The OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL Fantasy Sports General Chat Thread®

The stolen bases are out of line with his minor league career and are a big part of his high fantasy ranking (though obviously not everything).

He's been very good, and he should continue to be very good, but his fantasy upside going forward, realistically, is Brandon Phillips - .280 avg, 20 HR, 20 SB, 80 RBI, 80 R (IF he's actually significantly improved his SB ability - otherwise its more like 10 SB). That's a very good player - top 50 fantasy player, but not Pujols (who was ranked 13th last year in a down year for him) or Lee (30th in 2010, 8th in 2011).

(Yahoo! rankings)

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

The stolen bases are out of line with his minor league career and are a big part of his high fantasy ranking (though obviously not everything).

He's been very good, and he should continue to be very good, but his fantasy upside going forward, realistically, is Brandon Phillips - .280 avg, 20 HR, 20 SB, 80 RBI, 80 R (IF he's actually significantly improved his SB ability - otherwise its more like 10 SB). That's a very good player - top 50 fantasy player, but not Pujols (who was ranked 13th last year in a down year for him) or Lee (30th in 2010, 8th in 2011).

(Yahoo! rankings)

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Yes and Pujols is having an even worse year this year & after 2+ plus months neither Lee or Pujols is in even the top 100. I like Lee alot, but I tend to value pitchers less than most people. Pujols I think is a declining player. I see Kipnis as a player on the rise. That's just my personal opinion on them but there are stats to support it.

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

Yes and Pujols is having an even worse year this year & after 2+ plus months neither Lee or Pujols is in even the top 100. I like Lee alot, but I tend to value pitchers less than most people. Pujols I think is a declining player. I see Kipnis as a player on the rise. That's just my personal opinion on them but there are stats to support it.

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I don't place much weight, if any, into two months of stats. And yes, Pujols is declining and Kipnis is up and coming, but what Kipnis has done so far is a reasonable expectation for his peak performance. He's 25, which is no longer young for a prospect, and is unlikely to get better than he already is.

And Lee's only not in the top 100 due to his 0 wins, which has nothing to do with how he has pitched - if he had even 4 or 5 wins, he'd rank in the 50-75 range.

Kipnis is good, like I said, but he just isn't Pujols or Lee, which is no slight at all - few players are.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Kipnis is good, like I said, but he just isn't Pujols or Lee, which is no slight at all - few players are.

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You mean He isn't Pujols in Lee in their peak fantasy seasons. But this isn't Lee or Pujols peak fantasy seasons.

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

You mean He isn't Pujols in Lee in their peak fantasy seasons. But this isn't Lee or Pujols peak fantasy seasons.

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Kipnis has been better than both Pujols and Lee in fantasy so far this season, but that's not the question at hand, and two months of performance are not all you use to predict what will happen going forward (For example, during the last 30 days, Pujols has been #9 in fantasy, and Kipnis has been #14). Any reasonable projection of performance would rate both Pujols and Lee above Kipnis going forward.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Kipnis has been better than both Pujols and Lee in fantasy so far this season, but that's not the question at hand, and two months of performance are not all you use to predict what will happen going forward (For example, during the last 30 days, Pujols has been #9 in fantasy, and Kipnis has been #14). Any reasonable projection of performance would rate both Pujols and Lee above Kipnis going forward.

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At the end of the year, I believe Kipnis will be higher ranked than Pujols and Lee. Meaning he gave more value to your team and therefore had a better fantasy season. But I get your point that if a trade was made it would be who would be better from that point forward which isn't so clear.

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

At the end of the year, I believe Kipnis will be higher ranked than Pujols and Lee at the end of the season. Meaning he gave more value to your team and therefore had a better fantasy season. But I get your point that if a trade was made it would be who would be better from that point forward which isn't so clear.

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It's certainly possible that Kipnis finishes the season with a higher rank, but that obviously includes the first two months of the season during which Kipnis likely has played over his head or at about what he will perform over the rest of the season, and Pujols has performed way worse than he will for the rest of the year, and Lee has had terrible luck and thus no wins. As you said, when making a trade, what has already happened is irrelevant to the trade beyond what it informs of you performance going forward (which is relatively little). All that matters is what you will get from here on out. It's possible Kipnis is better than one or both of Pujols and Lee over the course of the rest of the season, but it's highly unlikely given what we know about the players.

