroll as well. If we go nab the great hope Santana, and extend his contract at $18mil or something...that's money we won't be able to allocate elsewhere, and those young players could head off - or we could be forced to deal them.
What if Lester is the best lefty in the market at that point, and Santana has fizzled? Or Pedro'd out? As a GM, I've certainly been loathe to give up on the young (cheap, happy) talent, especially for very expensive, top-shelf guys that have huge demands and could easily be negated via injury or quick decline. For me, the incremental gain (say, rotation going to 94 rating to 100 rating) isn't worth the cost.
But I admit, I am not a normal fan; I would rather not have A-rod on the team, and I would rather have kept Trot than signed Drew (weren't their numbers identical? And wasn't Trot about $11mil cheaper?). I am not just concerned with having the best player in every way possible, including taking other team's #1s and putting them in as my #3 or #4. What's next - trade away Buchholz and some others for the best catcher available, to backup Varitek in '08 'just in case' he goes down with injury?
At some point, when you are lucky enough to have such an amazing team, you really have to look very hard at deals like this and see if it is worth giving up great young talent when you really don't need any more pieces to be the best.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote