My point, was that if the runners ahead of Rice were just a shade faster than the average crippled tortoise, or even just better baserunners, Rice's rate of grounding into double plays would have been quite a bit lower. The whole ground into double play stat is not a very good one, as there are far too many outside influences on that number for it to be a good indicator.Originally Posted by HoustonGM
E=I*R
Here it is. Had to wait to get home form work before posting this, but here's some real rate numbers to consider:
Jim Rice:Code:yearID AB GIDP Rate 1933 85222 1105 0.012966136 1934 85911 968 0.011267474 1935 86437 910 0.010527899 1936 87638 1003 0.011444807 1937 85963 956 0.011121064 1938 85013 1038 0.012209897 1939 84879 1945 0.022914973 1940 86003 1825 0.02122019 1941 85854 1869 0.021769516 1942 83731 1756 0.020971922 1943 84701 1881 0.02220753 1944 85665 1853 0.021630771 1945 84447 1710 0.020249387 1946 84333 1865 0.022114712 1947 84436 1938 0.022952295 1948 84411 1934 0.022911706 1949 84380 2132 0.025266651 1950 84823 2226 0.026242882 1951 85065 2146 0.025227767 1952 84195 1966 0.023350555 1953 84997 2029 0.023871431 1954 83936 1959 0.023339211 1955 83590 1940 0.023208518 1956 83856 1984 0.023659607 1957 84906 1970 0.023202129 1958 83827 2062 0.02459828 1959 84294 1837 0.021792773 1960 84014 1914 0.022781917 1961 97032 2232 0.023002721 1962 110688 2487 0.02246856 1963 109814 2256 0.020543829 1964 110464 2394 0.021672219 1965 109739 2363 0.02153291 1966 109467 2355 0.021513333 1967 109205 2245 0.020557667 1968 108622 2217 0.02041023 1969 131287 2900 0.022089011 1970 132140 3020 0.022854548 1971 130544 3092 0.023685501 1972 124828 2797 0.022406832 1973 132363 3129 0.023639537 1974 132256 3084 0.023318413 1975 131473 3013 0.022917253 1976 131525 2910 0.022125071 1977 143974 3139 0.021802548 1978 141567 3076 0.021728228 1979 142792 3326 0.023292621 1980 144160 3363 0.023328246 1981 94467 2208 0.023373241 1982 144149 3147 0.021831577 1983 143538 3296 0.02296256 1984 143829 3193 0.022199974 1985 143075 3295 0.023029879 1986 143106 3119 0.021795033 1987 144095 3124 0.021680142 1988 142568 3087 0.021652825 1989 142821 3064 0.021453428 1990 142768 3077 0.021552449 1991 142968 3021 0.021130603 1992 142895 3109 0.021757234 1993 154995 3431 0.022136198 1994 110266 2442 0.022146446 1995 138571 3145 0.022695946 1996 156801 3609 0.023016435 1997 155438 3440 0.02213101 1998 167116 3705 0.022170229 1999 167136 3837 0.022957352 2000 167290 3893 0.023270967 2001 166234 3653 0.021975047 2002 165582 3845 0.023221123 2003 166737 3850 0.023090256 2004 167353 3784 0.022610888 2005 166335 3917 0.023548862 2006 167341 3953 0.023622424 All 8747941 191363 0.021875205
All Red Sox during Jim Rice's playing time:Code:yearID AB GIDP Rate 1974 67 2 0.029850746 1975 564 19 0.033687943 1976 581 18 0.030981067 1977 644 21 0.032608696 1978 677 15 0.022156573 1979 619 16 0.025848142 1980 504 16 0.031746032 1981 451 14 0.031042129 1982 573 29 0.05061082 1983 626 31 0.049520767 1984 657 36 0.054794521 1985 546 35 0.064102564 1986 618 19 0.030744337 1987 404 22 0.054455446 1988 485 18 0.037113402 1989 209 4 0.019138756 All 8225 315 0.038297872
He was always a bit high, but for most of his career he was only around 1% higher than the MLB average. The Red Sox were also always high and still are above average to this day, as a team. Of course, Jim's total's are in there (I could remove them, but I'm just not up to it right now, and I don't think it's that important anyway). I don't have the actual Fenway numbers (courtesy of Retrosheet) handy that I can post right at the moment, but the park average for GIDP has always been and still is a tad bit high, believe it or not.Code:yearID SumOfAB SumOfGIDP 1974 5499 128 0.023276959 1975 5448 137 0.025146843 1976 5511 127 0.023044819 1977 5510 132 0.023956443 1978 5587 135 0.024163236 1979 5538 158 0.028530155 1980 5603 151 0.026949848 1981 3820 98 0.02565445 1982 5596 171 0.030557541 1983 5590 171 0.03059034 1984 5648 148 0.026203966 1985 5720 164 0.028671329 1986 5498 142 0.025827574 1987 5586 129 0.023093448 1988 5545 139 0.025067628 1989 5666 169 0.029827038 All 87365 2299 0.026314886
The only real problem period for him, during his career, was the 1982 - 85 and 87 seasons. Coincidentally enough, those were basically his better seasons for batting average.
