Ouch! Can we all just get along?Originally Posted by WATERY
Registered User
Ouch! Can we all just get along?
E=I*R
*sigh*
It's the same three of you in every other thread, with the same tired, stupid comments about each other. And yes, I called all three of you stupid. Quit acting that way, and it won't happen again.
Shut up already, all three of you.
geez
You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that! -J. von Neumann
Banned
Sorry, won't happen again.
Water brings life to all, or can end it on a whim.
eric gagne of boston.
case closed.
o
I already went over Gagne.
Also, even assuming Gagne does have some underlying condition that makes him struggle in non-save situations, that is not factual evidence that a lot of closers struggle in non-save situations.
Banned
OK, who wants to do the research on rivera in save and non save situations?
Water brings life to all, or can end it on a whim.
o
I've got nothing better to do, so I guess since the only way I know of is to go through his game log, I will.
o
Well, I did this all by hand, and apparantly I'm missing two appearances. I've got this in save situations:
32 games, 33.2 IP, 27 hits, 6 walks, 37 strikeouts, 9 runs, 2.44 ERA
In non-save situations:
32 games, 33 IP, 33 hits, 8 walks, 40 strikeouts, 12 runs, 3.27 ERA
The numbers are a bit off. I'm missing two appearances, 4 or so innings, there's two extra walks, and three extra strikeouts, and missing a run, but the numbers are close enough to show that there's basically no difference in how he pitches in different situations.
Registered User
However it's enoughthat if I was the coach I might see whatthe rest of my bullpen could do. They have also found through this trial and error that Joba and Mariano make a great tandem.
Registered User
And they're in the playoffs!
o
It's not anything. The difference is 6 hits. The reason there's a difference is because 33 innings both way is a small sample size. There's no excuse for using Jeff Karstens and Jose Veras in a tie game, and then Joba and Mo in a 12-2 game. That's just ridiculous...
Registered User
you do understand that not everyone manages the game based on statistical and probability analysis, don't you?
How many threads are you going to start that are all based on the false premise that there is a "right" way to manage the game?
Some managers, for example, actually talk to human beings and do completely ridiculous stuff like ask their pitching coach who they think looks good or needs work that day. I know it's incredibly stupid to talk to your staff when all you have to do is flip through a couple printouts to see what you should do, but a shocking number of managers still adhere to the archaic notion that you can find things out about people by looking at them and talking to them.
I know it sounds crazy, but it's true.
o
Show me what you can find out by looking at Jose Veras and Jeff Karstens that show that they are more capable of holding a tie game than Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera, and what you find out by looking at Joba and Mo that indicates it's more helpful to the team to pitch them in a 12-2 game than a tie game.
Sorry, this isn't even a close call. There is no analysis, statistical or otherwise, that would ever peg Jeff Karstens as being better for a high leverage situation than Mariano Rivera.
While there is no "right" way to manage a game as a whole, as many different managerial philosophies work, there are decisions that are clearly wrong, and decisions that are clearly right - decisions that clearly increase your chance sof winning, and decisions that clearly decrease them.
Registered User
imagine these conversations:
Day 1
Torre: Get Mariano ready.
Guidry: Mo's hung over. Him and Joba got in late last night.
Torre: @#$%, who looked good in warmups?
Guidry: Veras and Karstens.
and..... scene
Day 2
Torre: Ron, tell Mo to get ready.
Guidry: Skip, it's 12-2.
Torre: I know, but he wasn't ready yesterday, so he's gonna pitch today.
and.... scene
or this scenario:
Rivera stubs his toe in the locker room before the game. The Yankees need to win one of their next 8 games to "clinch" a playoff spot. Guidry tells Torre Rivera was favoring the toe during warmups. Torre figures the Yankees don't "need" this win at all, and decides not to risk Rivera tweaking something because he's got a sore toe.
there are a million things that go on day-to-day that PRODUCE the stats that say Rivera and Chamberlain are better pitchers than Karstens and Veras. One of those things is Torre deciding when to use them.
There are also countless reasons that could explain Torre's decision in this particular instance: maybe he wants to build a guys confidence heading into the postseason, maybe he wants to look at some guys in pressure situations now so he has that info later, maybe he's thinking he might need a third "closer" at some point in the playoffs if the Yankees have several tight games in a row, maybe he just wanted to cross his bullpen up so they'd ALL be on their toes heading into October, etc. etc. etc.
just looking at a player's stat line is NEVER enough to decide what is the absolute "right" and "wrong" thing to do in a situation.
o
Than wouldn't you want to clinch your playoff spot as early as possible so that you have meaningless games to test all that in? Wouldn't that make sense?
Posting Permissions