Just as an exercise, take a look at their ZiPS rest of season projections:

Cliff Lee: 126 IP, 8 wins, 123 K, 2.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Albert Pujols: .291 BA, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 59 R, 6 SB
Jason Kipnis: .265 BA, 12 HR, 48 RBI, 57 R, 12 SB

point is that pujols is likely to have a better remainder to the season than Kipnis but of course nobody knows for sure. For me though, as 2B is a much harder position to get quality offense out of, Pujols would have to be quite a bit better than Kipnis, which is also very possible. You have to factor in the production you can get from your 1B if its not pujols or from your 2B if its not kipnis and guestimate where you are better off.

if the deal was just kipnis for pujols, i'd think the guy dealing pujols is making a mistake though honestly i have to say i would be ok with it. With Lee included it really makes it lopsided though i have to be honest....i'm not certain after having a couple days to think about it that it is in fact collusive. You have to let people make mistakes, make their own moves, and nobody is always right. What seemed like a ludicrous deal initially still seems lopsided though i'm not certain it's egregiously collusive. Just a dummy...and if someone can sell ice to an eskimo more power to them.

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Originally Posted by dickay

if the deal was just kipnis for pujols, i'd think the guy dealing pujols is making a mistake though honestly i have to say i would be ok with it. With Lee included it really makes it lopsided though i have to be honest....i'm not certain after having a couple days to think about it that it is in fact collusive. You have to let people make mistakes, make their own moves, and nobody is always right. What seemed like a ludicrous deal initially still seems lopsided though i'm not certain it's egregiously collusive. Just a dummy...and if someone can sell ice to an eskimo more power to them.

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Collusive or not, I still wouldn't let it go through if I was commish. It doesn't have to actually be collusive to still be detrimental and unfair to the league as a whole.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Collusive or not, I still wouldn't let it go through if I was commish. It doesn't have to actually be collusive to still be detrimental and unfair to the league as a whole.

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couldn't disagree more with this. fantasy leagues should let teams operate freely providing it's not obvious collusion. too many times i've seen the league veto a trade claiming it unfair and it turned out it was opposite how the league felt. People should be allowed to take chances, it's their team.

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Originally Posted by dickay

couldn't disagree more with this. fantasy leagues should let teams operate freely providing it's not obvious collusion. too many times i've seen the league veto a trade claiming it unfair and it turned out it was opposite how the league felt. People should be allowed to take chances, it's their team.

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"Collusive" to me implies...colluding. A team can decide to tank and trade its best players for little return without colluding, but that still shouldn't be allowed.

Is it time to cut bait with Lincecum? I've got Cliff Lee, Greinke, Cain, McDonald, Vogelsong and Miley so I'm not hurting on pitching.
Would you sell him for pennies on the dollar or even straight out cut him or just bench him hoping he turns it around?

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Originally Posted by MichelleWie

I'm going to keep beating the Kipnis drum here. ESPN has him ranked as the 5th best player OVERALL in fantasy so far. Yahoo has him ranked 6th.

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How on earth do these numbers make him the fifth best fantasy player in baseball? I don't get that.

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Originally Posted by Kobie

How on earth do these numbers make him the fifth best fantasy player in baseball? I don't get that.

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He's fifth in runs, 17th in RBI, 7th in SB, 53rd in avg, 41st in HR. Combine that with both positional scarcity and stat scarcity (SB are more valuable), and he's been one of the top guys overall.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

"Collusive" to me implies...colluding. A team can decide to tank and trade its best players for little return without colluding, but that still shouldn't be allowed.

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obviously someone giving up and trying to make a mockery of the league shouldn't be allowed either. this wasn't nearly that though....and not letting those kind of trades go through just because you think they are unfair is bs.

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Originally Posted by asianinvasion

Is it time to cut bait with Lincecum? I've got Cliff Lee, Greinke, Cain, McDonald, Vogelsong and Miley so I'm not hurting on pitching.
Would you sell him for pennies on the dollar or even straight out cut him or just bench him hoping he turns it around?

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i'd keep him. i wouldn't give up on him yet...

Keeper league or just a straight re-draft after every season league?

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Originally Posted by etothep

Keeper league or just a straight re-draft after every season league?

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Regular league. No Keepers

My bad,m my keeper or regular league question was in regard to dickay's trade

If you can find someone willing to trade for lincecum, then unload him. 1 QS in 13 GS? No signs of really turning things around. Only league I have him in is the weird one where I have to keep 5 Giants players. Tired of starting him & having to count on my other pitchers to off-set the damage he does, so he's gonna be wasting a bench spot for me while I hope he can turn it around next season

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Originally Posted by dickay

obviously someone giving up and trying to make a mockery of the league shouldn't be allowed either. this wasn't nearly that though....and not letting those kind of trades go through just because you think they are unfair is bs.

