Famers on the Fringe: Andre Dawson

[TacoBoy]

Wow really I don't see anyone but Henderson and raines ( although I don't think he is 1st ballot selection) Who will get in. The next 2 years will be the best chance for Dawson,Rice, Blyleven, morris, Mcgwire, to get in.

Albert Belle had a GREAT, albeit short career. Without a doubt, a doimnant player in his short time, I would vote Belle in to the Hall.... just not this year. Like Rice I think he should wait a while. It's only his 2nd year... he has time.

Sorry to say Belle has no more time as he failed to recieve enough votes to stay on the ballot..

[dolfanar]

Wow really I don't see anyone but Henderson and raines ( although I don't think he is 1st ballot selection) Who will get in. The next 2 years will be the best chance for Dawson,Rice, Blyleven, morris, Mcgwire, to get in.



Sorry to say Belle has no more time as he failed to recieve enough votes to stay on the ballot..

Really? Ouch! It's not the end of the world. His is really a case of the candle burning bright but *very* short. What's the cutoff BTW?

Here is the voting results:

2007 Hall of Fame voting results
The complete vote
(545 ballots, 409 needed for election):

Cal Ripken 537 98.5%
Tony Gwynn 532 97.6%

Rich "Goose" Gossage 388 71.2%
Jim Rice 346 63.5%

Andre Dawson 309 56.7%
Bert Blyleven 260 47.7%

Lee Smith 217 39.8%
Jack Morris 202 37.1%

Mark McGwire 128 23.5%
Tommy John 125 22.9%

Steve Garvey 115 21.1%
Others receiving votes:
Dave Concepcion 74 (13.6%), Alan Trammell 73 (13.4%), Dave Parker 62 (11.4%), Don Mattingly 54 (9.9%), Dale Murphy 50 (9.2%), Harold Baines 29 (5.3%), Orel Hershiser 24 (4.4%), Albert Belle 19 (3.5%), Paul O'Neill 12 (2.2%), Bret Saberhagen 7 (1.3%), Jose Canseco 6 (1.1%), Tony Fernandez 4 (0.7%), Dante Bichette 3 (0.6%), Eric Davis 3 (0.6%), Bobby Bonilla 2 (0.4%), Ken Caminiti 2 (0.4%), Jay Buhner 1 (0.2%), Scott Brosius 0, Wally Joyner 0, Devon White 0, Bobby Witt 0.

Jose Canseco is just... ugh. The guy had a hall of fame career, but... hwat can you say? Harold Baines is another that shocks me. Not that he didn't get in, just that he got shelacked so hard considering the career he had.

[TacoBoy]

You need 5% which is 28 votes. Baines just made it.

2007 Hall of Fame Voting 
   
 
Total ballots cast: A record 545 (including two blanks). Necessary for election: 409 votes. Minimum votes needed to remain on the ballot: 28.  
   Votes  Pct.  
Cal Ripken Jr.  537  98.5  
Tony Gwynn  532  97.6  
Rich Gossage  388  71.2  
Jim Rice  346  63.5  
Andre Dawson  309  56.7  
Bert Blyleven  260  47.7  
Lee Smith  217  39.8  
Jack Morris  202  37.1  
Mark McGwire  128  23.5  
Tommy John  125  22.9  
Steve Garvey  115  21.1  
Dave Concepcion  74  13.6  
Alan Trammell  73  13.4  
Dave Parker  62  11.4  
Don Mattingly  54  9.9  
Dale Murphy  50  9.2  
Harold Baines  29  5.3  
Orel Hershiser  24  4.4  
Albert Belle  19  3.5  
Paul O'Neill  12  2.2  
Bret Saberhagen  7  1.3  
Jose Canseco  6  1.1  
Tony Fernandez  4  0.7  
Dante Bichette  3  0.6  
Eric Davis  3  0.6  
Bobby Bonilla  2  0.4  
Ken Caminiti  2  0.4  
Jay Buhner  1  0.2  
Scott Brosius  0  0  
Wally Joyner  0  0  
Devon White  0  0  
Bobby Witt  0  0

[TacoBoy]

I think he was a case where his relationship with the media really hurt him. He also had the whole corked bat/ stolen bat incident as well...

