The "Ten Games" Predictive Method

[petrel]

A general rule is that sixty percent of the time, historically speaking, a team that is on top of its division or league after the first ten games will go to the playoffs that same year.

Therefore, for 2007, I did a "first ten games" standings.

American League

East
* Toronto 6-4
w Boston 6-4
NY Yankees 5-5
Baltimore 4-6
Tampa Bay 4-6

Central
* Detroit 6-4
Cleveland 6-4
Minnesota 6-4
Chi White Sox 5-5
Kansas City 3-7

West
* LA Angels 6-4
Seattle 5-5
Texas 5-5
Oakland 4-6

National League

East
* Atlanta 7-3
NY Mets 7-3
Florida 6-4
Philadelphia 2-8
Washington 2-8

Central
* Cincinnati 6-4
Milwaukee 6-4
St. Louis 5-5
Chi Cubs 4-6
Houston 4-6
Pittsburgh 4-6

West
* LA Dodgers 7-3
w Arizona 7-3
San Diego 6-4
Colorado 5-5
San Francisco 3-7

* - division winner w - wildcard winner

Division winner and wild-cards were determined by the standard baseball tie-breaking methods. If teams evaluated have no common games in common, then we use the baseball "back half" method, where we look at "best record over last 5 games", then extend that to 6, 7, etc. games until the tie is broken.

Therefore, playoff teams:

AL: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels
NL: Braves, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks.

According to the 10-game method, only four or five of those teams listed will actually go to the postseason. Two or three will not. My question: which of those teams named as "playoff teams" will be watching the post-season on TV?

[HoustonGM]

Well, the only teams there that I think we'll definitely see in the playoffs are the Red Sox, Tigers, and Diamondbacks.

[jdiggin]

I would say quite possibly ALL of them!!

[ohms_law]

AL: Boston, NY, Detroit, LA
NL: Atlanta, NY, Cincinnati, SD

So, Toronto, Dodgers, and Arizona are out.

[mtg712]

arizona no. mets yes.
toronto no. minnesota yes.

[disposablehero]

Jays, Reds, and Snakes are out

[Clay Dreslough]

Jays, Reds, and Snakes are out

That's exactly the three I would pick. I think the Braves are better this year than most people give them credit for.

[ohms_law]

You guys really don't think that the Reds can make the playoffs again?!

[Rongar]

None of 'em watching - they'll all be out on the golf course!

I actually wrote the above at this time last year (I'm chuffed that someone thought it worth resurrecting!)

I might as well let it stand for this year, too - I'm hopeless at predicting sports winners

[petrel]

Sorry about the thread necromancy, but since we have the same subject, why not just use the same thread?

Last year, here were the predictions based on the first 10 games method:

AL East: Blue Jays -- they weren't bad at 83-79, but they finished in third
AL Central: Tigers -- finished at 88-74, good for second place
AL West: Angels -- got it right. The Halos finished at 94-68, in first place.
AL Wild Card: Red Sox -- semi-right. The Red Sox went to the playoffs, but as a first place team at 96-66.

NL East: Braves -- 84-78. Good enough for third place in a tough division.
NL Central: Reds -- very wrong. The Reds finished 72-90 and in fifth place.
NL West: Dodgers -- Nope. 82-80. Good for fourth place.
NL Wild Card: Diamondbacks -- semi-right. The Diamondbacks went 90-72 to take first place by one game.

All in all, the first ten games method was underwhelming: however, it picked three of the eight playoff teams.

Here are the 2008 playoff choices based on the ten games method:

American League

East
* Orioles 6-4
Blue Jays 5-5
Rays 5-5
Red Sox 5-5
Yankees 5-5

Central
* White Sox 6-4
Royals 6-4
Twins 5-5
Indians 4-6
Tigers 2-8

West
* Athletics 6-4
w Angels 6-4
Rangers 5-5
Mariners 4-6

The White Sox beat the Royals with a better record in divisional play. The Athletics beat the Angels with a "better" record in divisional play (0-0 vs. 1-2.) The Angels beat the Royals for the wild card based on a better record over the last seven games for each team (4-3 vs. 3-4).

National League

East
* Marlins 7-3
Mets 5-5
Braves 4-6
Phillies 4-6
Nationals 3-7

Central
* Cardinals 7-3
w Reds 6-4
Brewers 6-4
Cubs 6-4
Reds 6-4
Pirates 4-6
Astros 3-7

West
* Diamondbacks 8-2
Padres 5-5
Dodgers 4-6
Giants 4-6
Rockies 4-6

For the wildcard in the Central, the Reds have the best record considering only the Reds-Brewers-Cubs (2-1 for the Reds against 3-3 for the Brewers and 1-2 for the Cubs).

Let's see how the method does in 2008.

--Pet

[koolzach1]

Gonna be a failure this year, lol.

Orioles?
White Sox? (They could be good, though)
Athletics?
Marlins?
Cardinals?
Reds? (May surprise a few people, but probably won't win over 80 unless Cueto is an ace)

Seems this year, after the 1st 10 games, that it'll be more like the bottom feeders of each division instead of the playoff teams.

[CatKnight]

My thoughts:

BAL - Eh. Can't hold it in a tough division.
CHW - Ditto. Though it's nice to see them putting up an effort
OAK - Someone has to make the WC. Won't be them.
LAA - Still think they'll take the division.

FLA - :grin: No comment
STL - Surprising so far in a weak division.....maybe?
CIN - Maybe not.
ARI - I think these guys have a good chance actually.

So I'd say two, maybe three. Not more than that though.

[aj58078]

Ny
Cle
Laa
Sea

Ny
Chi
Ari
Lad

[HoustonGM]

BAL - No.
CHW - No.
OAK - No.
LAA - Yes

FLA - No.
STL - No.
CIN - Maybe.
ARI - A resounding YES!