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Yeah but a "veto for collusion only" policy doesn't work on its own, because how are you supposed to know if something is collusion? It's not like you can read anyone's mind when they make a trade. The only evidence you have of collusion is whether the trade is reasonable.

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Originally Posted by etothep

My bad,m my keeper or regular league question was in regard to dickay's trade

If you can find someone willing to trade for lincecum, then unload him. 1 QS in 13 GS? No signs of really turning things around. Only league I have him in is the weird one where I have to keep 5 Giants players. Tired of starting him & having to count on my other pitchers to off-set the damage he does, so he's gonna be wasting a bench spot for me while I hope he can turn it around next season

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Well I'm trying to trade you Vogelsong, doofus.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

Yeah but a "veto for collusion only" policy doesn't work on its own, because how are you supposed to know if something is collusion? It's not like you can read anyone's mind when they make a trade. The only evidence you have of collusion is whether the trade is reasonable.

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it should be glaringly obvious that it's collusive or as said a ridiculous trade made to make a mockery. this trade was nowheres near that upon further investigation. if the two involved can explain their position, whether or not anyone thinks its "fair" shouldn't matter providing its not one of the aforementioned. As has been stated, it's perfectly possible that Morse/Kipnis will outperform Pujols/Lee the remainder of the year. It's also possible a team could be loaded at 1B and pitching and want to get some OF/2B help. If one team can sell another on making this type of trade...more power to them.

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Originally Posted by etothep

Keeper league or just a straight re-draft after every season league?

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this deal was in my pay league, which is year to year no keepers. alot of debate, and originally i was like WTF....but after i heard from both owners and thought about it more I don't think it's near the type of trade that should be vetoed. It's certainly IMO a dumb deal for the team dealing Pujols/Lee....but i've seen many of these type trades that ended up going the other way. It's not outlandish or collusive. What made it fishy off the bat was that the team dealing Pujols is the last place team. But it's clear he hasn't given up and is not trying to make a mockery of the league out of spite.

There'd have to be a really severe case of 2B deficiency to make that trade reasonable. I can see why Kipnis would be considered valuable (clearly MichelleWie loves him some Kipnis), but the Morse angle is nonsense.

But hey, if you think the owners are being reasonable, go for it.

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Originally Posted by dickay

obviously someone giving up and trying to make a mockery of the league shouldn't be allowed either. this wasn't nearly that though....and not letting those kind of trades go through just because you think they are unfair is bs.

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Trading two of the top players in the game with a long track record of top fantasy performances for a rookie and a guy with one good year in his career coming off an injury sounds exactly like somebody giving up.

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Originally Posted by dickay

As has been stated, it's perfectly possible that Morse/Kipnis will outperform Pujols/Lee the remainder of the year.

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Just because it's "possible" doesn't mean that it's reasonable.

AOW, when you gonna stop lumping Josh Johnson in with Tim Lincecum?

My team is a disgrace. kthx

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

AOW, when you gonna stop lumping Josh Johnson in with Tim Lincecum?

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If discussing the first 6 weeks of the season, I'll probably continue to do it for eternity. If discussing anything beyond that, probably over.

I actually started JJ yesterday, against the Sox, after seeing the Sox destroyed by the likes of the Nats for a weekend. Glad I did. Of course I feel like an idiot for trading or dropping or whatever I did with JJ in the other league. Oh well - I picked him up off waivers in this one, so my JJ karma is balanced.

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

If discussing the first 6 weeks of the season, I'll probably continue to do it for eternity. If discussing anything beyond that, probably over.

I actually started JJ yesterday, against the Sox, after seeing the Sox destroyed by the likes of the Nats for a weekend. Glad I did. Of course I feel like an idiot for trading or dropping or whatever I did with JJ in the other league. Oh well - I picked him up off waivers in this one, so my JJ karma is balanced.