One thing to be real careful about here though is that these numbers are extremely susceptible to variation. Check this out: Below is Jim Rice's GIDP rate table, which I gave above. The Margin column is the standard Margin of Error for this rate, which is a straightforward calculation which shows the 95% confidence interval. What that means is that we can be sure that the "true" rate is within the range of rates between the actual observed rate both plus the Margin and minus the margin. It's calculated by: 1.96*(SQRT(Rate-(1-Rate)/Number of chances)).
so, for example, his 1986 GIDP real rate would be within the range of: [.366 - -.304]...Code:yearID AB GIDP Rate Margin (+/-) 1974 67 2 .030 .243 1975 564 19 .034 .350 1976 581 18 .031 .336 1977 644 21 .033 .346 1978 677 15 .022 .282 1979 619 16 .026 .305 1980 504 16 .032 .338 1981 451 14 .031 .333 1982 573 29 .051 .434 1983 626 31 .050 .429 1984 657 36 .055 .453 1985 546 35 .064 .490 1986 618 19 .031 .335 1987 404 22 .054 .447 1988 485 18 .037 .367 1989 209 4 .019 .236 All 8225 315 .038 .383
Obviously, that's nonsense. how can you have a negative percentage chance to hit into a double play? lol
The same is true for all individual players, though (of those few 10's of players that I've actually looked at). The important thing to recognize is that all GIDP numbers are very much driven by luck. This makes intuitive sense as well, since turning a double play relies on hitting a grounder, the opposing fielders being able to actually field the ball, and the runner ahead of the batter actually being caught. That's a lot of stuff that needs to happen, you know? That being said, it's obvious that the basic trends are meaningful.
Jim Rice did hit into many double plays. However, he played for a team that often hit into double plays. He played in a park that somehow encourages double plays. He played during a time period when more double plays were turned (...sort of). Most importantly, and I keep coming back to this, he hit with extraordinary power, especially for his time period. He was extremely consistent from year to year. And lastly, his power came from much more than Home Runs.
I'd put Jim Rice in, and I'd most certainly want him on my team.
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
Some call me Mr.Biggles
Define best. and Players and today. and MLB.
Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are .
o
All I said was that he grounded into a lot of double plays. I did not say anything about why, or what that means, just that he did...and well, he did.
I certainly wouldn't mind him being on my team, although I don't think I'd put him in the Hall.
Registered User
There is reason to defend yourself.Rice is a boardline HOF canidate. In theory that means that less than 75% of the voting members of the Baseball's Writers association thinks he should be in.
Edgar hasn't been voted apon yet, and it takes 5 years to evaluate a player.
o
Rice is a borderline HOF candidate - and I tend to lean towards him being on the borderline, and not in the Hall.
I agree. He should have been less vain and worn the glasses then, that he wears now. He didn't, he missed the marks, thank you Jim Rice, we love you, but you didn't quite make it. Then again there's Kirby Puckett's similar case as a precedent.
E=I*R
See, that's the kind of player that I compare him to...Then again there's Kirby Puckett's similar case as a precedent.
According to his actual similarity scores though, his most comparable players are:
1. Orlando Cepeda (911) *
2. Andres Galarraga (893)
3. Ellis Burks (882)
4. Duke Snider (882) *
5. Joe Carter (866)
6. Dave Parker (856)
7. Billy Williams (854) *
8. Moises Alou (850)
9. Willie Stargell (842) *
10. Luis Gonzalez (841)
And hey, Cepeda is in...
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
o
Moises Alou and Rice are actually very close....
.303/.369/.517 for Alou vs. .298/.352/.502 for Rice. They both have a 128 OPS+, adjusted for park and league. Alou's 50 homers short. Rice has 2 more All Star Games, plus the one MVP. They both were incredibly consistent. Both have a career high OPS+ of 157. Rice was more consistently in the top of the MVP voting (6 top 5 finishes vs. Moises' 2), but Moises did place in the top 20 6 times to Rice's 8.
And i don't know...I don't think Alou's going to get as much of a Hall of Fame following as Rice has gotten...and if Rice had played in a city that wasn't Boston, I don't think he'd be getting as much recognition as he is (nor do I think he would've even had the necessary stats to get the recognition. His OPS was over 100 points higher at Fenway than on the road.)
E=I*R
Rice is being "punished" for being a DH, I think (which is ****, IMHO). Alou is really more about playing in Montreal and Houston, and just not getting recognition. Yea, he played on the Cubs, but he was mostly past his peak by then, and that probably hurts some as well since he was sort of a disappointment to the Cubbies, from what I remember.
Didn't Moises Alou become involved in some sort of scandal, as well? Something about him is tickling my memory...
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
o
He was the dude that almost caught the Steve Bartman ball?
E=I*R
Oh yea!
lol
...actually, there was something else that's just on the edge of my memory, though. I'm almost positive it wasn't steroids, but something like that.
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
E=I*R
Ah:
That must be what I was thinking about.Alou and Cubs reliever Kent Mercker reportedly had confrontation with Cubs announcer Steve Stone on a team flight. The Cubs refused to offer arbitration and let him go, citing numerous fights with umpires whom claimed had a vendetta against him.
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
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Die hard baseball fan since 1994
Die hard Astros fanatic since 1996
And getting worse every season.
Oh no, not him again
Moises Alou pees on his hands, ostensibly to make the skin on his hands tougher or so I have heard, but just plain weird imo. If I ever meet the guy, ain't no way I'm shaking hands with him.
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