Signs with the Yankees for $52 million over 4 years.
This has started a thread among Red Sox fans wondering if we have any chance of contending in 2006, with the team still trying to unload Manny for example. And wondering if the Red Sox have "a plan".
About a year ago, I think I even remember Theo saying things to the extent of "we don't want to hurt this team in the long term by making short-term moves".
He's got a great point. We don't want to trade the next Bagwell. But an attitude like that is also indicative of a plan. Namely, now that the Red Sox have won a World Championship, focus less on winning this year, and more on building a perpetual contender, like Atlanta.
Of course, its tough to win 11 straight division titles when you're in the same division with Steinbrenner. In fact, despite the World Championship banner, we still haven't won the division in quite some time.
The CW is that Theo and his those who worked with him (and are now running the place) are "Moneyball" disciples. Like the A's of the 1990s, they focus on putting together a team at the least expense. But those A's played in a weaker division and never got past the first round of the playoffs. The Red Sox can't build a team like that and still keep Red Sox Nation happy.
Now that we have two GMs, maybe one of them should be the "Moneyball GM", doing his best to spend $55 million to fill 21 roster spots and the balance of the 40-man roster. Then we can tell the other GM to spend the other $65 million to fill 6 roster spots.
Take the Oakland A's and add the following 6 superstars and you've got a 100-win team:
Vlad Guerrero: $12,500,000
Bartolo Colon: $10,000,000
Miguel Tejada: $10,781,000
Jim Thome: $13,167,000
Ken Griffey: $10,365,000
Kerry Wood: $9,500,000
Note. I tried not to "cheat" in building this list. I just started at 'A' (Anaheim) and went through each roster grabbing the most expensive guys. This list has guys like Vlad that are probably underpaid. But also has guys like Thome, Griffey and Wood that are aging and/or struggling with injuries.
Nevertheless, it seems to me the big hole in the Red Sox strategy is forgetting to realize that it is possible for a player to earn an eight-figure salary and still be worth the money.
Manny Ramirez is an excellent example. They've been trying to unload him since Theo arrived. But if you pick any bunch of post-arbitration guys at random in the majors earning a total of $19.8 million -- I'm guessing you'd rather have Manny than those guys.
OK. Let's try it. I randomly picked the Tigers.
Starting with their highest paid Tigers: Ivan Rodriguez $8M, Dmitri Young $8m, Carlos Guillen $4M.
I'd rather have Manny.
Starting with the cheaper (post-arbitration) Tigers: Craig Monroe ($400K), Jamie Walker ($900K), Todd Jones ($1,1M), Brandon Inge ($1.35M), Carlos Pena ($2.6M), Kenny Rogers ($3.3M), Placido Polanco ($4.6M), Troy Percival ($5.9M).
There's some talent there. But it's still an easy decision. I'd rather have Manny. That kind of bat in the lineup is irreplaceable.
The lesson I've learned from Baseball Mogul Online is to get and keep the best talent. Guys like Albert Pujols never end up in Free Agency.
You surround the stars with replacement players, and you have a winning team. It's the middle guys -- paying $6M+ for Jaret Wright or Randy Wolf -- that hurts a team.
I'm still not entirely sure where to come down on the Johnny Damon signing. He led the majors in on-base percentage among center fielders, and he seems to cover a lot of ground. So like Manny, he's essentially irreplaceable at the top of the lineup. But it also looks like he's already had his peak years -- and he's not an MVP candidate like Vlad or Manny or A-Rod. In that case, $13M is simply too much, and you need to spend it somewhere else.
Johnny WILL be the next Bernie Williams. An aging superstar who the Yankees are trying to replace. But I'm not sure how long it will take him to get there.
