It's never too early to start this conversation. How would you handle the situation?
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It's never too early to start this conversation. How would you handle the situation?
You keep both.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
With a player like this who basically coaches, scouts, and GM's pretty much agree this kid is special, I would have no problem drafting him and trading Manning away. Another thing to consider is that if you keep Manning, you have to give him a roster bonus of 28 million if you still have him by March.
Another reason to trade Manning, is you see a lot of QB's come in and have success, and I don't have much doubt Luck would be the same as Dalton in the weak AFC south.
Manning's probably going to restructure his deal to pay the bonus later/make it less. You are not going to get good value from Manning, and you risk losing revenue from fans since you're trading away the best Colt ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by ragecage
A lot of QBs do have success coming in but not a lot of them improve/go into "Championship QB" level. Stafford, Ryan, Newton, Dalton, Sanchez etc...all QBs with success but none of them are even close to Brees/Brady/Manning/Rodgers etc level sans maybe Newton. You can still win a championship with Manning now. Have him mentor Luck for two-three years like Rodgers/Favre Montana/Young and be set for the next 10-15 years.
Besides, I wouldn't trust the Colts coaching staff to develop Luck well, especially with them probably cleaning house (they started with the GM already).
As is right now, he's going to be due that 28 million and right now, I wouldn't pay for it for anyone who has had 3 neck surgeries. With the NFL, they will have no issue filling seats to see Andrew Luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by President
You're assuming Manning will be his old self. He has been out of the league going on well over a year by next pre-season. We don't even know if he will be the same player. I don't believe Luck needs to be mentored for 3 years. Stanford educated, I think he will transition smoothly to the NFL and you don't need the burden of a costly contract Peyton has in a salary cap league.Quote:
A lot of QBs do have success coming in but not a lot of them improve/go into "Championship QB" level. Stafford, Ryan, Newton, Dalton, Sanchez etc...all QBs with success but none of them are even close to Brees/Brady/Manning/Rodgers etc level sans maybe Newton. You can still win a championship with Manning now. Have him mentor Luck for two-three years like Rodgers/Favre Montana/Young and be set for the next 10-15 years.
We don't even know who they are going to hire to make that assumption. Oh and you forget, they can probably get a top name coach just the fact alone Andrew Luck will be your QB.Quote:
Besides, I wouldn't trust the Colts coaching staff to develop Luck well, especially with them probably cleaning house (they started with the GM already).
Peyton is one of those players who will likely be the same, so I don't worry even if he had the 3 neck surgeries. Peyton is 35 right now, I'm hoping he plays at most 3 more years to mentor Luck. You're assuming Peyton's contract will remain the same, while I'm assuming he's going to restructure it.Quote:
Originally Posted by ragecage
I don't think Luck is going to transition well into the NFL, or at least not as good as being mentored by Peyton. Luck, although he is a big name, is not enough to replace revenue generated by Peyton, especially if Peyton comes back. I don't see why having Luck as a QB will draw a good HC, especially in a weak market where the only coach who is seemingly out there is Fisher, since Gruden et all declined. And everyone else is going to chase after Fisher. I really do think it's better to keep Manning, even with the salary hit which I do think will be a lot less.
Maybe it's my bias of Peyton being one of the GOATs and should remain a Colt forever, but I think Luck and the Colts will benefit having Peyton for at least one more year
I love Peyton Manning. He is first ballot HoF. Though, his age, the injury, the cost of having him (even if he restructures) it's not worth it in the long run.
This is the perfect time for the Colts to gut the system and rebuild.
Draft Luck. Trade Manning and get more draft picks.
Should be able to lure in a top name coach in this situation.
Trade them both, trade for Matt Flynn and start him instead.
Only way he restructures his deal in any way is if a no-trade clause is added to his deal (as if he restructures his current deal, it only hurts him as it either lowers his guaranteed $ or makes him easier to trade or likely both)Quote:
Originally Posted by President
If Manning wont restructure then trade him. If he is willing to then I think the Colts keep for a year and re-evalute. It will only help Luck in the long run. If they get rid of Manning and he tears up the league then the Colts fans will be PISSED. I think Manning has a higher performance ceiling than Luck this year. If the Colts trade him and Luck gets hurt early on then the fans will be PISSED. If you keep Manning for this year and he gets hurt, then the Colts get lucky. I think the salary cap hit, even restructured, will be worth it for a year.