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wow...are you the same guy that didn't want to start a true ace against the yankees but no started JJ against the Sox????? Given JJ's inconcistency this year, and the Sox having a top 3 offense I sat JJ. Despite the good game i'm fine missing it as it was the right move. I'm kind of shocked you went from not wanting to start a top ace (forget who it was) against a worst hitting team than the Sox and then start JJ against the sox. Are you using a magic 8-ball to make these choices lol?

hahaha no, just common sense - JJ put it together, his velocity is back. Unlike Lincecum he has returned to form...he's a dominant pitcher in his home park that the Sox haven't faced in 3 years. That's a winning combo.

then you add in the offense of the Marlins now (HanRam, Reyes, Stanton, etc), the Sox hitting without a DH, and the Sox' terrible OF, and losing one of middlebrooks/youk/ortiz/agonz without a DH. After seeing them flail so badly against Gio Gonzales and Jordan Zimmermann, I went ballsy and played JJ.

What was the worst that could happen, Podsednik gets on base 4 times? AGonz is in a funk, Salty is striking out for like 14 consecutive at-bats...there just isn't a lot to fear in the Sox lineup right now.

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Originally Posted by Alloutwar

hahaha no, just common sense - JJ put it together, his velocity is back. Unlike Lincecum he has returned to form...he's a dominant pitcher in his home park that the Sox haven't faced in 3 years. That's a winning combo.

then you add in the offense of the Marlins now (HanRam, Reyes, Stanton, etc), the Sox hitting without a DH, and the Sox' terrible OF, and losing one of middlebrooks/youk/ortiz/agonz without a DH. After seeing them flail so badly against Gio Gonzales and Jordan Zimmermann, I went ballsy and played JJ.

What was the worst that could happen, Podsednik gets on base 4 times? AGonz is in a funk, Salty is striking out for like 14 consecutive at-bats...there just isn't a lot to fear in the Sox lineup right now.

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well, you went balsy said enough. The Sox did struggle against the Nats but they have the 3rd most productive offense in baseball. If you don't fear them with an inconsistent arm like JJ i don't know how you can fear any offense in baseball with a true ace.

good move, my breaches are burning a bit over not starting him, or jimmies are rustled, or whatever the forums favorite saying is of late.

Yep, compare the velocity charts of Johnson and Lincecum. Lincecum has been bouncing around all year while Johnson has been trending upward, which is totally understandable given he was returning from injury. He's been very good AND consistent over the last month and a half. Plus, as I said last time this topic came up, he's been posting solid peripheral numbers all year, whereas Lincecum's control has been abysmal.

In other words, concern about Johnson was always an overreaction to ERA in a small sample, while concern about Lincecum has been legitimate for a while now due to decreased velocity and control.

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Originally Posted by HoustonGM

Yep, compare the velocity charts of Johnson and Lincecum. Lincecum has been bouncing around all year while Johnson has been trending upward, which is totally understandable given he was returning from injury. He's been very good AND consistent over the last month and a half. Plus, as I said last time this topic came up, he's been posting solid peripheral numbers all year, whereas Lincecum's control has been abysmal.

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don't get me wrong, i like Johnson and traded for him. Unfortuantely I traded Mike Trout who I dont' think anyone really expected him to perform as well as he has this early in his career...but anyway, despite my like for JJ I didn't think he was a safe start against Boston.

got offered lincecum for dickey

you people

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Originally Posted by etothep

got offered lincecum for dickey

you people

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I think its fair in a dynasty league. You said you are playing for next year. What do you think you are going to get for a 37 year old knuckle ball pitcher in a dynasty league? It's a little bit of gamble but if Lincecum returns to even 80% of his former self you make out like a bandit. You might not like it but it is fair. Anyway your counter was even funnier. Jason Hammels and Dickey for half my team!

i just traded Cueto and Middlebrooks for Cuddyer. How bad do you think I got taken?

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Originally Posted by dickay

i just traded Cueto and Middlebrooks for Cuddyer. How bad do you think I got taken?

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In terms of being taken for a ride, this is around the world in 80 days.

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Originally Posted by haveacigar

In terms of being taken for a ride, this is around the world in 80 days.

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you think it was bad for me? cueto IMO is not as good as his numbers. thought i was trading high for some needed offense. Brooks is good, strikes out alot and playing time is going to be an issue the way through. Cuddyer is a middle of the order hitter on one of the leagues best offenses. He should hit better in COL than he did in MIN. He's getting hot and is eligible at multiple positions.

I thought brooks is the wildcard. if youk gets traded, which is very possible but far from probable, and he can continue to hit how he has....even with his K's i'll likely end up on the short end of this deal.

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Originally Posted by dickay

i just traded Cueto and Middlebrooks for Cuddyer. How bad do you think I got taken?

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If its a keeper league, please show everyone where he touched you with this doll.
If its not a keeper league, eh. I guess it's not too bad