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Thread: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

  1. #1
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    Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Listed below are the AL rookies from a simulated 2008 season, with some stats:

    Orioles SP Jason Berkan - 27 GS, 11-8, 4.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 155 IP, 103 K, 44 BB
    Angels RP Jose Arredondo - 46 G, 4-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 100.1 IP, 83 K, 36 BB
    Mariners RP Alan Ellis - 38 G, 2-3, 7.53 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 71.2 IP, 43 K, 60 BB
    Devil Rays CF Alex Puita - 154 G, 519 AB, .191/.225/.293, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB
    Devil Rays SS Reid Brignac - 71 G, 281 AB, .292/.351/.520, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 4 SB
    Tigers 1B Jeff Larish - 105 G, 384 AB, .289/.360/.448, 15 HR, 54 RBI
    Indians RF Brad Snyder - 100 G, 345 AB, .238/.322/.391, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB
    White Sox C Greg Kennethson - 74 G, 241 AB, .237/.280/.349, 4 HR, 15 RBI
    Red Sox SS Robert Valido - .228/.274/.325, 3 HR, 31 RBI
    Red Sox C George Kottaras - 74 G, 248 AB, .246/.318/.367, 5 HR, 34 RBI

    Now, clearly, this is a poor rookie class. In real life, playing time isn't factored that much into the Rookie of the Year awards - Ryan Howard took the award after appearing in just 88 games. In Mogul, I think playing time is factored in WAY too much.

    I think that if the real-life voters were to place the above players in order of how much they think the player deserves the ROTY honors, I think it's reasonable and we can all agree on an order somewhat like this:

    Tigers 1B Jeff Larish
    Orioles SP Jason Berkan
    Devil Rays SS Reid Brignac
    Angels RP Jose Arredondo
    Indians RF Brad Snyder
    Red Sox C George Kottaras
    Red Sox SS Robert Valido
    White Sox C Greg Kennethson
    Devil Rays CF Alex Puita
    Mariners RP Alan Ellis

    I think there'd be debate amongst the top 3, but clearly, Larish, Berkan, and Brignac are, in some order, the top 3 rookies. Certainly, Alex Puita isn't close to the top at all, yet he was awarded the Rookie of the Year award in Mogul, and I think the two main factors in this are:

    1) Playing time is too heavily factored in. It should be factored in loosely.
    2) Pitchers are severely undervalued. I base this conclusion on both past experiences, as well as looking at this one. Even with the fact that playing time is overvalued for position players, cut out all the position players besides Puita, and compare Puita to Berkan, who in starting 27 games surely played a nearly full season. Even if Puita and Berkan were the only two contenders, Puita would not win this award.

  2. #2
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work... still.
    You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann

  3. #3
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    True!

  4. #4
    MeetDaMets Guest

    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    i think there may have been a thread about this already, not sure though...

  5. #5
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Like 40, all related. Ai needs worked on cy young, mvp, all-stars, etc. Yes we know this.
    Water brings life to all, or can end it on a whim.

  6. #6
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Quote Originally Posted by MeetDaMets View Post
    i think there may have been a thread about this already, not sure though...
    There's been tons in the past, but I wanted to start over clean as a lot of them got clogged.

    Quote Originally Posted by WATERY
    Like 40, all related. Ai needs worked on cy young, mvp, all-stars, etc. Yes we know this.
    The Cy Young and MVP awards rarely, if ever, have such OBVIOUS mistakes as the Rookie of the Year award does. You may disagree with the choices for Cy Young and MVP, but the game rarely picks an undeserving player, as it does with the Rookie of the Year. Also, the reasons why the ROTY award AI needs more work are quite obvious (playing time/emphasis on pitchers), while there isn't much to say on the Cy Young and MVP because as I said, they nearly always pick deserving candidates.

    There's no need to be snide about me posting this, please.

  7. #7
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Never really saw a problem with MVP or All-star.

    I tend to believe that ROY and Gold Glove needs some work.

    I can't figure out how guys with superior ratings and defensive stats don't win while lesser guys do.

  8. #8
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    The playoff MVP seems to be heavily weighted to pitchers, but at least picks good pitchers.

    Ian

  9. #9
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Here's some more fuel for the fire.

    Ryan Adams won the Rookie of the Year with a .570 OPS - because he played 156 games.

    Dustin Martin hit .254/.310/.338 in 120 games. Dan Walhouse hit .249/.338/.378 in 112 games. Zach Britton went 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA in 133 innings (11 GS, 23 relief). Here's the guy that got incredibly jipped...

    Leon Dorribo appeared in 31 games, 26 starts, and went 13-8 with a 3.90 ERA.

    It really needs to stop weighing playing time, and middle infielders, so heavily, and start weighing pitchers more...

    There is no excuse for a .570 OPS winning Rookie of the Year unless he happened to be the only rookie with considerable playing time.

    Surprisingly, it got the NL ROTY right...I guess because he was so incredibly good despite "just" 119 games. .348/.384/.473, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 27 SB.

  10. #10
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Is there any easy way to see which players are eligible for ROY?

    For what it's worth, in my current game I've only completed one season so far, but it seems to have selected reasonable candidates. The AL winner was Ryan Braun, who hit .285/.333/.496 in 140 games. Not great, but certainly not a bad rookie performance. He also had 100 RBIs with 97 runs scored, 29 HRs, and was successful on 16 of 19 stolen bases attempts. His defense at 3rd isn't impressive, though.

    In the NL, the winner was Hunter Pence, who had pretty similar numbers to Brauns: .271/.332/.483. He had a bit less playing time than Braun (123 games, and 443 ABs compared to Braun's 579), so his counting numbers were noticably less impressive, and he's not nearly as good a baserunner. Defensively, he's basically a CF version of Braun--servicable, but nothing more. Not that ROY voters care about defense, anyway.

  11. #11
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    Quote Originally Posted by dps View Post
    Is there any easy way to see which players are eligible for ROY?
    What I do is go to find players, set it to only find players making under $500,000, and whose age is under 30 (I know rookie of the year candidates can be older than 30, but, the ones that are in real life are often Japanese imports, which the game doesn't have), and then sort it by "Experience." It depends on when you search, but, if you search AFTER the award is voted on, anyone with 1 year experience was eligible.

    As for your two examples, it gets it right when theres a good/decent hitting candidate. When all the candidates suck at hitting in full playing time, or were okay at hitting in less playing time, it goes to the full-playing time guy. Pitchers have to have really really good years to beat out hitters, unless there is barely any eligible hitters.

  12. #12
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    Re: Rookie of the Year AI Needs Work

    It sure does
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