Honestly, keep the dude for at least a year. I think Luck could contribute right away as I think he's a Matt Ryan-esque QB. But I think anyone could benefit behind Peyton Manning....except Tebow. Cause he's already the best.
I don't think it's wrong to keep Manning, as you can see the team has many issues without him so trade him and get some draft picks and rebuild.
This firestorm that will be created by him being traded I think will never happen. People said the same thing about Joe Montana and look how that worked out for San Francisco. If Peyton was 32, that would be one thing, but he will be 36 next year.
Just reading this..i think Rage brings up more valid pts and this does sound like fanboy stuff. Not trying to insult you...its just that in no world will Peyton sell more jerseys/merchandise than Luck next year. Largely because many have Manning stuff already and the new stud on the block is always the most popular. It won't be close in fact...Luck will run away with it IMHO. In addition, every article i've read on luck from "experts" over the past two years (he was thought to be going pro last year) is that Luck should transition well to the NFL game given his background, skill set and Stamfords offense. You saying he won't transition well is so far out of the box that it too just seems like a convenient way to reinforce your fanboy position.Quote:
Originally Posted by President
Finally....if you don't think head coaches would be drooling to take over the Colts with Luck you're crazy. A team coming off a 2-win season getting the highest rated NFL QB to come out of college since Elway/Manning??? Only winning 2 games last year and with a rookie QB the coach would have plenty of leeway to build the team over the next few years and would not be expected to win immediately. This is the situation coaches dream of....a chance to build a system from the ground up with a young franchise QB and time.
From someone on the outside looking in....rage's arguments seem much more plausible.
this makes alot of sense in that i'd rather deal Manning a year after he proves he's OK health wise....though on the flip side, what if he struggles on a bad bad team? Then his value actually will drop. Lets say you restructure, this is how i see it;Quote:
Originally Posted by Rexington
1. You push back the cap hit to years when Manning is not with the team hurting the team for future years
2. Even if he has an OK year, he'll be 36/37? I don't think his stock will climb much higher than it currently is even with the injury.
3. If he struggles, his stock drops significantly.
as it is right now, the Colts should easily be able to land a #1 for manning even with the injury. Heck the Eagles got a very good CB and a 2nd for Kolb for crying out loud. At worst the Colts should do significantly better than that for Manning. The raiders gave up two #1s for Palmer. Point is, there's many playoff contending teams that would be in the market for Mannings services and would pay alot. I'd call Dan Snyder first and foremost though :)
Anyway I'm leaning towards trading him as the pros outweigh the cons. You aren't going to get much more for Manning that you can get now, you don't hamper your team with future cap issues, and you don't have the drama...but you do have what you acquired for Manning, which should be significant, to start your rebuilding.
Mannings been great for Indy..its time they turn the page. They will send him out in class and the fans will understand why it had to be done.
I just don't see them drafting Luck and sitting him on the bench for a year or more. If you draft Luck I think you have to start him. Manning's 28 million plus whatever salary Luck would draw as the #1 overall pick would be alot of money spent on one position. We'll get the first clue when we see what happens to Caldwell. If he's fired I think it's a good indication Peyton won't be back. I don't think there will be much firestorm from the fans, either. This isn't Favre/Rodgers situation. The fans/team already have had a year to get used to no Peyton. I think the bigger question for other team GM's is what would you rather do. Trade for Peyton or sign Flynn?
The return for Manning will be very little, because of his age and health issues. Keep em both, let Luck ride the pine and learn, and take over a la Rodgers.
Why.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
A team is not going to spend that kinda a money on 2 QB's. 28 million plus whatever deal Luck gets as the #1 overall pick.(Not sure what Newton got last year) Maybe 40 million total. Not happening. Maybe u can get Manning to restructure but that's a big if. And if I'm Luck I don't go to Indy unless I can start right away. What is to stop him from pulling an Elway or Eli move. I don't see it happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kobie
no way!! if he's given a clean bill of health from the doctors at worst you're talking #2 picks + and more likely a late #1 from a contending team in need of a QB. Age aside, Manning will bring a good return.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kobie
We assume Peyton would restructure but it would have to be deferred money paid well into the future after Peyton moves on elsewhere...and thats not necessarily desirable for the colts. Also, why would Peyton want to restructure to play on a bad team and train a kid who many feel could start right away when he could go to a contender and play at a high level for a championship. All rational signs point to them parting ways.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
also....how's peyton's contract structured? when does this 28 mil kick in? What i'm getting at is that the colts may have to just release him prior to the contract taking effect. teams may realize the colts are on the hook for that 28 mil if they don't trade him by a certain time and not make an offer thinking he'll be released outright and free to negotiate under more desireable terms? I dunno the specifics of his remaining deal...but it could be an obstacle that makes Peyton a bit harder to trade that i hadn't thought of earlier.