[dolfanar]

Judging by the voting this year, and the elligible players next year, it looks like Gossage and Rice are pretty safe bets to make it in next year, which I'd be ok with. Dawson has a real good shot allso. Raines has an outside chance of making it on his first try, even though I doubt he will (And think he shouldn't in any case). BLylevin is a real dark horse, with Lee Smith as an outside longshot.

I *really* don't get the Lee Smith thing at all.

[TacoBoy]

Yeah I think Gossage is the lone selection next year. And I think Henderson and maybe Rice get in 2009. I don't think Dawson will get in. Blyleven I was stunned by how much support he lost between 2006 & 2007. I think he has the next best shot of gettin in though. I can't understand Lee smith either. He was the all time saves leader. That should count for something. But Unless there's a dramatic shift in voters minds he's not gettin in. Morris, Dawson and mattingly are three players I'd like see get in. But prolly won't. Morris ERA hurts him too much and Mattingly didn't quite have the numbers due to injuries. Dawson has the best chance out of those three but he'd have to pick up alot more votes. Raines I see sqeeking in after about 5 years or so on the ballot. Mark Grace is an intersting case, I think he'll hang around for awhile maybe even the full 15 but I don't think he'll get in. I don't think Cone has much chance considering how Blyleven can't even get in with almost 100 more wins and 1,000 more strikeouts than Cone.

[dolfanar]

I'm hoping alot of the guy's who voted for Gwynn but didn't support Rice and Dawson will give them a shot next year. From time to time you will see 3 guy's get the nod at once. So I'm hoping we'll see Rice, Dawson and Gossage next year.

Henderson is a lock for 2009. I think Blyleven might have an outside shot of making it in by then. The thing is his numbers start to look AWFULLY good when compared to the other more modern pitchers coming up for induction. Someone is bound to notice.

2010 will be another year without an obvious first year guy, but a bunch of decent shots at induction. 2011 looks like a really strong year. Tim Raines, Mark McGwire and Lee Smith will likely make it or break it here, imo.

2010 Elligible

Pitchers
Kevin Appier
Rod Beck
Pat Hentgen
Dave Burba
Shane Reynolds
Mike Jackson
Andy Ashby
Billy Koch
Sterling Hitchcock
Curt Leskanic
Mike Fetters
Jimmy Haynes

Position Players
Fred McGriff
Roberto Alomar
Edgar Martinez
Andres Galarraga
Barry Larkin
Ellis Burks
Robin Ventura
Todd Zeile
Ray Lankford
Eric Karros
Mark McLemore
David Segui
Fernando Vina
Tom Goodwin

[TacoBoy]

Is that the '10 or '11 list there. I'd say Larkin and Mcgriff prolly will get in and alomar has pretty good shot as well of gettin in.

[TacoBoy]

Also good point about Blyleven. As there really is no good pitchers up for election in the next few years. Maybe the same theory will help out Smith as well.

[dolfanar]

Is that the '10 or '11 list there. I'd say Larkin and Mcgriff prolly will get in and alomar has pretty good shot as well of gettin in.

2010

Larkin I think has the best shot of being first time in. If McGriff makes it in, and Dawson doesn't I will be PISSED OFF MAN. Dawson >>> McGriff, and I *like* Mcgriff ALOT. Agreed on Alomar. Galaragga was my favorite player back when I was a regular att the Big O, so I just hope he get's decent consideration. But man, the pitching is REALLY thin until '11.

2011

Position Players
Rafael Palmeiro
Jeff Bagwell
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
John Olerud
Marquis Grissom
Juan Gonzalez
Tino Martinez
B.J. Surhoff
Bret Boone
Raul Mondesi
Benito Santiago
Jose Offerman
Bobby Higginson
Carlos Baerga
Wil Cordero
Charles Johnson

Pitchers
John Franco
Kevin Brown
Al Leiter
Troy Percival
Hideo Nomo
Ugueth Urbina
Mike Hampton
Kirk Rueter
Wilson Alvarez
Ismael Valdez
Frank Castillo
Cal Eldred
James Baldwin
Ricky Bottalico
Brian Anderson
Paul Quantrill
Terry Adams

On numbers alon Palmeiro is a first run HOF. That's all I've got to say about that. Also, FINALLY a Pitcher I'd induct into the HOF in John Franco, but if Lee isn't in, how in the blue heavens do you justify Franco?