I voted keep both, but really I think it boils down to what someone is willing to offer you for Manning. If you get a good enough offer, you can't turn it down given his age and the uncertainty about his health.
If your the Colts you've gotta trade Manning. Luck is your quarterback of the future, not Peyton and somebody will be willing to pay over-the-top for one of the best quarterbacks ever, and you can use those pieces to build around Luck.
You have a better chance to keep the winning atmosphere around Andrew Luck by not rushing him. I understand everyone thinks he's a Matt Ryan type guy and I do too. But the risk is too great if Andrew Luck is NOT Matt Ryan and fails because he was rushed.
What's the pain if you have Manning? You over pay a guy to start for a year or two while Luck learns from a hall of famer? Oh no, how horrible.
The Colts, outside of Manning, aren't that great.
Take Luck, trade Peyton for some help in other areas. Work Luck in as appropiate
I believe if he is on the roster mar 1 he is due the money. If he agrees the date could be moved back though. It is very interesting. It gives him alot of leverage because before he is traded a new contract will have to be worked out with the new team. I don't see anyone taking on the contract as its currently structured. So he will have a lot say as to where he goes. That does kinda limit the return for indy since other teams know they have no choice but to release him or trade him to a team of his choice. It is kinda similar to when the Packers had to trade Favre. They still ended up getting I think a 2nd rounder for him which wasn't bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by dickay
Here is a good article that clarifies alot of the contract stuff
Quote:
I believe there's a strong argument that it's in the best interest of the Colts and Manning to restructure his contract before March 8. Then he would remain a Colt through at least the 2012 season and pair with Luck to form potentially the NFL's best quarterback tandem (and this season again proved how important a strong backup quarterback is... see Indy, Chicago and Kansas City and their lost seasons).
A restructuring can't happen unless the Colts' doctors first deem Manning NFL-ready by early March. If they don't, the Colts will terminate the contract before the bonus is due and release Manning. That would result in a $16 million salary cap hit for Indy in 2012 due to acceleration of the final four years on Manning's $20 million signing bonus (part of the five-year, $90 million extension signed last July). Then Manning would retire or try to catch on with another NFL team if he can pass its physical.
If, as expected, Manning is cleared medically by the Colts, things get a lot more complicated. The bull's-eye will then be on the $28 million bonus. It is very unlikely the Colts would ever pay that bonus. If they do and Peyton can't fulfill the five-year deal, they'll have more signing bonus accelerating into their salary cap if he is released or traded. For example, if the Colts pay the $28 million and Peyton gets hurt again and is forced to retire after the 2012 season or if the Colts wanted to trade him, they would have dead money of $33 million hit their cap ($12 million from his original signing bonus plus $21 million from the option bonus). That just won't fly for the Colts.
Manning can't be traded before the March 8 bonus date since trading does not begin until the start of the 2012 League Year, on March 13. Releasing him doesn't free up a bunch of money for the Colts to sign other free agents because of the $16 million cap hit on his signing bonus.
So that brings us to Irsay and his new GM most likely trying to restructure the contract by the March 8 deadline with the primary goal of reconfiguring the $28 million option bonus and turning it into future base salary that is not guaranteed (with perhaps some incentives for high playing time and championships).
Then things get interesting as Manning and agent Tom Condon push back in this high stakes negotiation.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1iVApfN1c
2-14 != winning atmosphereQuote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
I don't buy into the notion that QB's have to sit a year anymore. Especially someone as good as Luck.
yeah..thanks. as i suspected that contract is going to make it real difficult to trade him. The huge ramifactions of accelerating that bonus is going to make it hard for the colts to move him whenever tbh. Even if they restructure this year and deal him next year it'll be a large hit then and more cap space eaten up now. If not for that contract he'd bring a good return now however no team is going to want to take that contract on knowing the position the colts are in and that an outright release is very possible. If they restructure and rid of some of the bonus that makes this years cap value greater and finding a suitor more difficult.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichelleWie
I don't know...you take the hit now and release him or you restructure and take a hit later but hope you can get some value if he comes back and performs. I'd still say turn the page, take the hit now, and wish him the best. Any value you may get in return will be offset by the moves you can make the the extra cap dollars after next season when that money comes off the cap.
IMO, the sitting and watching a verteran as a way to learn how to play the position has always been way over-rated. The way to learn to play the position is to get on the field and play.Quote:
Originally Posted by ragecage
One bad year suddenly=LOSING ATMOSPHERE FOR DECADES
Peyton Manning lead this team to two super bowls and won one, considering playoff appearances they are a dynasty. That is a winning atmosphere and a winning quarterback. Two years ago they probably could have gone undefeated. One year when Peyton doesn't take a snap and suddenly they no longer have a winning atmosphere? Talking about overrating things....
i agree in general. it depends largely upon their collegiate experience and system they were running. There are some college systems that translate well to the pro game and there are some that are a different language. If the latter, and the QB isn't as adept at reading NFL style defenses and learning the playbook then by all means they need to sit and learn in practice and by watching. In Luck's instance, there is absolutely no gain in sitting him. He played in a pro style at Stanford against high level competition. Supposedly he's as good as they come at reading defenses and making adjustments at the line. He's the highest rated QB out of college since former Stanford QB John Elway (yes I feel he's higher rated than Peyton was out of Tenn). Luck would've been the #1 overall last year and stayed for another year of seasoning. The best way for him to improve is to play...not sit.Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
Elway probably needed a year of sitting, tbh.
I don't think Luck does need a year of sitting, I think he's going to be good enough to start day one in the NFL, I'm just saying what if he fails and he could have succeeded by sitting a year. It's not the worst thing in the world if he sits a year behind Peyton Manning. It's not like you're benching him behind Donovan McNabb(Minnesota)
Very true with Matt Ryan kicking off that trend.Quote:
Originally Posted by dps
Having watched the Browns for the past few years, I have to wonder what happens to the Colts if Luck busts. Yes, it's not likely, but as I recall Brady Quinn was supposed to be Cleveland's answer.
Keep Manning. For one thing, it'd be classy of Indianapolis to let him have a 'farewell' season and would please the fanboyz. For another, it gives the Colts a year to watch Luck develop and let him get used to the NFL. Give him a quarter or so a game to 'practice.' If Manning doesn't have it anymore, then give him more time. If Manning's still good, then maybe Luck will learn something.
http://mimg.ugo.com/201012/0/7/7/134...rl_480x360.jpg
Comparing Luck to Quinn
Sure, it seems like that now, because we know that Quinn didn't succeed as an NFL QB. But, he played in a pro-style offense in college, had success in that system, and seemed to have all the tools needed to be a successful NFL QB. No, he wasn't as good in college as Luck, but very few ever have been.Quote:
Originally Posted by etothep
To put it another way, at the end of his college career, Quinn looked like a far, far better pro prospect than another Notre Dame QB from an earlier generation named Joe Montana.
I could possibly be wrong here, but I don't remember anyone saying Quinn was the best, most sure-fire QB prospect since Manning or Elway. I don't think some of you guys understand the magnitude of just how much hype Luck is getting. Quinn was talked about as one of the better QB prospects in a bad QB draft class (Jamarcus Russell went #1). Luck is being talked about as a type of QB prospect who comes around once every 10-15 yearsQuote:
Originally Posted by dps
The only reason to sit a guy is because either a. he has mechanical flaws that compromises his accuracy, throwing strength, etc. (see Jake Locker and Tim Tebow) or b. he comes from a spread, pistol or other odd college offense (which doesn't even seem to make that much of a difference anymore, seeing how both Dalton and Newton came from spread offenses). Luck has fantastic mechanics and comes from a pro-style system at Stanford. Sitting him would be stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by OregonDuck1989
This is why I think it's so unlikely that Luck and Manning ever are on the team together. There is no way Andrew Luck is going to sit on the bench especially after watching all these other rookie QB's have success. Luck and his agent have some say in the matter. I could easily see him refusing to play there if he's not going to start.Quote:
Originally Posted by etothep