[ohms_law]

But thats the point. OPS+ compares a player to the other players. A player who is dominant in his era will have a high OPS+. OPS+ of 200 in 2002 is the same as an OPS+ of 200 in 1980.

Well, it compares players to the league average of for that season. If the whole league generally becomes better at getting on base (like is true now), then the percentages year on year are going to be different. Therefore, a 200 OPS+ in, say 1981, is not equivalent to a 200 OPS+ in 2006. You've gotta be careful with things like that. OPS+ in the AL vs. the NL aren't even directly comparable, for most seasons.

Blyleven I was stunned by how much support he lost between 2006 & 2007.

There were other things going on that distracted from Blyleven this year. Ripkin and Gwynn were there to be voted for, and the start of the whole McGwire, Sosa, Bonds debate was finally kicked off since Big Mac showed up on the ballot. With the voting classes that are coming up, he'll probably get in.

On numbers alon Palmeiro is a first run HOF. That's all I've got to say about that. Also, FINALLY a Pitcher I'd induct into the HOF in John Franco, but if Lee isn't in, how in the blue heavens do you justify Franco?

I agree completely.

[HoustonGM]

Well, it compares players to the league average of for that season. If the whole league generally becomes better at getting on base (like is true now), then the percentages year on year are going to be different. Therefore, a 200 OPS+ in, say 1981, is not equivalent to a 200 OPS+ in 2006. You've gotta be careful with things like that. OPS+ in the AL vs. the NL aren't even directly comparable, for most seasons.

If the whole league has a higher on-base percentage, then it makes it HARDER to ahve a higher OPS+ because you have to be significantly above the league average. Because it compares it to league average, it is able to be used to compare players from diferent eras. It shows how much above or below average you were. Like I used the Yaz/Mac example. Yaz in 1967 was just as above average as McGwire in 99.

[robinhoodnik]

I think that The Crime Dog's lack of a team identity will really hurt him. If he were on teams for longer periods he'd get in much sooner. I've heard a lot of writers say that he's not getting a vote from them at all.

EDIT: 6 teams, TBD twice. 7 switches in 19 seasons.

[HoustonGM]

I think that The Crime Dog's lack of a team identity will really hurt him. If he were on teams for longer periods he'd get in much sooner. I've heard a lot of writers say that he's not getting a vote from them at all.

EDIT: 6 teams, TBD twice. 7 switches in 19 seasons.

If that ends up being why some writers don't vote for him, that is absolutely freaking ridiculous.

Players these days simply change teams often.

[ohms_law]

If the whole league has a higher on-base percentage, then it makes it HARDER to ahve a higher OPS+ because you have to be significantly above the league average. Because it compares it to league average, it is able to be used to compare players from diferent eras. It shows how much above or below average you were. Like I used the Yaz/Mac example. Yaz in 1967 was just as above average as McGwire in 99.

It doesn't work out, though. If the underlying scale differs, you've gotta equalize them before comparing. It's the same principle as doing math with fractions. Before performing any operation, the divisors need to be made the same.

I think that The Crime Dog's lack of a team identity will really hurt him. If he were on teams for longer periods he'd get in much sooner. I've heard a lot of writers say that he's not getting a vote from them at all.

EDIT: 6 teams, TBD twice. 7 switches in 19 seasons.

If that ends up being why some writers don't vote for him, that is absolutely freaking ridiculous.

Players these days simply change teams often.

I agree with Houston. What are the writer's going to do into the future about this? Since all of the upcoming players now have spent their entire careers in the unrestricted free agency market, players that have often switched teams are going to become more and more commonplace.